01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Vasalund to win50%
- Over 1.5 goals89%
Swedish Ettan15°0,6 mm12 km/h
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VasalundPossession controlvs
IFK StocksundBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Vasalund (50%)Best value by the model: 2 · IFK Stocksund @ 4.00 (+4 %)
Vasalund – IFK Stocksund · Swedish Ettan
1 · Vasalund 50%X 24%26% IFK Stocksund · 2
50%
24%
26%
Analysis: Vasalund – IFK Stocksund
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
4.1 goals per meeting. That's the kind of number that gets pulses racing and bettors leaning towards an action-packed afternoon. Vasalunds IF and IFK Stocksund have, since 2023, built a reputation for high-scoring encounters, and the model agrees that this one should be no different. With a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and both teams likely to find the net, the stage is set for a lively affair.
Vasalunds IF comes into this match as the favorite, with a 50% win probability and a slight edge in recent head-to-heads, holding three wins to Stocksund's two. Their possession-heavy, high-press style isn't just for show; it's reflected in their 2.27 expected goals for this match. On the other hand, IFK Stocksund, though less favored with a 26% win probability, boasts a slightly better xG per match at 1.6, suggesting they can trouble the Vasalunds defense.
19 points to 11. That's the current gulf in the standings, with Vasalunds IF holding the upper hand. This isn't just a story of points, though; Vasalunds also edges the xPoints race by a smaller margin (19.5 to 16.3), indicating that while Stocksund's results have lagged, they've not been drastically outplayed. Yet, with Vasalunds' superior xGA per match (1.5 compared to Stocksund's 2.0), the hosts appear more capable of stemming the tide when it matters.
The weather forecast suggests rain and could temper the scoring frenzy slightly, but with so much pointing to a goal-filled game, it's hard to look past a 2-1 victory for Vasalunds IF. The most compelling angle, however, is the over 2.5 goals proposition, priced enticingly at 1.65 with Bet365. It's a sharp find given the historical and expected goal stats, though as always with football, the ball is round, and the net awaits the unexpected.
VasalundForm LLDWD
League ranking xG #17xGA #22xT #23xP/match #23Points #20
Key players
- Marko NikolicFxG 0.19 · xT 0.24
- Ali KhanLWxG 0.33 · xT 0.46
- Christopher SliwoFxG 0.55 · xT 0.03
IFK StocksundForm LLLWL
League ranking xG #10xGA #30xT #2xP/match #30Points #30
Key players
- Yosef RaufFxG 0.36 · xT 0.09
- Alexander JohanssonCMxG 0.16 · xT 0.57
- Langston Jasper WennerlindLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.34
Match prediction: Vasalund – IFK Stocksund
Predicted score matrix
IFK Stocksund →
Vasalund →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–02.5%
0–13.2%
0–22.6%
0–31.3%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–04.8%
1–18.0%
1–25.9%
1–33.0%
1–4+1.6%
2
2–05.8%
2–18.8%
2–26.7%
2–33.4%
2–4+1.9%
3
3–04.4%
3–16.7%
3–25.1%
3–32.6%
3–4+1.4%
4+
4+–04.2%
4+–16.4%
4+–24.9%
4+–32.5%
4+–4+1.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-19%
- 2.1-18%
- 3.2-27%
- 4.3-17%
- 5.1-26%
Expected goals
2,27–1,53
Both teams to score
70%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,80
18%
216%
320%
419%
5+33%
Under 2,527%
@2.82
Over 2,573%
@1.38EV+1%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Vasalund to win50%
- Over 2.5 goals73%
- Ali Khan to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score70%
- Over 2.5 goals73%
- Yosef Rauf to score23%
- Dary Izia Boto to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · IFK Stocksund26% probability@4.00BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
- 2 · IFK Stocksund26% probability@4.00BetssonEV+4%reference odds
- 2 · IFK Stocksund26% probability@4.00NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Vasalund | X | 2 · IFK Stocksund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.65 | 4.05 | EV+ 4% 4.00 |
| Betsson | 1.65 | 4.05 | EV+ 4% 4.00 |
| Nordicbet | 1.65 | 4.05 | EV+ 4% 4.00 |
Odds updated 18 Aug, 19:36
Odds movement
1+3 %
58 %53 %
1.60 → 1.65
X-5 %
24 %19 %
4.25 → 4.05
2-5 %
25 %20 %
4.20 → 4.00
Betsson · 3 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
7 matchesVasalund 3Draw 2IFK Stocksund 2
Goals: 18–11 (⌀ 4,1)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Key facts
- A high-scoring fixture: 4.1 goals per meeting on average.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Vasalund
IFK Stocksund
Vasalund (24–32)
IFK Stocksund (33–40)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Vasalund
IFK Stocksund
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Vasalund
IFK Stocksund
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Vasalund | IFK Stocksund |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 20 | 11 |
| xPoints | 21.2 | 17.9 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.34 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| Playing style | Vasalund | IFK Stocksund |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| Field tilt | 0.55 | 0.53 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.51 | 0.53 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 370 | 379 |
| Passes against per match | 319 | 338 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.3 | 12.9 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Vasalund | IFK Stocksund |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| Corners per match | 4.7 | 3.7 |
| Corners against per match | 5.3 | 4.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.52 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.51 |
| Other | Vasalund | IFK Stocksund |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| The goalkeepers | Sindri Olafsson (Vasalund) | Jakob Rhawi (IFK Stocksund) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 36 | 61 |
| Save % | 68% | 62% |
| xG prevented | 46% | 37% |
| Claims | 63 (90%) | 81 (86%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Vasalund vs IFK Stocksund according to our model?
The model gives Vasalund a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vasalund 50%, draw 24%, IFK Stocksund 26%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 9% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 73% and under at 27%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 70% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.