Sheffield United vs Birmingham City: Prediction & Odds (15 Aug 2026)

EFL Championship15 August 2026 18:30 CESTBramall Lane, Sheffield19°16 km/h

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Sheffield UnitedPossession control

0–0

Birmingham CityPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Sheffield United (42%)Best value by the model: 2 · Birmingham City @ 3.19 (+2 %)

1 · Sheffield United 42%X 27%32% Birmingham City · 2

42%

27%

32%

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Analysis: Sheffield United – Birmingham City

Erik Lindberg · 15 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Two matches, one win, one draw. That's the head-to-head record of Sheffield United against Birmingham City since 2023. A small sample, barely a blip on the radar compared to the rich tapestry of form and expected goals that paints a fuller picture of this Championship clash. But numbers don’t lie, and they suggest Sheffield United may have the upper hand — just.

Birmingham City’s unbeaten run in their last five league matches certainly adds a layer of intrigue. Yet, Sheffield United's style, a possession-control model honed to frustrate and break down opponents, might just be the antidote to Birmingham City’s identical approach. Sheffield United's expected goals (xG) per match at 1.6 slightly edge out Birmingham’s 1.5, suggesting they might create more meaningful chances, and this match feels ripe for those small margins to make a difference.

Sheffield United, with a model probability of 42% to win, is favored, albeit narrowly. The most probable scorelines tilt towards a tight affair — 1-1 at 13% is the likeliest, but the possibility of a Sheffield United 1-0 triumph, sitting at 10%, cannot be dismissed. The expected goals tally hints at both sides finding the net, a sentiment echoed by a 54% chance of both teams scoring. Yet, the over 2.5 goals is a coin flip at 49%, and with both teams preferring to control possession, a low-scoring contest seems more probable.

Birmingham City may lead in points with 64 to Sheffield United's 60, but when it comes to xPoints, Sheffield United has the slightest edge at 65.8. This subtle ascendancy coupled with the Pinnacle odds of 2.42 for a Sheffield United win offers a value opportunity, if only by a whisker at a 1% edge. The edge is small, but in betting, it's these minor insights that can tip the scales in your favor.

Sheffield United

Form WWLLW

League ranking xG #6xGA #8xT #5xP/match #9Points #14

Key players

Patrick BamfordFxG 0.39 · xT 0.07
Harrison BurrowsLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.16
Callum OhareCAMxG 0.27 · xT 0.10

Birmingham City

Form WDWWD

League ranking xG #8xGA #5xT #8xP/match #10Points #10

Key players

Marvin DuckschFxG 0.32 · xT 0.05
Kai Harley WagnerLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.22
Alexander William CochraneLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.12

Final score

0 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Sheffield United 42% · Draw 27% · Birmingham City 32%

Match prediction: Sheffield United – Birmingham City

Predicted score matrix

Birmingham City →

Sheffield United →

0–07.6%

0–18.6%

0–25.6%

0–32.3%

0–4+1.0%

1–09.6%

1–112.8%

1–27.7%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.3%

2–06.9%

2–18.6%

2–25.4%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.9%

3–03.2%

3–14.0%

3–22.5%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.5%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.0-19%
4.2-19%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,38–1,25

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.87

Over 2,549%

@2.02

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Sheffield United or draw (1X)67%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Sheffield United or draw (1X)67%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Patrick James Bamford to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals49%
August Priske Flyger to score24%
Joseph Matthew Rothwell to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Birmingham City32% probability@3.19PinnacleEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sheffield United	X	2 · Birmingham City
Pinnacle	2.34	3.43	EV+ 2% 3.19

Odds updated 15 Aug, 10:22

Odds movement

1-5 %

42 %37 %

2.47 → 2.34

X+6 %

31 %26 %

3.24 → 3.43

2+9 %

34 %29 %

2.94 → 3.19

Over 2,50 %

50 %45 %

2.02 → 2.02

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 11/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Sheffield United 1Draw 1Birmingham City 0

Goals: 4–1 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

Key facts

Birmingham City are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sheffield United

Birmingham City

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Sheffield United (66–66)

Birmingham City (57–56)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sheffield United

Birmingham City

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sheffield United

Birmingham City

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sheffield United	Birmingham City
Points	60	64
xPoints	65.8	65.5
xG per match	1.6	1.5
xGA per match	1.3	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.23	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.17

Playing style	Sheffield United	Birmingham City
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.34
Field tilt	0.57	0.57
xT per match	1	0.89
xTA per match	0.84	0.76
Won balls, offensive half	29	25
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.36	0.33
Entries into the box per match	15	13
Entries into the box against	12	11
Pass completion %	0.74	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.71
Passes per match	339	348
Passes against per match	294	288
Switches of play per match	21.4	20
Long balls per match	29	28

Set pieces	Sheffield United	Birmingham City
xG from free kicks	0.15	0.15
Corners per match	6.6	5.7
Corners against per match	5	4.1
xG per corner	0.05	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.32
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.56

Other	Sheffield United	Birmingham City
Throw-in control	0.7	0.71

The goalkeepers	Michael Cooper (Sheffield United)	James Beadle (Birmingham City)
Saves	93	89
Save %	69%	70%
xG prevented	55%	60%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sheffield United

Fixtures, form & tips

Birmingham City

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sheffield United vs Birmingham City according to our model?

The model gives Sheffield United a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sheffield United 42%, draw 27%, Birmingham City 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.