01 · 2 legs
Safe
- CD Eldense to win47%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
Segunda División26°23 km/h
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CD EldenseBalanced & physicalvs
CádizPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · CD Eldense (47%)
CD Eldense – Cádiz · Segunda División
1 · CD Eldense 47%X 28%25% Cádiz · 2
47%
28%
25%
Analysis: CD Eldense – Cádiz
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Cadiz CF's surprisingly strong edge in points and expected points against CD Eldense sets up an intriguing clash, despite the limited head-to-head sample which shows a win apiece. Yet, the odds strongly favor CD Eldense, not just due to their home advantage but also their balanced, physical approach that might well disrupt Cadiz CF's possession-heavy style. The numbers suggest that Eldense's defense will need to be on its toes, given their worrying average xGA of 2.5 per match against Cadiz's xG of 1.2.
CD Eldense comes into this fixture with a 47% probability of victory, and that's reflected in their most likely winning scorelines, 1-0 (12%) and 2-0 (9%). The model leans heavily towards them, and with a 7% expected value edge at odds of 2.25 on Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, savvy bettors might see this as a worthwhile opportunity.
Cadiz CF, with a 25% chance of winning according to the model, might find the going tough. Their style will put Eldense under pressure, but they will have to be clinical to capitalize on any opportunities given Eldense’s surprisingly high expected goals tally of 1.49. That said, the head-to-head data, albeit scant, reveals Cadiz's ability to find holes in Eldense's setup, suggesting that a draw shouldn't be discounted.
With an over 2.5 goals probability at 45% and both teams to score at 49%, the numbers don't scream goals. Yet, the defensive frailties of the hosts and Cadiz's ability to press could yield a few surprises. Still, a 1-0 home win feels like the most compelling narrative the numbers tell us.
In the end, the sharpest angle lies in the value bet on a home win at those odds. Given the model's confidence in Eldense's triumph, a punt could well pay dividends for those willing to back the home side's physical resilience overcoming Cadiz's high press.
CD EldenseForm WDDLL
League ranking xG #16xGA #21xT #8xP/match #22Points #22
Key players
- Guillermo Macho MuñozCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.03
- David Ruiz MonteroLWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.00
- Fidel Chaves de la TorreRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.15
CádizForm LDWLD
League ranking xG #9xGA #5xT #11xP/match #9Points #10
Key players
- Iza CarcelenRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.16
- Jesús Joaquín Fernández Sáenz de la TorreRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.20
- Álvaro Miguel García PascualFxG 0.30 · xT 0.03
Match prediction: CD Eldense – Cádiz
Predicted score matrix
Cádiz →
CD Eldense →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.8%
0–17.9%
0–24.1%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–012.1%
1–112.7%
1–26.1%
1–32.0%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–09.3%
2–19.2%
2–24.5%
2–31.5%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–04.6%
3–14.6%
3–22.3%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–02.4%
4+–12.4%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.2-09%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.0-09%
Expected goals
1,49–0,99
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,555%
@1.68
Over 2,545%
@2.05
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- CD Eldense to win47%
- Under 2.5 goals55%
- Jesús Clemente Corcho to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Jesús Clemente Corcho to score25%
- Rominigue Kouamé N'Guessan to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · CD Eldense47% probability@2.25BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
- 1 · CD Eldense47% probability@2.25BetssonEV+7%reference odds
- 1 · CD Eldense47% probability@2.25NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · CD Eldense | X | 2 · Cádiz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 7% 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.15 |
| Betsson | EV+ 7% 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.15 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 7% 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.15 |
Odds updated 18 Aug, 06:36
Odds movement
10 %
43 %38 %
2.25 → 2.25
X0 %
33 %28 %
3.00 → 3.00
20 %
31 %26 %
3.15 → 3.15
Over 2,5+1 %
48 %43 %
2.02 → 2.05
Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesCD Eldense 1Draw 0Cádiz 1
Goals: 3–5 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
CD Eldense
Cádiz
CD Eldense (0–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
CD Eldense
Cádiz
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
CD Eldense
Cádiz
The teams in numbers
| Performance | CD Eldense | Cádiz |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 1 |
| xPoints | 0.3 | 1.7 |
| xG per match | 0.54 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 2.5 | 0.45 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.02 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| Playing style | CD Eldense | Cádiz |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| xT per match | 0.91 | 0.79 |
| xTA per match | 0.87 | 0.38 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 36 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.34 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 7 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 338 | 449 |
| Passes against per match | 478 | 334 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.2 | 24.6 |
| Long balls per match | 23 | 30 |
| Set pieces | CD Eldense | Cádiz |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 7.3 | 6.2 |
| Corners against per match | 6.4 | 2 |
| xG per corner | 0 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0 |
| Other | CD Eldense | Cádiz |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| The goalkeepers | Ramón Vila Rovira (CD Eldense) | Jokin Ezkieta (Cádiz) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 2 | 5 |
| Save % | 40% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 24% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins CD Eldense vs Cádiz according to our model?
The model gives CD Eldense a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: CD Eldense 47%, draw 28%, Cádiz 25%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.