Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

Süper Lig22 August 202624°18 km/h

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FenerbahçePossession & high press

KonyasporCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Fenerbahçe (78%)

1 · Fenerbahçe 78%X 14%8% Konyaspor · 2

78%

14%

Analysis: Fenerbahçe – Konyaspor

Sofia Andersson · 18 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Fenerbahce's dominance in the Süper Lig has been unmistakable this season, and their upcoming clash against Konyaspor bears all the hallmarks of another victory for the Istanbul giants. Riding on a wave of impressive form, Fenerbahce have triumphed in all four head-to-head encounters against Konyaspor since 2023, albeit in a small sample size that shouldn't overshadow Fenerbahce's overall season form. The numbers tell a compelling story: a 78% probability of a Fenerbahce win, with the most likely scorelines being 2-0 (11%) or 3-0 (9%).

Fenerbahce's style, characterized by possession and high pressing, is perfectly suited to exploiting Konyaspor's vulnerabilities. Konyaspor, on the other hand, have struggled to find their rhythm, losing four consecutive matches. Their approach of counter-attacking and relying on crosses has not yielded dividends, as evidenced by their meager 0.83 expected goals against Fenerbahce's formidable 2.44. The expected goals within eight seconds of winning the ball further highlight the disparity, with Fenerbahce at 0.35 compared to Konyaspor's ineffective 0.0.

Fenerbahce win 71% of their home matches, a daunting statistic for any visiting side. With the expected goals per match heavily favoring Fenerbahce — 3.1 to Konyaspor's 0.7 — the home side seems poised to keep the scoreboard ticking. The model's numbers suggest a lean towards over 2.5 goals (63%), despite Konyaspor's ineffectiveness up front. The possibility of both teams scoring stands at 52%, but Konyaspor's recent form casts doubt on their ability to breach Fenerbahce's defense.

For punters, the odds favoring a Fenerbahce victory offer little margin for error. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all set the odds at 1.28, aligning perfectly with the model's 78% assessment. While the value appears neutral (0% edge), the consistency across bookmakers underscores the confidence in a Fenerbahce win. This match seems destined to follow the form book, with a 2-0 or 3-0 victory for the home side looking most likely.

Fenerbahçe

Form LWWDL

League ranking xG #1xGA #5xT #2xP/match #4Points #14

Key players

Anderson Souza ConceiçãoFxG 0.69 · xT -0.08
Levent MercanLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.66
Mattéo Elias Kenzo Guendouzi OliéCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.45

Konyaspor

Form WLLLL

League ranking xG #13xGA #14xT #14xP/match #12Points #15

Key players

Yhoan Many AndzouanaRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.40
Jackson Muleka KyanvubuFxG 0.12 · xT -0.16
Chidozie Collins AwaziemCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.01

Match prediction: Fenerbahçe – Konyaspor

Predicted score matrix

Konyaspor →

Fenerbahçe →

0–04.0%

0–12.9%

0–21.3%

0–30.4%

0–4+0.1%

1–09.0%

1–17.9%

1–23.2%

1–30.9%

1–4+0.2%

2–011.3%

2–19.4%

2–23.9%

2–31.1%

2–4+0.3%

3–09.2%

3–17.6%

3–23.2%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.2%

4+–010.0%

4+–18.3%

4+–23.5%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.2-19%
3.3-09%
4.1-09%
5.1-18%

Expected goals

2,44–0,83

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,537%

@2.52

Over 2,563%

@1.47

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Fenerbahçe to win78%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Fenerbahçe to win78%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Anderson Souza Conceição to score37%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Anderson Souza Conceição to score37%
Yhoan Many Andzouana to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Fenerbahçe78% probability@1.28BetsafeEV+0%reference odds
1 · Fenerbahçe78% probability@1.28BetssonEV+0%reference odds
1 · Fenerbahçe78% probability@1.28NordicbetEV+0%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Fenerbahçe	X	2 · Konyaspor
Betsafe	EV+ 0% 1.28	5.00	10.50
Betsson	EV+ 0% 1.28	5.00	10.50
Nordicbet	EV+ 0% 1.28	5.00	10.50

Odds updated 18 Aug, 12:36

Odds movement

10 %

75 %70 %

1.28 → 1.28

X0 %

21 %16 %

5.00 → 5.00

20 %

11 %6 %

10.50 → 10.50

Over 2,5-1 %

65 %60 %

1.49 → 1.47

Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Fenerbahçe 4Draw 0Konyaspor 0

Goals: 12–3 (⌀ 3,8)

Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.

Key facts

Konyaspor have lost 4 in a row.
Fenerbahce win 71% of their home matches all-time (35 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Fenerbahçe

Konyaspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Fenerbahçe (1–2)

Konyaspor (0–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Fenerbahçe

Konyaspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Fenerbahçe

Konyaspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Fenerbahçe	Konyaspor
Points	0	0
xPoints	2.1	1
xG per match	3.1	0.7
xGA per match	0.67	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.35	0
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.17	0.29

Playing style	Fenerbahçe	Konyaspor
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.87	0.23
xT per match	2.2	0.63
xTA per match	0.84	0.86
Won balls, offensive half	28	24
Pressing intensity	0.28	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.2
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.35	0.1
Entries into the box per match	23	8
Entries into the box against	4	14
Pass completion %	0.84	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.69
Passes per match	623	300
Passes against per match	213	415
Switches of play per match	48.5	27.6
Long balls per match	37	30

Set pieces	Fenerbahçe	Konyaspor
xG from free kicks	0.9	0.07
Corners per match	11.9	0.95
Corners against per match	0.99	6.7
xG per corner	0.01	0.13
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.55	1
First touch, defensive corners %	0	0.71

Other	Fenerbahçe	Konyaspor
Throw-in control	0.84	0.67

The goalkeepers	Irfan Can Kahveci (Fenerbahçe)	Bahadır Han Güngördü (Konyaspor)
Saves	1	3
Save %	100%	100%
xG prevented	100%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor according to our model?

The model gives Fenerbahçe a 78% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fenerbahçe 78%, draw 14%, Konyaspor 8%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.