Bet builder: Austria Wien – LASK

Connected legs — match result and total goals — are priced jointly from the model’s full score matrix: the probability of the combination is the sum of every final score where both legs come true. That is more honest than multiplying legs one by one, since a win and a high-scoring game are often connected.

The player legs come from the simulator’s player layer, which distributes each team’s expected goals, assists and bookings across the players by role and strength in the latest line-up; the corner lines come from a dedicated corner model reading the same team description. As soon as the slip holds a player or corner leg, the whole slip is priced jointly: it runs through 20,000 simulated matches where scorers, assists, cards and corners are sampled together with the final score, so every correlation carries into the price.

Fair odds is 1 divided by the combined probability — the price without the bookmaker’s margin. Find higher odds at a bookmaker and the combination holds mathematical value according to the model.

Build your own combination does exactly the same with your picks: every match leg you add narrows the score matrix cell by cell, and if the slip holds player or corner legs the whole slip is priced jointly via simulations — so the price you see is the model’s honest price for your exact slip.

Want to price from a different scenario — a changed line-up, a suspension, neutral ground? Run your own simulation on the simulator tab and press “Use in bet builder”. Every bet on this page is then re-priced from your simulation until you reset or reload the page.