Swedish Ettan22°2,1 mm15 km/h

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    Kristianstad FCKristianstad FCCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    TvååkerTvååkerCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Kristianstad FC (36%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · Tvååker @ 2.88 (+4 %)

    Kristianstad FC – Tvååker · Swedish Ettan

    1 · Kristianstad FC 36%X 28%36% Tvååker · 2

    Analysis: Kristianstad FC – Tvååker

    Erik Lindberg · · How the predictions work

    Kristianstad FC and Tvååkers IF face each other in a matchup defined by a fine balance, where both teams are given a 36% chance of winning by the models. Despite identical win probabilities, Kristianstad FC holds a slight model lean and a narrow edge in expected points (20.1 vs. 19.0). Yet, Tvååkers IF can boast about their recent scoring prowess, netting in 12 consecutive league outings, a streak that underscores their attacking reliability.

    Tvååkers IF have a slight advantage on the points table with 22 compared to Kristianstad FC's 17, but the expected goals suggest a minor advantage for Kristianstad in defense. Tvååkers' higher xG per match of 1.1 doesn't quite match Kristianstad's marginally better defensive xGA of 1.3. The styles of play for both teams, heavily inclined towards counter-attacks and crosses, suggest a lively contest but one that may not deviate much from the expected scorelines of 1-1 or narrow 2-1 victories.

    With 54% chances of the game going over 2.5 goals and a 58% probability of both teams finding the net, goals should be on the menu, yet not in overwhelming abundance. Considering both teams' proficiency and the predicted tight margins, a 1-1 draw seems the most plausible outcome. Yet, the model's lean towards Kristianstad and the slim 4% value advantage of betting on Tvååkers at odds of 2.88 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet offers an intriguing gamble for the value-seeking punter.

    Kristianstad FC may have the statistical backing, but the value lies with Tvååkers IF. At odds of 2.88, the model's endorsement of a 36% win rate suggests there's an edge to be had for those daring enough to back the visitors.

    Kristianstad FCKristianstad FC
    Form DLDLW
    League ranking xG #30xGA #11xT #27xP/match #22Points #22
    Key players
    • Svante SvedinLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.26
    • Omar DamphaFxG 0.29 · xT 0.03
    • Paolo LiljaFxG 0.28 · xT 0.10
    TvååkerTvååker
    Form WWLDL
    League ranking xG #29xGA #27xT #15xP/match #27Points #15
    Key players
    • Mergim LaciFxG 0.36 · xT 0.11
    • Victor KarlssonLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.44
    • Ishak ShamounFxG 0.17 · xT 0.02

    Match prediction: Kristianstad FC – Tvååker

    Predicted score matrix

    Tvååker →
    Kristianstad FC →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.2%
    0–17.9%
    0–25.8%
    0–32.7%
    0–4+1.3%
    1
    1–08.0%
    1–112.1%
    1–28.3%
    1–33.9%
    1–4+1.9%
    2
    2–05.9%
    2–18.4%
    2–25.9%
    2–32.8%
    2–4+1.3%
    3
    3–02.8%
    3–14.0%
    3–22.8%
    3–31.3%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–01.4%
    4+–11.9%
    4+–21.4%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.2-18%
    3. 3.1-28%
    4. 4.1-08%
    5. 5.0-18%
    Expected goals
    1,43–1,41
    Both teams to score
    58%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,546%
    @2.05
    Over 2,554%
    @1.70

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Kristianstad FC or draw (1X)63%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    49%

    Fair odds

    2.04

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Kristianstad FC or draw (1X)63%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Paolo Lilja to score22%

    Combined probability

    7%

    Fair odds

    14.43

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score58%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Mergim Laci to score26%
    • Isak Wiman to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    2%

    Fair odds

    44.73

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Tvååker36% probability@2.88BetsafeEV+4%
    • 2 · Tvååker36% probability@2.88BetssonEV+4%
    • 2 · Tvååker36% probability@2.88NordicbetEV+4%
    Bookmaker1 · Kristianstad FCX2 · Tvååker
    Betsafe2.203.40
    EV+ 4%
    2.88
    Betsson2.203.40
    EV+ 4%
    2.88
    Nordicbet2.203.40
    EV+ 4%
    2.88

    Odds updated 12 Aug, 21:36

    Odds movement

    10 %
    44 %39 %

    2.20 → 2.20

    X0 %
    29 %24 %

    3.40 → 3.40

    20 %
    34 %29 %

    2.88 → 2.88

    Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 10/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    1 matches
    Kristianstad FC 1Draw 0Tvååker 0
    Goals: 2–1 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Tvååkers IF have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Kristianstad FC
    Tvååker
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Kristianstad FC (17–24)
    Tvååker (20–23)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Kristianstad FC
    Svante Svedin: 182 passningar, xT 1.08SvedinLinus Svensson: 127 passningar, xT -0.03SvenssonAlbert Ejupi: 126 passningar, xT 0.23EjupiKasper Alsén: 123 passningar, xT 0.73AlsénAndré Kamp: 122 passningar, xT 0.2KampVilmer Lindberg: 120 passningar, xT 0.23LindbergWilliam Klevendal: 112 passningar, xT 0.19KlevendalViktor Agardius: 93 passningar, xT 0.15AgardiusOtto Larsson Wågert: 78 passningar, xT 0.39WågertPaolo Lilja: 62 passningar, xT 0.28LiljaOmar Dampha: 59 passningar, xT 0.3Dampha
    Tvååker
    Theodor Graudums: 231 passningar, xT 0.15GraudumsGabriel Gustavsson: 168 passningar, xT 1GustavssonVictor Karlsson: 152 passningar, xT 2.63KarlssonIsak Wiman: 146 passningar, xT -0.01WimanFelix Gustafsson: 140 passningar, xT 0.93GustafssonViggo Gustavsson: 124 passningar, xT 0.18GustavssonMelvin Sjöland: 117 passningar, xT 0.2SjölandLorik Ademi: 87 passningar, xT 0.54AdemiViktor Nilsson: 76 passningar, xT 0.04NilssonAlfred Ajdarevic: 60 passningar, xT 0.23AjdarevicAlbin Malmlöf Johansson: 51 passningar, xT -0.07Johansson
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Kristianstad FC
    Svante Svedin: 182 passningar, xT 1.08SvedinLinus Svensson: 127 passningar, xT -0.03SvenssonAlbert Ejupi: 126 passningar, xT 0.23EjupiKasper Alsén: 123 passningar, xT 0.73AlsénAndré Kamp: 122 passningar, xT 0.2KampVilmer Lindberg: 120 passningar, xT 0.23LindbergWilliam Klevendal: 112 passningar, xT 0.19KlevendalViktor Agardius: 93 passningar, xT 0.15AgardiusOtto Larsson Wågert: 78 passningar, xT 0.39WågertPaolo Lilja: 62 passningar, xT 0.28LiljaOmar Dampha: 59 passningar, xT 0.3Dampha
    Tvååker
    Theodor Graudums: 231 passningar, xT 0.15GraudumsGabriel Gustavsson: 168 passningar, xT 1GustavssonVictor Karlsson: 152 passningar, xT 2.63KarlssonIsak Wiman: 146 passningar, xT -0.01WimanFelix Gustafsson: 140 passningar, xT 0.93GustafssonViggo Gustavsson: 124 passningar, xT 0.18GustavssonMelvin Sjöland: 117 passningar, xT 0.2SjölandLorik Ademi: 87 passningar, xT 0.54AdemiViktor Nilsson: 76 passningar, xT 0.04NilssonAlfred Ajdarevic: 60 passningar, xT 0.23AjdarevicAlbin Malmlöf Johansson: 51 passningar, xT -0.07Johansson

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceKristianstad FCTvååker
    Points1722
    xPoints20.119
    xG per match11.1
    xGA per match1.31.7
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.210.16
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.240.28
    Playing styleKristianstad FCTvååker
    Build-up efficiency0.30.34
    Field tilt0.390.38
    xT per match1.31.4
    xTA per match1.61.6
    Won balls, offensive half3124
    Pressing intensity0.510.5
    Pressing efficiency0.250.26
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.290.28
    Entries into the box per match1211
    Entries into the box against1517
    Pass completion %0.760.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.71
    Passes per match323316
    Passes against per match395412
    Switches of play per match20.518.2
    Long balls per match3830
    Set piecesKristianstad FCTvååker
    xG from free kicks0.120.06
    Corners per match4.93.8
    Corners against per match4.66.7
    xG per corner0.020.05
    xGA per corner against0.020.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.440.48
    First touch, defensive corners %0.630.63
    OtherKristianstad FCTvååker
    Throw-in control0.540.55
    The goalkeepersOtto Larsson Wågert (Kristianstad FC)Alexander Capocci Nielsen (Tvååker)
    Saves4965
    Save %67%75%
    xG prevented45%66%
    Claims108 (96%)68 (90%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Kristianstad FC vs Tvååker according to our model?

    The model gives Kristianstad FC a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kristianstad FC 36%, draw 28%, Tvååker 36%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    1 52%X 23%2 25%
    The model missed the outcome
    PiteåPiteå
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    GefleGefle
    1 28%X 21%2 51%
    The model called the outcome
    IFK StocksundIFK Stocksund
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    KarlbergKarlberg
    1 40%X 20%2 40%
    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.