Swedish Ettan17°0,6 mm23 km/hUpdated

    Läs på svenska
    TvååkerTvååkerCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    The model's lean: 2 · Åtvidaberg (45%)
    ÅtvidabergÅtvidabergPossession control

    Tvååker – Åtvidaberg · Swedish Ettan

    1 · Tvååker 29%X 26%45% Åtvidaberg · 2
    TvååkerTvååker
    Form DWWLD
    League ranking xG #28xGA #26xT #13xP/match #24Points #14
    Key players
    • Mergim LaciFxG 0.22 · xT 0.1
    • Victor KarlssonLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.41
    • Ishak ShamounFxG 0.15 · xT 0.02
    ÅtvidabergÅtvidaberg
    Form DWWDL
    League ranking xG #9xGA #6xT #16xP/match #9Points #7
    Key players
    • Adam SamuelssonFxG 0.28 · xT 0.03
    • Haris RadetinacFxG 0.29 · xT 0.08
    • Ali KachmarLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.12

    Match prediction: Tvååker – Åtvidaberg

    Predicted score matrix

    Åtvidaberg →
    Tvååker →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.6%
    0–17.9%
    0–26.4%
    0–33.3%
    0–4+1.8%
    1
    1–07.1%
    1–111.7%
    1–28.8%
    1–34.6%
    1–4+2.5%
    2
    2–05.1%
    2–17.9%
    2–26.1%
    2–33.2%
    2–4+1.7%
    3
    3–02.4%
    3–13.7%
    3–22.8%
    3–31.5%
    3–4+0.8%
    4+
    4+–01.1%
    4+–11.7%
    4+–21.3%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.0-18%
    4. 4.2-18%
    5. 5.1-07%
    Expected goals
    1,39–1,55
    Both teams to score
    59%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,544%
    –
    Over 2,556%
    –

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Analysis: Tvååker – Åtvidaberg

    Sofia Andersson · · How the predictions work

    In the world of Ettan football, numbers often speak louder than words, and here they shout Åtvidabergs FF. With a 45% model probability of winning on their side, Åtvidabergs FF carry the statistical edge over Tvååkers IF, who are pegged at a mere 29%. The story they tell is one of control and precision, crafted through a playing style that cherishes possession. In contrast, Tvååkers IF's reliance on counter-attacks and crosses might not suffice against a team adept at dictating the tempo.

    Tvååkers IF have been consistently finding the net, scoring in 11 consecutive league matches. However, against the backdrop of Åtvidabergs FF's strong defensive record of xGA 1.0, that streak might just falter. The visitors also boast a superior xG per match of 1.5, underlining their attacking threat and highlighting the probable chinks in Tvååkers IF's armor, which concedes an xGA of 1.6 per match.

    Åtvidabergs FF's slight edge in both actual and expected points (26 vs 22 and 23.7 vs 18.5, respectively) further cements their status as favorites. Head-to-head results since 2023 don't overwhelmingly favor either side, with a win, a draw, and a loss each. Yet, the momentum is with Åtvidabergs FF, whose system seems to have found the right balance between attack and defense.

    The most likely scorelines of 1-1, 1-2, and 0-1 suggest a tight affair, but the scales tip towards Åtvidabergs FF. Expect them to edge this encounter, likely ending 1-2, aligning with the 56% probability of over 2.5 goals. Interestingly, Bet365's offering of Åtvidabergs FF to win at odds of 2.10 could be an enticing value bet, given their statistical superiority and 45% modeled win probability.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    3 matches
    Tvååker 1Draw 1Åtvidaberg 1
    Goals: 5–3 (⌀ 2,7)

    Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Tvååkers IF have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Tvååker
    Åtvidaberg
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Tvååker (19–21)
    Åtvidaberg (30–20)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Tvååker
    Theodor Graudums: 220 passningar, xT 0.13GraudumsGabriel Gustavsson: 173 passningar, xT 1GustavssonIsak Wiman: 169 passningar, xT 0.04WimanVictor Karlsson: 139 passningar, xT 2.36KarlssonViggo Gustavsson: 132 passningar, xT 0.16GustavssonFelix Gustafsson: 129 passningar, xT 0.45GustafssonMelvin Sjöland: 121 passningar, xT 0.28SjölandLorik Ademi: 105 passningar, xT 0.55AdemiAlfred Ajdarevic: 65 passningar, xT 0.17AjdarevicMelker Larsson: 58 passningar, xT 1LarssonAlbin Malmlöf Johansson: 57 passningar, xT -0.07Johansson
    Åtvidaberg
    Tufve Östlund: 364 passningar, xT 0.24ÖstlundMarkus Assarsson: 323 passningar, xT 0.5AssarssonSrdjan Sotra: 305 passningar, xT 1.54SotraJoshua Sivertsen: 303 passningar, xT 0.44SivertsenJesper Lindvall: 174 passningar, xT 0.26LindvallAli Riyadh Majeed Saedi: 162 passningar, xT 0.52SaediAlbin Bergström: 152 passningar, xT 0.86BergströmJoel Hedström: 150 passningar, xT 0.21HedströmErik Grandelius: 146 passningar, xT 0.32GrandeliusAli Kachmar: 142 passningar, xT 0.43KachmarCarl Thulin: 121 passningar, xT 0.08Thulin
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Tvååker
    Theodor Graudums: 220 passningar, xT 0.13GraudumsGabriel Gustavsson: 173 passningar, xT 1GustavssonIsak Wiman: 169 passningar, xT 0.04WimanVictor Karlsson: 139 passningar, xT 2.36KarlssonViggo Gustavsson: 132 passningar, xT 0.16GustavssonFelix Gustafsson: 129 passningar, xT 0.45GustafssonMelvin Sjöland: 121 passningar, xT 0.28SjölandLorik Ademi: 105 passningar, xT 0.55AdemiAlfred Ajdarevic: 65 passningar, xT 0.17AjdarevicMelker Larsson: 58 passningar, xT 1LarssonAlbin Malmlöf Johansson: 57 passningar, xT -0.07Johansson
    Åtvidaberg
    Tufve Östlund: 364 passningar, xT 0.24ÖstlundMarkus Assarsson: 323 passningar, xT 0.5AssarssonSrdjan Sotra: 305 passningar, xT 1.54SotraJoshua Sivertsen: 303 passningar, xT 0.44SivertsenJesper Lindvall: 174 passningar, xT 0.26LindvallAli Riyadh Majeed Saedi: 162 passningar, xT 0.52SaediAlbin Bergström: 152 passningar, xT 0.86BergströmJoel Hedström: 150 passningar, xT 0.21HedströmErik Grandelius: 146 passningar, xT 0.32GrandeliusAli Kachmar: 142 passningar, xT 0.43KachmarCarl Thulin: 121 passningar, xT 0.08Thulin

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceTvååkerÅtvidaberg
    Points2226
    xPoints18.523.7
    xG per match1.11.5
    xGA per match1.61
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.170.33
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.280.14
    Playing styleTvååkerÅtvidaberg
    Build-up efficiency0.340.33
    Field tilt0.390.59
    xT per match1.41.4
    xTA per match1.61.3
    Won balls, offensive half2430
    Pressing intensity0.490.54
    Pressing efficiency0.260.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.250.25
    Entries into the box per match1114
    Entries into the box against1710
    Pass completion %0.760.82
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.78
    Passes per match320443
    Passes against per match411349
    Switches of play per match18.414.2
    Long balls per match3030
    Set piecesTvååkerÅtvidaberg
    xG from free kicks0.060.1
    Corners per match3.96.2
    Corners against per match6.25.7
    xG per corner0.050.02
    xGA per corner against0.040.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.480.32
    First touch, defensive corners %0.60.67
    OtherTvååkerÅtvidaberg
    Throw-in control0.560.58
    The goalkeepersAlexander Capocci Nielsen (Tvååker)Hugo Claesson (Åtvidaberg)
    Saves6037
    Save %75%65%
    xG prevented66%41%
    Claims64 (94%)62 (95%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Tvååker vs Åtvidaberg according to our model?

    The model gives Åtvidaberg a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tvååker 29%, draw 26%, Åtvidaberg 45%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

    More matches in the league

    TvååkerTvååker
    2–2
    UtsiktenUtsikten
    1 52%X 23%2 25%
    The model missed the outcome
    PiteåPiteå
    0–2
    GefleGefle
    1 28%X 21%2 51%
    The model called the outcome
    LaholmLaholm
    0–1
    FC TrollhättanFC Trollhättan
    1 35%X 26%2 39%
    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.