Swedish Ettan23°17 km/h

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    SollentunaSollentunaPossession & high press
    2–1
    JärfällaJärfällaCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Sollentuna (54%)

    Sollentuna – Järfälla · Swedish Ettan

    1 · Sollentuna 54%X 21%25% Järfälla · 2

    Analysis: Sollentuna – Järfälla

    Erik Lindberg · · How the predictions work

    Sollentuna FK's 54% model probability against FC Järfälla suggests a narrow edge, yet the matchup is a puzzle. FC Järfälla, with slightly better points and expected points, holds a slender upper hand, yet Sollentuna's sole head-to-head victory this season, albeit from a single encounter, tilts immediate history in their favor. A statistical quagmire if ever there was one.

    Sollentuna FK comes into this contest with a possession-based, high-press philosophy, expecting to impose their will on the game. With expected goals pegged at 1.87 for Sollentuna FK compared to 1.24 for FC Järfälla, it's reasonable to expect that the hosts will generate more opportunities. However, FC Järfälla's counter-attacking and crossing strategy could see them exploit any Sollentuna FK over-commitment. Despite Sollentuna FK's stronger defensive numbers (xGA 1.3), FC Järfälla’s aggressive style has helped them accrue slightly more xPoints over the season.

    A 1-1 scoreline is the model's top prediction at 11%, with a 2-1 home win close behind at 10%. Sollentuna's recent head-to-head triumph is just a single data point — a limited sample that should be weighed less than broader form and performance metrics. Both teams to score has a 60% likelihood, aligning with the expectation of a game featuring over 2.5 goals.

    The betting value is irresistible given the model's stance: home victory odds at 2.35 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all scream profitability with a 27% edge. While nothing is guaranteed in football betting, this angle stands out in a match where the numbers suggest a strategic tussle and potential Sollentuna FK edge. Expect a tight contest, with a 2-1 victory for the hosts seeming the likeliest outcome in the swirl of numbers and styles.

    SollentunaSollentuna
    Form DLLDL
    League ranking xG #28xGA #14xT #8xP/match #29Points #29
    Key players
    • Dida RashidiFxG 0.20 · xT 0.13
    • Johannes DanhoLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.31
    • Emil StenstrandCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.43
    JärfällaJärfälla
    Form LDWLL
    League ranking xG #18xGA #29xT #29xP/match #25Points #28
    Key players
    • Adam WürtzFxG 0.21 · xT 0.21
    • Abdulmannan KhalilFxG 0.46 · xT -0.05
    • Anthony PortillaCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.10
    Final score
    2 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Sollentuna 54% · Draw 21% · Järfälla 25%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Sollentuna FKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 4,93fair 5,59-12 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - FC JärfällaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,36fair 12,85-35 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Sollentuna – Järfälla

    Predicted score matrix

    Järfälla →
    Sollentuna →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.8%
    0–15.2%
    0–23.4%
    0–31.4%
    0–4+0.6%
    1
    1–08.1%
    1–110.6%
    1–26.4%
    1–32.6%
    1–4+1.1%
    2
    2–07.8%
    2–19.7%
    2–26.0%
    2–32.5%
    2–4+1.0%
    3
    3–04.9%
    3–16.0%
    3–23.7%
    3–31.5%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–03.5%
    4+–14.3%
    4+–22.7%
    4+–31.1%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.1-08%
    4. 4.2-08%
    5. 5.1-26%
    Expected goals
    1,87–1,24
    Both teams to score
    60%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,540%
    @2.28
    Over 2,560%
    @1.55

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Sollentuna to win54%
    • Over 1.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    44%

    Fair odds

    2.28

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Sollentuna to win54%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Dida Rashidi to score26%

    Combined probability

    10%

    Fair odds

    10.52

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score60%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Abdulmannan Khalil to score28%
    • Yosef Aksoy to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    3%

    Fair odds

    37.97

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Sollentuna54% probability@1.95BetsafeEV+6%
    • 1 · Sollentuna54% probability@1.95BetssonEV+6%
    • 1 · Sollentuna54% probability@1.95NordicbetEV+6%
    Bookmaker1 · SollentunaX2 · Järfälla
    Betsafe
    EV+ 6%
    1.95    		3.453.35
    Betsson
    EV+ 6%
    1.95    		3.453.35
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 6%
    1.95    		3.453.35

    Odds updated 15 Aug, 13:35

    Odds movement

    1-3 %
    47 %37 %

    2.02 → 1.95

    X-1 %
    31 %21 %

    3.50 → 3.45

    2+6 %
    36 %26 %

    3.15 → 3.35

    Betsson · 11 recorded price levels · 10/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    1 matches
    Sollentuna 1Draw 0Järfälla 0
    Goals: 1–0 (⌀ 1)

    Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Sollentuna
    Järfälla
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Sollentuna (13–23)
    Järfälla (22–35)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Sollentuna
    Emil Stenstrand: 296 passningar, xT 2.49StenstrandDavid Bengtsson: 267 passningar, xT 0.36BengtssonUmit Aras: 231 passningar, xT 0.21ArasWilgot Marshage: 223 passningar, xT 0.91MarshageKalle Selin Stregart: 206 passningar, xT 0.48StregartOskar Käck: 158 passningar, xT 0.53KäckSalim Nkubiri: 125 passningar, xT 0.7NkubiriJakob Bäckström: 94 passningar, xT 0.78BäckströmDida Rashidi: 81 passningar, xT 0.02RashidiErik Lundell: 78 passningar, xT -0.06LundellJonathan Zeberga: 68 passningar, xT 0.09Zeberga
    Järfälla
    Adrian Hamidi: 294 passningar, xT 0.18HamidiKenan Nisic: 202 passningar, xT 0.34NisicOscar Möller: 194 passningar, xT 0.17MöllerNathnael Medhin T: 177 passningar, xT 0.47TYosef Aksoy: 128 passningar, xT 0.14AksoyAdhavan Rajamohan: 122 passningar, xT 0.56RajamohanAdam Würtz: 104 passningar, xT 0.4WürtzOssian Ogestad: 88 passningar, xT 0.1OgestadAbdulmannan Khalil: 88 passningar, xT -0.1KhalilNaramsin Akdemir: 87 passningar, xT 0.32AkdemirErik von Feilitzen: 74 passningar, xT 0.14Feilitzen
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Sollentuna
    Emil Stenstrand: 296 passningar, xT 2.49StenstrandDavid Bengtsson: 267 passningar, xT 0.36BengtssonUmit Aras: 231 passningar, xT 0.21ArasWilgot Marshage: 223 passningar, xT 0.91MarshageKalle Selin Stregart: 206 passningar, xT 0.48StregartOskar Käck: 158 passningar, xT 0.53KäckSalim Nkubiri: 125 passningar, xT 0.7NkubiriJakob Bäckström: 94 passningar, xT 0.78BäckströmDida Rashidi: 81 passningar, xT 0.02RashidiErik Lundell: 78 passningar, xT -0.06LundellJonathan Zeberga: 68 passningar, xT 0.09Zeberga
    Järfälla
    Adrian Hamidi: 294 passningar, xT 0.18HamidiKenan Nisic: 202 passningar, xT 0.34NisicOscar Möller: 194 passningar, xT 0.17MöllerNathnael Medhin T: 177 passningar, xT 0.47TYosef Aksoy: 128 passningar, xT 0.14AksoyAdhavan Rajamohan: 122 passningar, xT 0.56RajamohanAdam Würtz: 104 passningar, xT 0.4WürtzOssian Ogestad: 88 passningar, xT 0.1OgestadAbdulmannan Khalil: 88 passningar, xT -0.1KhalilNaramsin Akdemir: 87 passningar, xT 0.32AkdemirErik von Feilitzen: 74 passningar, xT 0.14Feilitzen

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSollentunaJärfälla
    Points1415
    xPoints17.319.5
    xG per match1.11.3
    xGA per match1.31.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.120.3
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.210.34
    Playing styleSollentunaJärfälla
    Build-up efficiency0.320.31
    Field tilt0.580.36
    xT per match1.51.2
    xTA per match1.21.6
    Won balls, offensive half3020
    Pressing intensity0.450.44
    Pressing efficiency0.240.22
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.250.22
    Entries into the box per match1310
    Entries into the box against1117
    Pass completion %0.830.82
    Pass completion % under pressure0.770.79
    Passes per match409383
    Passes against per match365389
    Switches of play per match13.116.4
    Long balls per match3430
    Set piecesSollentunaJärfälla
    xG from free kicks0.140.21
    Corners per match4.54
    Corners against per match55.1
    xG per corner0.050.03
    xGA per corner against0.020.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.460.34
    First touch, defensive corners %0.650.5
    OtherSollentunaJärfälla
    Throw-in control0.60.55
    The goalkeepersOscar Franck (Sollentuna)Erik von Feilitzen (Järfälla)
    Saves3344
    Save %67%66%
    xG prevented37%45%
    Claims68 (93%)42 (88%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Sollentuna vs Järfälla according to our model?

    The model gives Sollentuna a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sollentuna 54%, draw 21%, Järfälla 25%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.