Swedish Ettan

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    ArlandaArlandaCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    FBK KarlstadFBK KarlstadCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Arlanda (37%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · FBK Karlstad @ 3.15 (+17 %)

    Arlanda – FBK Karlstad · Swedish Ettan

    1 · Arlanda 37%X 25%37% FBK Karlstad · 2

    Analysis: Arlanda – FBK Karlstad

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    51%—that's the probability model's lean towards FBK Karlstad claiming victory over FC Arlanda. This numerical edge is substantial, supported by a balanced physicality in Karlstad's playstyle, which often grinds down opposition tactics. FBK Karlstad's strength is further underscored by their tighter defense, conceding a mere 0.61 expected goals against per match, well below what FC Arlanda allows at 1.3. This doesn't bode well for Arlanda, who rely on counterattacks and crossing—approaches likely to be stifled by Karlstad’s defensive resilience.

    FC Arlanda, despite their spirited play, trail behind both in points and expected points. They have managed to bag a total of 30 points, but their expected points sit at 23.6, suggesting they may have overperformed relative to their performances. In contrast, FBK Karlstad's expected points (27.1) are more closely aligned with their actual tally of 36, hinting at a team that delivers on its potential. These discrepancies hint at FC Arlanda's vulnerability, especially when the match intensifies.

    It’s worth noting that these teams have met three times since 2023, a small sample size which slightly tempers its predictive value. Yet, within this limited head-to-head, FC Arlanda has only managed to seize victory once, with FBK Karlstad claiming the other two encounters. While past encounters paint a picture, it's the current form, tactical setup, and statistical edge that truly frame the narrative.

    The model suggests a 12% probability for a 1-1 draw, but given the xG numbers, a 1-2 scoreline in favor of FBK Karlstad feels more plausible. The over 2.5 goals market, leaning at 54%, aligns with this potential outcome, making it a reasonable consideration, especially since both teams have a 56% likelihood to find the net.

    With the numbers in mind, the sharpest angle here is backing FBK Karlstad at odds of 1.95 with Bet365. This price captures the model's 51% probability edge and reflects value for those looking to capitalize on the statistical lean towards the visitors.

    ArlandaArlanda
    Form WWLDL
    League ranking xG #23xGA #15xT #22xP/match #13Points #7
    Key players
    • Anton CharbachiLWxG 0.41 · xT 0.16
    • Mario ButrosCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.29
    • Samuel Dawid RydzFxG 0.25 · xT 0.05
    FBK KarlstadFBK Karlstad
    Form WLLDW
    League ranking xG #12xGA #9xT #10xP/match #1Points #10
    Key players
    • Granit HanaFxG 0.48 · xT 0.11
    • Linus FredrikssonRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.22
    • Anton PärleholtRWBxG 0.21 · xT 0.32

    Match prediction: Arlanda – FBK Karlstad

    Predicted score matrix

    FBK Karlstad →
    Arlanda →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.0%
    0–16.7%
    0–25.2%
    0–32.6%
    0–4+1.4%
    1
    1–07.0%
    1–111.3%
    1–28.2%
    1–34.1%
    1–4+2.1%
    2
    2–05.8%
    2–18.6%
    2–26.4%
    2–33.2%
    2–4+1.7%
    3
    3–03.0%
    3–14.5%
    3–23.4%
    3–31.7%
    3–4+0.9%
    4+
    4+–01.7%
    4+–12.5%
    4+–21.9%
    4+–30.9%
    4+–4+0.5%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-28%
    4. 4.1-07%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,57–1,49
    Both teams to score
    62%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,541%
    @2.08
    Over 2,559%
    @1.68

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Arlanda or draw (1X)64%
    • Over 1.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    52%

    Fair odds

    1.92

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Arlanda or draw (1X)64%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Ludvig Lars Johan Nyman to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score62%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Ludvig Lars Johan Nyman to score24%
    • Alexander Hagelberg to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · FBK Karlstad37% probability@3.15BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
    • 2 · FBK Karlstad37% probability@3.15BetssonEV+17%reference odds
    • 2 · FBK Karlstad37% probability@3.15NordicbetEV+17%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · ArlandaX2 · FBK Karlstad
    Betsafe2.003.50
    EV+ 17%
    3.15
    Betsson2.003.50
    EV+ 17%
    3.15
    Nordicbet2.003.50
    EV+ 17%
    3.15

    Odds updated 18 Aug, 19:36

    Odds movement

    1+6 %
    49 %44 %

    1.88 → 2.00

    X-3 %
    28 %23 %

    3.60 → 3.50

    2-9 %
    30 %25 %

    3.45 → 3.15

    Betsson · 3 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    1 matches
    Arlanda 0Draw 1FBK Karlstad 0
    Goals: 0–0

    Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Arlanda
    FBK Karlstad
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Arlanda (25–19)
    FBK Karlstad (26–23)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Arlanda
    Isac Giordano Eriksson: 161 passningar, xT 0.16ErikssonCarl Norberg: 145 passningar, xT 1.21NorbergErik Johansson Olsson: 139 passningar, xT 0.14OlssonYoas Yemane: 99 passningar, xT 0.12YemaneLeonard Kleist: 91 passningar, xT 0.31KleistJoel Carlsson: 87 passningar, xT 0.04CarlssonMark Gorgos: 81 passningar, xT 0.08GorgosAdam Smedberg Lagh: 68 passningar, xT 0.56LaghViggo Elfström: 65 passningar, xT 0.04ElfströmMario Butros: 59 passningar, xT 1.46ButrosIsac Antholm: 49 passningar, xT 0.01Antholm
    FBK Karlstad
    Eric Forsberg: 193 passningar, xT 0.52ForsbergAlexander Hagelberg: 169 passningar, xT 0.23HagelbergMarius Hoiby: 140 passningar, xT 0.44HoibySimon Wagnsson: 117 passningar, xT 0.2WagnssonLinus Fredriksson: 101 passningar, xT 0.57FredrikssonAnton Pärleholt: 86 passningar, xT 0.71PärleholtLudvig Steen: 56 passningar, xT 0.43SteenGranit Hana: 56 passningar, xT -0.01HanaMohammed Qassim Mohammed: 52 passningar, xT 0.23MohammedNoel Björk: 44 passningar, xT 0.21BjörkMichael Aduragbemi Oluwayemi: 43 passningar, xT 0.4Oluwayemi
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Arlanda
    Isac Giordano Eriksson: 161 passningar, xT 0.16ErikssonCarl Norberg: 145 passningar, xT 1.21NorbergErik Johansson Olsson: 139 passningar, xT 0.14OlssonYoas Yemane: 99 passningar, xT 0.12YemaneLeonard Kleist: 91 passningar, xT 0.31KleistJoel Carlsson: 87 passningar, xT 0.04CarlssonMark Gorgos: 81 passningar, xT 0.08GorgosAdam Smedberg Lagh: 68 passningar, xT 0.56LaghViggo Elfström: 65 passningar, xT 0.04ElfströmMario Butros: 59 passningar, xT 1.46ButrosIsac Antholm: 49 passningar, xT 0.01Antholm
    FBK Karlstad
    Eric Forsberg: 193 passningar, xT 0.52ForsbergAlexander Hagelberg: 169 passningar, xT 0.23HagelbergMarius Hoiby: 140 passningar, xT 0.44HoibySimon Wagnsson: 117 passningar, xT 0.2WagnssonLinus Fredriksson: 101 passningar, xT 0.57FredrikssonAnton Pärleholt: 86 passningar, xT 0.71PärleholtLudvig Steen: 56 passningar, xT 0.43SteenGranit Hana: 56 passningar, xT -0.01HanaMohammed Qassim Mohammed: 52 passningar, xT 0.23MohammedNoel Björk: 44 passningar, xT 0.21BjörkMichael Aduragbemi Oluwayemi: 43 passningar, xT 0.4Oluwayemi

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceArlandaFBK Karlstad
    Points3028
    xPoints24.228.8
    xG per match1.21.5
    xGA per match1.31.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.210.32
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.270.24
    Playing styleArlandaFBK Karlstad
    Build-up efficiency0.340.33
    Field tilt0.380.4
    xT per match1.31.5
    xTA per match1.41.4
    Won balls, offensive half3535
    Pressing intensity0.490.5
    Pressing efficiency0.280.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.320.28
    Entries into the box per match1115
    Entries into the box against1412
    Pass completion %0.720.7
    Pass completion % under pressure0.650.63
    Passes per match249259
    Passes against per match347440
    Switches of play per match1819.1
    Long balls per match3232
    Set piecesArlandaFBK Karlstad
    xG from free kicks0.130.13
    Corners per match3.45.5
    Corners against per match4.54.3
    xG per corner0.030.03
    xGA per corner against0.030.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.40.43
    First touch, defensive corners %0.580.63
    OtherArlandaFBK Karlstad
    Throw-in control0.40.48
    The goalkeepersAdam Smedberg Lagh (Arlanda)Vincent Johansson (FBK Karlstad)
    Saves5746
    Save %76%71%
    xG prevented64%59%
    Claims76 (95%)58 (88%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Arlanda vs FBK Karlstad according to our model?

    The model gives Arlanda a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Arlanda 37%, draw 25%, FBK Karlstad 37%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    IFK StocksundIFK Stocksund
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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.