Rizespor vs Samsunspor: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

Süper Lig22 August 202624°7 km/h

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RizesporPossession & high press

SamsunsporPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Rizespor (40%)

1 · Rizespor 40%X 29%31% Samsunspor · 2

40%

29%

31%

Analysis: Rizespor – Samsunspor

Anna Karlsson · 18 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

3 points in the bag for Rizespor against Samsunspor’s solitary 1 tell a story of form leaning towards the home side. Despite the slender margins, the model’s 40% chance for a Rizespor victory seems justified. Rizespor’s defensive solidity is reflected in an xGA of just 0.7 per match, a marked contrast to Samsunspor’s leakier back line conceding an xGA of 1.4. This defensive edge could be the crucial difference in a game where both sides are likely to see their chances.

Rizespor’s playing style, rooted in possession and high pressing, could unsettle Samsunspor, who prefer to control possession rather than endure relentless pressure. The expected goals (1.35 for Rizespor and 1.28 for Samsunspor) suggest a tight contest, but the edge in defensive stability could tilt the balance in Rizespor’s favor. With the most likely scoreline projected at 1-1, closely followed by 1-0 and 0-1, a narrow victory for the home side seems plausible.

Samsunspor must overcome a recent head-to-head record that shows just one win in four encounters since 2023—a small sample, yes, but a psychological hurdle nonetheless. With Rizespor having claimed two of those matchups and the draw making up the rest, home advantage coupled with superior current form gives them the nod. The balanced expected goals for both clubs, alongside their pronounced styles, hint at periods of stalemate punctuated by decisive moments.

Over 2.5 goals is almost a coin flip at 49%, but the defensive capabilities of Rizespor could well see this game end at a low scoreline. The model’s lean is towards a Rizespor victory, and the data supports a close 1-0 win for the home side. However, the sharpest angle might be found in the odds offered by Bet365 for a home win at 2.50, representing clear value in a match where Rizespor's defensive steel is likely to shine through.

Rizespor

Form LWLDW

League ranking xG #5xGA #6xT #11xP/match #7Points #5

Key players

Attila MocsiCBxG 0.19 · xT 0.20
Qazim LaçiFxG 0.77 · xT 0.06
Modibo SagnanCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07

Samsunspor

Form WWLWD

League ranking xG #4xGA #11xT #5xP/match #9Points #13

Key players

Emre KilincLWxG 0.41 · xT 0.17
Josafat Wooding MendesRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.36
Marius MouandilmadjiFxG 0.77 · xT 0.00

Match prediction: Rizespor – Samsunspor

Predicted score matrix

Samsunspor →

Rizespor →

0–07.6%

0–18.9%

0–25.9%

0–32.5%

0–4+1.1%

1–09.3%

1–112.8%

1–28.0%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.4%

2–06.5%

2–18.4%

2–25.4%

2–32.3%

2–4+1.0%

3–02.9%

3–13.8%

3–22.4%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-09%
3.0-19%
4.2-18%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,35–1,28

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.91

Over 2,549%

@1.81

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Rizespor or draw (1X)65%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Rizespor or draw (1X)65%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Qazim Laçi to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Marius Mouandilmadji to score32%
Yalçın Kayan to be booked25%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Rizespor	X	2 · Samsunspor
Betsafe	2.22	3.30	3.15
Betsson	2.22	3.30	3.15
Nordicbet	2.22	3.30	3.15

Odds updated 18 Aug, 13:36

Odds movement

1-1 %

44 %39 %

2.25 → 2.22

X+2 %

31 %26 %

3.25 → 3.30

2+2 %

32 %27 %

3.10 → 3.15

Over 2,50 %

54 %49 %

1.81 → 1.81

Betsson · 4 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Rizespor 2Draw 1Samsunspor 1

Goals: 8–5 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Rizespor

Samsunspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Rizespor (1–0)

Samsunspor (3–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Rizespor

Samsunspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Rizespor

Samsunspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Rizespor	Samsunspor
Points	3	1
xPoints	1.7	1.4
xG per match	1.4	1.9
xGA per match	0.7	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.37
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0	0.57

Playing style	Rizespor	Samsunspor
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.29
Field tilt	0.77	0.81
xT per match	0.86	1.2
xTA per match	0.63	0.36
Won balls, offensive half	19	29
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.2
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.48
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.45
Entries into the box per match	14	21
Entries into the box against	8	10
Pass completion %	0.83	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.8	0.69
Passes per match	415	406
Passes against per match	300	132
Switches of play per match	42.8	34.2
Long balls per match	38	40

Set pieces	Rizespor	Samsunspor
xG from free kicks	0.12	0
Corners per match	6.7	3.8
Corners against per match	0.95	7.6
xG per corner	0.01	0
xGA per corner against	0.13	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.29	0.25
First touch, defensive corners %	0	0.5

Other	Rizespor	Samsunspor
Throw-in control	0.84	0.73

The goalkeepers	Yahia Fofana (Rizespor)	Okan Kocuk (Samsunspor)
Saves	3	4
Save %	100%	57%
xG prevented	100%	51%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Rizespor vs Samsunspor according to our model?

The model gives Rizespor a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rizespor 40%, draw 29%, Samsunspor 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.