01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Córdoba or draw (1X)64%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Segunda División27°17 km/h
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CórdobaCounter-attacks & crossesvs
GironaPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Córdoba (44%)
Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.
Córdoba – Girona · Segunda División
1 · Córdoba 44%X 24%32% Girona · 2
44%
24%
32%
Analysis: Córdoba – Girona
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Cordoba CF stands as a curious enigma in the Segunda División. With the model giving them a 44% chance of victory, they are priced at odds of 3.1 on Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, offering a tantalizing 35% edge for those willing to back the home side. The model leans toward Cordoba CF, but only just, with a slight preference for their chances against Girona FC.
Certainly, Girona FC has the statistical edge in many key areas, boasting superior xG per match (2.3) and a remarkably stingy xGA of just 0.31. This defensive solidity might make one think it's a foregone conclusion, but Cordoba CF's counter-attacking style could exploit any lapses in Girona's high press. Expected goals hover close for both teams — 1.47 for Cordoba and 1.42 for Girona — making this a finely balanced affair.
Girona FC has a slight advantage in points and expected points, yet Cordoba CF's penchant for crosses and quick breaks could throw a spanner in their works. The most likely scoreline, according to the numbers, is a 1-1 draw (12%), but the 2-1 tilt towards Cordoba (9%) is not far behind. This suggests a close contest, with each side capable of finding the net.
With the over 2.5 goals prediction at 55% and both teams to score at 59%, the match promises a fair share of goalmouth action. However, given the tactical nuances — Cordoba's counter versus Girona's press — a 2-1 victory for Cordoba seems plausible.
With the home side priced at 3.1 across multiple bookmakers, the value lies with Cordoba CF. This edge, coupled with Girona's attacking prowess and defensive numbers, sets the stage for a captivating matchup, yet one where the bold punter might see Cordoba CF pulling off a slender victory.
CórdobaForm WLLDL
League ranking xG #5xGA #16xT #3xP/match #12Points #17
Key players
- Cristian Carracedo GarcíaRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.62
- Yussi DiarraRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.10
- Dani TasendeLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.39
GironaForm D
League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #1xP/match #4Points #15
Match prediction: Córdoba – Girona
Predicted score matrix
Girona →
Córdoba →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.9%
0–17.5%
0–25.6%
0–32.7%
0–4+1.3%
1
1–07.8%
1–111.9%
1–28.2%
1–33.9%
1–4+1.9%
2
2–06.0%
2–18.5%
2–26.1%
2–32.9%
2–4+1.4%
3
3–02.9%
3–14.2%
3–23.0%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–01.5%
4+–12.1%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.0-18%
Expected goals
1,47–1,42
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
224%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,545%
@1.80
Over 2,555%
@1.90EV+5%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Córdoba or draw (1X)64%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Cristian Carracedo García to score13%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Min-Su Kim to score21%
- Francisco José Beltrán Peinado to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Córdoba44% probability@3.00BetsafeEV+31%reference odds
- 1 · Córdoba44% probability@3.00BetssonEV+31%reference odds
- 1 · Córdoba44% probability@3.00NordicbetEV+31%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Córdoba | X | 2 · Girona |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 31% 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
| Betsson | EV+ 31% 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 31% 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
Odds updated 18 Aug, 16:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 18 August — the odds have shortened from 2.05 to 1.90 (−7%).
1-3 %
33 %28 %
3.10 → 3.00
X+3 %
31 %26 %
3.20 → 3.30
20 %
44 %39 %
2.20 → 2.20
Over 2,5-7 %
49 %44 %
2.05 → 1.90
Betsson · 4 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Córdoba
Girona
Córdoba (2–3)
Girona (1–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Córdoba
Girona
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Córdoba
Girona
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Córdoba | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 1 |
| xPoints | 1.1 | 2.2 |
| xG per match | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 0.31 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.35 | 0 |
| Playing style | Córdoba | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.61 | 0.91 |
| xT per match | 1.5 | 2.6 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.36 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 37 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 23 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 2 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.84 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.61 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 331 | 610 |
| Passes against per match | 221 | 249 |
| Switches of play per match | 39.1 | 52.7 |
| Long balls per match | 39 | 51 |
| Set pieces | Córdoba | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.38 |
| Corners per match | 6.7 | 9.1 |
| Corners against per match | 0.95 | 0 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0 | 0 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.14 | 0.44 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0 | 0 |
| Other | Córdoba | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.86 | 0.9 |
| The goalkeepers | Iker Álvarez de Eulate Molné (Córdoba) | Paulo Gazzaniga (Girona) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 2 | 2 |
| Save % | 40% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 23% | 90% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Córdoba vs Girona according to our model?
The model gives Córdoba a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Córdoba 44%, draw 24%, Girona 32%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.