Swedish EttanUpdated

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    JärfällaJärfällaCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    The model's lean: 2 · Karlstad Fotboll (59%)
    Karlstad FotbollKarlstad FotbollBalanced & physical

    Järfälla – Karlstad Fotboll · Swedish Ettan

    1 · Järfälla 18%X 23%59% Karlstad Fotboll · 2
    JärfällaJärfälla
    Form LLDWL
    League ranking xG #16xGA #27xT #29xP/match #22Points #25
    Key players
    • Adam WürtzFxG 0.24 · xT 0.25
    • Abdulmannan KhalilFxG 0.52 · xT -0.02
    • Anthony PortillaCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.1
    Karlstad FotbollKarlstad Fotboll
    Form DWWDL
    League ranking xG #23xGA #1xT #28xP/match #7Points #4
    Key players
    • Jesper CarströmFxG 0.14 · xT 0.15
    • Lukas RhöseLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.18
    • William MiguelRWxG 0.47 · xT 0.14

    Match prediction: Järfälla – Karlstad Fotboll

    Predicted score matrix

    Karlstad Fotboll →
    Järfälla →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.4%
    0–110.9%
    0–210.2%
    0–36.2%
    0–4+4.3%
    1
    1–05.6%
    1–111.1%
    1–29.9%
    1–36.0%
    1–4+4.1%
    2
    2–02.9%
    2–15.2%
    2–24.8%
    2–32.9%
    2–4+2.0%
    3
    3–00.9%
    3–11.7%
    3–21.5%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–00.3%
    4+–10.5%
    4+–20.5%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.0-111%
    3. 3.0-210%
    4. 4.1-210%
    5. 5.0-06%
    Expected goals
    0,97–1,82
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,547%
    –
    Over 2,553%
    –

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Analysis: Järfälla – Karlstad Fotboll

    Oscar Nilsson · · How the predictions work

    Thirty points. That's the definitive gap in the standings between FC Järfälla and IF Karlstad Fotboll this season, with IF Karlstad Fotboll doubling their opponent's tally. The numbers suggest a distinct edge for the visitors, underpinned by a model probability that gives them a commanding 59% chance of taking home the spoils. What this matchup boils down to is whether FC Järfälla can spring a surprise against the odds, but with the model and recent form in tow, it's hard to look beyond an away win.

    FC Järfälla, with a modest 18% chance of victory, have struggled against the more physically robust and balanced approach of IF Karlstad Fotboll. The expected goals favour the visitors, too, with a 1.82 to 0.97 margin, hinting at a match that could sway decisively in Karlstad's favour. It's not that Järfälla can't find the net; they do generate a respectable xG per match of 1.4, but they leak goals at an alarming rate with 1.7 xGA, and therein lies the rub.

    IF Karlstad Fotboll, on the other hand, enter this contest with the confidence of their previous encounter, a win that adds an extra psychological edge. Their defensive solidity is underscored by a miserly 0.63 xGA per match, suggesting that their backline is likely to stand firm against a Järfälla side predominantly reliant on counter attacks and crosses.

    With a most likely scoreline of either 1-1 or 0-1 at 11%, and a 10% chance of a 0-2 outcome, the model leans towards a low-scoring affair. Yet, with a slight nod towards over 2.5 goals at 53%, there's a potential for fireworks if the game opens up. Still, the sharp money seems to lean towards a disciplined 0-2 away triumph, with IF Karlstad Fotboll's sturdy defence and effective physical style proving too much for their adversaries.

    The market offers value with IF Karlstad Fotboll to win at 1.80 with Bet365. It's not a guarantee, of course, but with the statistics and form lines converging, backing the visitors at these odds seems the wisest play.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    1 matches
    Järfälla 0Draw 0Karlstad Fotboll 1
    Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Järfälla
    Karlstad Fotboll
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Järfälla (21–31)
    Karlstad Fotboll (22–9)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Järfälla
    Adrian Hamidi: 262 passningar, xT 0.25HamidiOscar Möller: 197 passningar, xT 0.29MöllerNathnael Medhin T: 175 passningar, xT 0.18TKenan Nisic: 174 passningar, xT 0.3NisicNaramsin Akdemir: 133 passningar, xT 0.54AkdemirOssian Ogestad: 108 passningar, xT 0.06OgestadAdam Würtz: 107 passningar, xT 1WürtzAdhavan Rajamohan: 90 passningar, xT 0.56RajamohanAbdulmannan Khalil: 86 passningar, xT -0.08KhalilErik von Feilitzen: 76 passningar, xT 0.14FeilitzenEmil Drugge Stals: 64 passningar, xT 0.22Stals
    Karlstad Fotboll
    Elliot Nilsson King: 301 passningar, xT 0.26KingStevan Beko: 296 passningar, xT 0.48BekoIsaac Yawe Höök: 291 passningar, xT 0.52HöökSuleman Zurmati: 280 passningar, xT 0.38ZurmatiBanabas Tagoe: 169 passningar, xT 0.94TagoeKonrad Gustafsson: 145 passningar, xT 0.37GustafssonHenrik Bellman: 142 passningar, xT 1.72BellmanMathias Karlsson: 117 passningar, xT 0.12KarlssonNuha Jatta: 103 passningar, xT 0.13JattaNfansu Dibba: 84 passningar, xT 0.32DibbaLukas Rhöse: 75 passningar, xT -0.1Rhöse
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Järfälla
    Adrian Hamidi: 262 passningar, xT 0.25HamidiOscar Möller: 197 passningar, xT 0.29MöllerNathnael Medhin T: 175 passningar, xT 0.18TKenan Nisic: 174 passningar, xT 0.3NisicNaramsin Akdemir: 133 passningar, xT 0.54AkdemirOssian Ogestad: 108 passningar, xT 0.06OgestadAdam Würtz: 107 passningar, xT 1WürtzAdhavan Rajamohan: 90 passningar, xT 0.56RajamohanAbdulmannan Khalil: 86 passningar, xT -0.08KhalilErik von Feilitzen: 76 passningar, xT 0.14FeilitzenEmil Drugge Stals: 64 passningar, xT 0.22Stals
    Karlstad Fotboll
    Elliot Nilsson King: 301 passningar, xT 0.26KingStevan Beko: 296 passningar, xT 0.48BekoIsaac Yawe Höök: 291 passningar, xT 0.52HöökSuleman Zurmati: 280 passningar, xT 0.38ZurmatiBanabas Tagoe: 169 passningar, xT 0.94TagoeKonrad Gustafsson: 145 passningar, xT 0.37GustafssonHenrik Bellman: 142 passningar, xT 1.72BellmanMathias Karlsson: 117 passningar, xT 0.12KarlssonNuha Jatta: 103 passningar, xT 0.13JattaNfansu Dibba: 84 passningar, xT 0.32DibbaLukas Rhöse: 75 passningar, xT -0.1Rhöse

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceJärfällaKarlstad Fotboll
    Points1530
    xPoints19.322.7
    xG per match1.41.3
    xGA per match1.70.63
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.320.25
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.350.14
    Playing styleJärfällaKarlstad Fotboll
    Build-up efficiency0.320.35
    Field tilt0.360.6
    xT per match1.21.2
    xTA per match1.60.96
    Won balls, offensive half2133
    Pressing intensity0.440.57
    Pressing efficiency0.220.3
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.210.33
    Entries into the box per match1010
    Entries into the box against177
    Pass completion %0.820.79
    Pass completion % under pressure0.780.73
    Passes per match377375
    Passes against per match387286
    Switches of play per match16.417
    Long balls per match3132
    Set piecesJärfällaKarlstad Fotboll
    xG from free kicks0.220.11
    Corners per match3.85.1
    Corners against per match53.3
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.030.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.310.35
    First touch, defensive corners %0.50.68
    OtherJärfällaKarlstad Fotboll
    Throw-in control0.560.55
    The goalkeepersErik von Feilitzen (Järfälla)Mathias Karlsson (Karlstad Fotboll)
    Saves3622
    Save %66%71%
    xG prevented49%53%
    Claims37 (86%)60 (86%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Järfälla vs Karlstad Fotboll according to our model?

    The model gives Karlstad Fotboll a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Järfälla 18%, draw 23%, Karlstad Fotboll 59%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.