Swedish Ettan19°16 km/hUpdated

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    HammarbyHammarbyPossession & high press
    vs
    The model's lean: 1 · Hammarby (82%)
    ArlandaArlandaCounter-attacks & crosses

    Hammarby – Arlanda · Swedish Ettan

    1 · Hammarby 82%X 12%6% Arlanda · 2
    HammarbyHammarby
    Form WDWWW
    League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #1xP/match #4Points #1
    Key players
    • Oskar MoczarnyLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.31
    • Adam JohanssonFxG 0.28 · xT 0.28
    • William GibsonFxG 0.33 · xT 0
    ArlandaArlanda
    Form LWWWW
    League ranking xG #17xGA #14xT #19xP/match #13Points #5
    Key players
    • Anton CharbachiLWxG 0.41 · xT 0.16
    • Samuel Dawid RydzFxG 0.3 · xT 0.04
    • Mario ButrosCAMxG 0.1 · xT 0.23

    Match prediction: Hammarby – Arlanda

    Predicted score matrix

    Arlanda →
    Hammarby →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–02.4%
    0–11.6%
    0–20.7%
    0–30.2%
    0–4+0.0%
    1
    1–06.7%
    1–15.5%
    1–22.1%
    1–30.6%
    1–4+0.1%
    2
    2–010.3%
    2–18.0%
    2–23.2%
    2–30.8%
    2–4+0.2%
    3
    3–010.2%
    3–18.0%
    3–23.1%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–016.0%
    4+–112.6%
    4+–24.9%
    4+–31.3%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-010%
    2. 2.3-010%
    3. 3.2-18%
    4. 4.3-18%
    5. 5.4-08%
    Expected goals
    2,99–0,78
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,8
    Under 2,527%
    –
    Over 2,573%
    –

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Analysis: Hammarby – Arlanda

    Sofia Andersson · · How the predictions work

    Eighty-two percent — that's the model's bullish stance on Hammarby TFF prevailing over FC Arlanda. The numbers are as clear as a Nordic winter sky, and they lean heavily towards a Hammarby TFF victory. Riding a wave of three consecutive wins, Hammarby TFF seems poised to dominate. Their offensive prowess has been relentless, with goals in 16 straight league matches. This is a team whose high press and possession style could smother an Arlanda side built to counter-attack and rely on crosses.

    FC Arlanda, however, aren't arriving empty-handed. They've strung together four straight wins, a testament to their resilience and tactical nous. Yet, when examined under the statistical microscope, the edges remain with Hammarby TFF. From xPoints to xG per match, the numbers tilt in favor of Hammarby. Even defensively, Hammarby TFF boasts significantly lower xGA, indicating a sturdier backline than Arlanda's.

    Hammarby TFF holds a slight edge in their recent head-to-head since 2023, splitting results with a win apiece. The balance of xG, though, suggests this encounter may not be as close as their previous meetings. With expected goals at 2.99 for Hammarby and a mere 0.78 for Arlanda, the likelihood of a clean sheet for the home side is substantial. The model's most probable scorelines of 2-0 and 3-0 paint a picture of dominance, neatly aligned with these projections.

    The over 2.5 goals market is screaming value at 73%, signaling an open game with plenty of action. But for those eyeing the sharpest angle, Bet365 has priced the Hammarby TFF win at competitive odds of 1.45. Given their offensive momentum and statistical superiority, it's the kind of bet that savvy punters might circle with confidence.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Hammarby 1Draw 0Arlanda 1
    Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Hammarby TFF Herrfotboll come into this round on 3 straight wins.
    • Hammarby TFF Herrfotboll have scored in 16 consecutive league matches.
    • FC Arlanda come into this round on 4 straight wins.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Hammarby
    Arlanda
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Arlanda (23–10)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Arlanda
    Isac Giordano Eriksson: 180 passningar, xT 0.47ErikssonErik Johansson Olsson: 155 passningar, xT 0.1OlssonYoas Yemane: 149 passningar, xT 0.42YemaneLeonard Kleist: 113 passningar, xT 0.19KleistViggo Elfström: 98 passningar, xT -0.12ElfströmOscar Bergstedt: 93 passningar, xT 0.25BergstedtMario Butros: 90 passningar, xT 0.65ButrosCarl Norberg: 90 passningar, xT 1.79NorbergAdam Smedberg Lagh: 59 passningar, xT 0.24LaghSaifur Rehman: 54 passningar, xT 0.04RehmanAnton Charbachi: 48 passningar, xT 0.26Charbachi
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Arlanda
    Isac Giordano Eriksson: 180 passningar, xT 0.47ErikssonErik Johansson Olsson: 155 passningar, xT 0.1OlssonYoas Yemane: 149 passningar, xT 0.42YemaneLeonard Kleist: 113 passningar, xT 0.19KleistViggo Elfström: 98 passningar, xT -0.12ElfströmOscar Bergstedt: 93 passningar, xT 0.25BergstedtMario Butros: 90 passningar, xT 0.65ButrosCarl Norberg: 90 passningar, xT 1.79NorbergAdam Smedberg Lagh: 59 passningar, xT 0.24LaghSaifur Rehman: 54 passningar, xT 0.04RehmanAnton Charbachi: 48 passningar, xT 0.26Charbachi

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceHammarbyArlanda
    Points3229
    xPoints22.921
    xG per match1.81.4
    xGA per match0.811.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.310.23
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.260.24
    Playing styleHammarbyArlanda
    Build-up efficiency0.390.34
    Field tilt0.780.39
    xT per match1.71.4
    xTA per match0.671.4
    Won balls, offensive half3435
    Pressing intensity0.550.52
    Pressing efficiency0.290.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.280.25
    Entries into the box per match2311
    Entries into the box against813
    Pass completion %0.850.71
    Pass completion % under pressure0.810.66
    Passes per match462244
    Passes against per match279345
    Switches of play per match12.418
    Long balls per match2532
    Set piecesHammarbyArlanda
    xG from free kicks0.260.1
    Corners per match5.93.6
    Corners against per match3.84.4
    xG per corner0.030.04
    xGA per corner against0.030.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.390.44
    First touch, defensive corners %0.630.62
    OtherHammarbyArlanda
    Throw-in control0.680.39
    The goalkeepersHammarbyAdam Smedberg Lagh (Arlanda)
    Saves–48
    Save %–84%
    xG prevented–75%
    Claims–64 (94%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Hammarby vs Arlanda according to our model?

    The model gives Hammarby a 82% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hammarby 82%, draw 12%, Arlanda 6%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 73% and under at 27%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.