Swedish Ettan20°17 km/h

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    AFC EskilstunaAFC Eskilstuna
    vs
    HammarbyHammarbyPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Hammarby (69%)

    AFC Eskilstuna – Hammarby · Swedish Ettan

    1 · AFC Eskilstuna 14%X 17%69% Hammarby · 2

    Analysis: AFC Eskilstuna – Hammarby

    Oscar Nilsson · · How the predictions work

    Sixty-nine percent is not a number you see often in football, yet that's the probability the model assigns to Hammarby TFF taking all three points against AFC Eskilstuna. With the away side boasting an impressive streak of three consecutive wins and having found the net in their last 16 league outings, confidence in Hammarby TFF is well-placed. AFC Eskilstuna, on the other hand, face a Herculean task with just a 14% chance of victory. Their expected goals of 1.03 pale in comparison to Hammarby TFF's commanding 2.45.

    A 1-2 scoreline emerges as the most likely outcome at 10%, reflecting Hammarby TFF's superior form. With a model-lead over 2.5 goals hitting a robust 68%, the numbers suggest a goal-laden encounter, albeit tilted in favor of the visitors. The expected goals also hint that AFC Eskilstuna might sneak one in, aligning with the 59% probability of both teams finding the net. But make no mistake, it's Hammarby TFF's offensive machine that looks set to dominate proceedings.

    Hammarby TFF have proven relentless, scoring in 16 consecutive league matches—a stat that can't be dismissed lightly. Such form not only adds pressure to Eskilstuna's defence but also underscores Hammarby's ability to consistently find the back of the net. The small head-to-head sample is less relevant here, as season form and expected goals paint a more accurate picture of what to expect on the pitch.

    For punters, the real gem lies in the value odds. Hammarby TFF's away win is pegged at 1.68 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Given the model's 69% probability, this represents a 16% edge—a rare find in betting circles. With this kind of value and the numbers heavily leaning towards Hammarby TFF, backing the visitors seems the shrewd move, especially in a match already primed for goals and away dominance.

    AFC EskilstunaAFC Eskilstuna
    HammarbyHammarby
    Form WDWWW
    League ranking xG #5xGA #4xT #7xP/match #5Points #3
    Key players
    • Elton HedströmLWxG 0.65 · xT 0.08
    • Oscar Steinke BrånbyLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.28
    • Keyano MarrahFxG 0.38 · xT 0.12

    Match prediction: AFC Eskilstuna – Hammarby

    Predicted score matrix

    Hammarby →
    AFC Eskilstuna →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.3%
    0–17.3%
    0–29.2%
    0–37.5%
    0–4+8.2%
    1
    1–03.0%
    1–18.0%
    1–29.5%
    1–37.8%
    1–4+8.5%
    2
    2–01.6%
    2–14.0%
    2–24.9%
    2–34.0%
    2–4+4.4%
    3
    3–00.6%
    3–11.4%
    3–21.7%
    3–31.4%
    3–4+1.5%
    4+
    4+–00.2%
    4+–10.4%
    4+–20.5%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.5%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-210%
    2. 2.0-29%
    3. 3.1-18%
    4. 4.1-38%
    5. 5.0-38%
    Expected goals
    1,03–2,45
    Both teams to score
    59%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,5
    Under 2,532%
    @2.75
    Over 2,568%
    @1.39

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Hammarby to win69%
    • Over 1.5 goals86%

    Combined probability

    61%

    Fair odds

    1.65

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Hammarby to win69%
    • Over 2.5 goals68%
    • Suwaibou Kebbeh to score39%

    Combined probability

    20%

    Fair odds

    5.01

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score59%
    • Over 2.5 goals68%
    • Suwaibou Kebbeh to score39%
    • Ryan Williams to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    4%

    Fair odds

    23.26

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Hammarby69% probability@1.72BetsafeEV+19%
    • 2 · Hammarby69% probability@1.72BetssonEV+19%
    • 2 · Hammarby69% probability@1.72NordicbetEV+19%
    Bookmaker1 · AFC EskilstunaX2 · Hammarby
    Betsafe3.803.95
    EV+ 19%
    1.72
    Betsson3.803.95
    EV+ 19%
    1.72
    Nordicbet3.803.95
    EV+ 19%
    1.72

    Odds updated 13 Aug, 13:35

    Odds movement

    1-6 %
    26 %21 %

    4.05 → 3.80

    X+3 %
    27 %22 %

    3.85 → 3.95

    2+2 %
    56 %51 %

    1.68 → 1.72

    Betsson · 7 recorded price levels · 10/08/2026 → 13/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Hammarby TFF Herrfotboll come into this round on 3 straight wins.
    • Hammarby TFF Herrfotboll have scored in 16 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Hammarby
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Hammarby (60–31)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Hammarby
    Jordan Simpson: 277 passningar, xT 0.78SimpsonBenjamin Laturnus: 260 passningar, xT 0.42LaturnusOscar Steinke Brånby: 216 passningar, xT 2.1BrånbyWilliam Axelsson Tervonen: 190 passningar, xT 1TervonenEssayas Lwampindy-Bofua: 134 passningar, xT 0.23Lwampindy-BofuaBjörn Hedlöf: 131 passningar, xT 0.22HedlöfKeyano Marrah: 130 passningar, xT 0.64MarrahOliver Reuterswärd Corlin: 118 passningar, xT 0.13CorlinAmar Dzevlan: 112 passningar, xT 0.52DzevlanYusei Shima: 106 passningar, xT 0.8ShimaOdera Samuel Onuchukwu Adindu: 90 passningar, xT -0.09Adindu
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Hammarby
    Jordan Simpson: 277 passningar, xT 0.78SimpsonBenjamin Laturnus: 260 passningar, xT 0.42LaturnusOscar Steinke Brånby: 216 passningar, xT 2.1BrånbyWilliam Axelsson Tervonen: 190 passningar, xT 1TervonenEssayas Lwampindy-Bofua: 134 passningar, xT 0.23Lwampindy-BofuaBjörn Hedlöf: 131 passningar, xT 0.22HedlöfKeyano Marrah: 130 passningar, xT 0.64MarrahOliver Reuterswärd Corlin: 118 passningar, xT 0.13CorlinAmar Dzevlan: 112 passningar, xT 0.52DzevlanYusei Shima: 106 passningar, xT 0.8ShimaOdera Samuel Onuchukwu Adindu: 90 passningar, xT -0.09Adindu
    The goalkeepersAFC EskilstunaAmar Dzevlan (Hammarby)
    Saves–64
    Save %–69%
    xG prevented–40%
    Claims–117 (89%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins AFC Eskilstuna vs Hammarby according to our model?

    The model gives Hammarby a 69% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: AFC Eskilstuna 14%, draw 17%, Hammarby 69%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.