Ängelholm vs FC Trollhättan: Prediction & Odds (15 Aug 2026)

Swedish Ettan15 August 2026 13:00 CEST23°18 km/h

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ÄngelholmLow block & direct

FC TrollhättanPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Ängelholm (38%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · FC Trollhättan @ 3.25 (+12 %)

1 · Ängelholm 38%X 27%34% FC Trollhättan · 2

38%

27%

34%

Analysis: Ängelholm – FC Trollhättan

Oscar Nilsson · 11 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Ängelholms FF and FC Trollhättan stand on the brink of a clash that could tip the balance in the Ettan. With just a single point separating them in the standings—Ängelholms FF holding the slenderest of leads—this fixture becomes all the more intriguing. Yet, it's the historical record that catches the eye: FC Trollhättan have shown dominance with three wins to Ängelholms FF's solitary victory in their last seven encounters. Despite the small sample size, this pattern can't be completely ignored, though form and expected goals suggest a closer contest this time.

Ängelholms FF steps into this match with a statistical edge in expected points (xPoints 22.9 vs 17.7), thanks largely to a more robust defense. Their expected goals against (xGA) of 1.1 contrasts favourably with FC Trollhättan's 1.4, underscoring a defensive resilience that might just make the difference. However, FC Trollhättan's ability to control possession and their slightly higher xG per match (1.2 against Ängelholms FF’s 1.1) suggest they won't be easily outmaneuvered.

When it comes to anticipated outcomes, the model favours a tight contest, with a slight lean towards Ängelholms FF (38% probability), but the margins are razor-thin, with FC Trollhättan not far behind at 34%. With the most likely scoreline being a 1-1 draw, and a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals, expect an open game. The playing styles further hint at a potentially goal-laden affair, as Ängelholms FF's direct approach might clash thrillingly with FC Trollhättan's control.

But here's where the betting angles add the sharpest edge. The model identifies value in backing FC Trollhättan away at odds of 3.2 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet. This represents a 10% edge over the model's 34% win probability for the visitors. If you're seeking value, this is where the numbers suggest your focus should be.

Ängelholm

Form WLDDL

League ranking xG #26xGA #9xT #14xP/match #14Points #21

Key players

Vilgot CarlssonFxG 0.33 · xT 0.10
Oliver Stojanovic FredinFxG 0.13 · xT 0.56
Anton NilssonRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.14

FC Trollhättan

Form DLDWL

League ranking xG #25xGA #18xT #13xP/match #28Points #27

Key players

Hugo TillyFxG 0.47 · xT 0.02
Melwin BergRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.24
William JensenCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.35

Match prediction: Ängelholm – FC Trollhättan

Predicted score matrix

FC Trollhättan →

Ängelholm →

0–04.4%

0–15.8%

0–24.5%

0–32.2%

0–4+1.2%

1–06.7%

1–110.7%

1–27.7%

1–33.8%

1–4+2.0%

2–06.0%

2–18.9%

2–26.6%

2–33.3%

2–4+1.7%

3–03.4%

3–15.1%

3–23.8%

3–31.9%

3–4+1.0%

4+–02.1%

4+–13.2%

4+–22.4%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-07%
5.2-27%

Expected goals

1,71–1,49

Both teams to score

64%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,538%

@2.42

Over 2,562%

@1.49

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Ängelholm or draw (1X)67%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Ängelholm or draw (1X)67%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Adam Touray to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score64%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Adam Touray to score32%
Oliver Ocampo Hägglund to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · FC Trollhättan34% probability@3.25BetsafeEV+12%
2 · FC Trollhättan34% probability@3.25BetssonEV+12%
2 · FC Trollhättan34% probability@3.25NordicbetEV+12%

Bookmaker	1 · Ängelholm	X	2 · FC Trollhättan
Betsafe	1.92	EV+ 3% 3.75	EV+ 12% 3.25
Betsson	1.92	EV+ 3% 3.75	EV+ 12% 3.25
Nordicbet	1.92	EV+ 3% 3.75	EV+ 12% 3.25

Odds updated 13 Aug, 07:36

Odds movement

1-2 %

50 %45 %

1.95 → 1.92

X0 %

27 %22 %

3.75 → 3.75

2+2 %

31 %26 %

3.20 → 3.25

Betsson · 3 recorded price levels · 10/08/2026 → 13/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Ängelholm 1Draw 3FC Trollhättan 3

Goals: 6–15 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

Key facts

FC Trollhättan dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 7 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Ängelholm

FC Trollhättan

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Ängelholm (24–25)

FC Trollhättan (19–27)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Ängelholm

FC Trollhättan

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Ängelholm

FC Trollhättan

The teams in numbers

Performance	Ängelholm	FC Trollhättan
Points	17	16
xPoints	22.9	17.7
xG per match	1.1	1.2
xGA per match	1.1	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.24

Playing style	Ängelholm	FC Trollhättan
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.36
Field tilt	0.5	0.56
xT per match	1.4	1.4
xTA per match	1.4	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	29	30
Pressing intensity	0.48	0.57
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.33
Entries into the box per match	11	14
Entries into the box against	13	13
Pass completion %	0.76	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.77
Passes per match	322	491
Passes against per match	383	308
Switches of play per match	18.2	13.6
Long balls per match	31	24

Set pieces	Ängelholm	FC Trollhättan
xG from free kicks	0.15	0.13
Corners per match	4.1	4.6
Corners against per match	4.1	4.3
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.23	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.59

Other	Ängelholm	FC Trollhättan
Throw-in control	0.53	0.59

The goalkeepers	Robin Streifert (Ängelholm)	Jimmy Henriksson (FC Trollhättan)
Saves	42	30
Save %	63%	77%
xG prevented	27%	52%
Claims	118 (98%)	57 (91%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ängelholm vs FC Trollhättan according to our model?

The model gives Ängelholm a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ängelholm 38%, draw 27%, FC Trollhättan 34%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.