Austrian Bundesliga20°12 km/h

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    Austria WienAustria Wien
    02
    LASKLASK
    The model's lean: 2 · LASK (36%)Best value by the model: 1 · Austria Wien @ 3.87 (+37 %)

    Austria WienLASK · Austrian Bundesliga

    1 · Austria Wien 35%X 29%36% LASK · 2
    Final score
    02
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Austria Wien 35% · Draw 29% · LASK 36%

    Match prediction: Austria WienLASK

    Predicted score matrix

    LASK
    Austria Wien
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.8%
    0–110.5%
    0–26.9%
    0–32.9%
    0–4+1.2%
    1
    1–09.7%
    1–113.2%
    1–28.2%
    1–33.5%
    1–4+1.5%
    2
    2–06.0%
    2–17.7%
    2–24.9%
    2–32.1%
    2–4+0.9%
    3
    3–02.4%
    3–13.1%
    3–21.9%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–00.9%
    4+–11.2%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-110%
    3. 3.1-010%
    4. 4.0-09%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,191,28
    Both teams to score
    51%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,555%
    @2.13EV+18%
    Over 2,545%
    @1.76

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance LASK or draw (X2)66%
    • Under 3.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    51%

    Fair odds

    1.98

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 2 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance LASK or draw (X2)66%
    • Under 2.5 goals55%

    Combined probability

    39%

    Fair odds

    2.54

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 2 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score51%
    • Over 2.5 goals45%

    Combined probability

    37%

    Fair odds

    2.68

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Austria Wien35% probability@3.87PinnacleEV+37%
    • Under 2.555% probability@2.13PinnacleEV+18%
    • X · Draw29% probability@3.79PinnacleEV+10%
    Bookmaker1 · Austria WienX2 · LASK
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 37%
    3.87
    EV+ 10%
    3.79
    1.93

    Odds updated 9 Aug, 10:09

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 2 August — the odds have shortened from 1.89 to 1.76 (−7%).

    1+3 %
    29 %24 %

    3.773.87

    X+8 %
    28 %23 %

    3.503.79

    20 %
    50 %45 %

    1.931.93

    Over 2,5-7 %
    55 %50 %

    1.891.76

    Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 02/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Austria Wien vs LASK according to our model?

    The model gives LASK a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Austria Wien 35%, draw 29%, LASK 36%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.