Burnley vs West Ham United: Prediction & Odds (16 Aug 2026)

EFL Championship16 August 2026 17:00 CESTTurf Moor, Burnley15°19 km/h

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BurnleyPossession control

West Ham United

The model's lean: 2 · West Ham United (44%)

1 · Burnley 29%X 27%44% West Ham United · 2

29%

27%

44%

Analysis: Burnley – West Ham United

Marcus Johansson · 11 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Burnley march into this fixture with a spring in their step, riding a wave of five consecutive victories. Yet, despite their impressive streak, the probabilities and expected goals suggest they might be up against it when West Ham United come to town. The model assigns a notable 44% win probability to the visitors, indicating a clear lean towards West Ham United in this matchup, further echoed by the expected goals tally, which tips slightly in the Hammers' favor at 1.62 to Burnley's 1.20.

Burnley's fortress of Turf Moor has historically been a hard nut to crack, boasting a 61% win rate in their 23 home matches to date. However, the small head-to-head sample size against West Ham United shouldn't be overvalued here; recent form and expected goals are more telling. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 12% hints at Burnley's resilience, but the 1-2 and 0-1 scorelines both at 9% underscore West Ham's edge.

The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 53%, suggesting a slight tilt towards a more open game. However, with a 56% chance for both teams to score, the contest could easily turn into a tight affair with goals on either side. Burnley's attacking form will look to challenge these numbers, but West Ham's slightly superior xG indicates they might just have the extra cutting edge.

West Ham United's odds of 2.3 to win away, available with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, represent a calculated value bet. The model's evaluation gives it a 44% chance, slightly above the offered odds, providing a 1% edge for the shrewd punter. While Burnley's form is impressive, the numbers nudge the value hunters towards the away side, making West Ham United an appealing prospect for those looking to capitalize on a potential upset.

Burnley

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #11xGA #2xT #7xP/match #3Points #2

Key players

Zian FlemmingFxG 0.37 · xT 0.05
Jaidon AnthonyLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.16
Josh BrownhillCAMxG 0.27 · xT 0.13

West Ham United

Match prediction: Burnley – West Ham United

Predicted score matrix

West Ham United →

Burnley →

0–06.3%

0–19.3%

0–27.8%

0–34.2%

0–4+2.5%

1–06.8%

1–111.9%

1–29.4%

1–35.1%

1–4+2.9%

2–04.3%

2–17.0%

2–25.6%

2–33.0%

2–4+1.8%

3–01.7%

3–12.8%

3–22.2%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.7%

4+–00.7%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-19%
4.0-28%
5.2-17%

Expected goals

1,20–1,62

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.09

Over 2,553%

@1.75

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance West Ham United or draw (X2)72%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance West Ham United or draw (X2)72%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Pablo Felipe Pereira de Jesus to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Pablo Felipe Pereira de Jesus to score25%
Aaron James Ramsey to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · West Ham United44% probability@2.30BetsafeEV+1%
2 · West Ham United44% probability@2.30BetssonEV+1%
2 · West Ham United44% probability@2.30NordicbetEV+1%

Bookmaker	1 · Burnley	X	2 · West Ham United
Betsafe	2.95	3.50	EV+ 1% 2.30
Betsson	2.95	3.50	EV+ 1% 2.30
Nordicbet	2.95	3.50	EV+ 1% 2.30
Pinnacle	3.03	3.48	EV+ 1% 2.30

Odds updated 11 Aug, 16:36

Statistics

Key facts

Burnley come into this round on 5 straight wins.
Burnley win 61% of their home matches all-time (23 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Burnley

When goals are scored and conceded — 2024

Burnley (69–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Burnley

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Burnley

The goalkeepers	James Trafford (Burnley)	West Ham United
Saves	90	–
Save %	85%	–
xG prevented	65%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Burnley vs West Ham United according to our model?

The model gives West Ham United a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Burnley 29%, draw 27%, West Ham United 44%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.