Sheffield United vs Birmingham City: Prediction & Odds (15 Aug 2026)

EFL Championship15 August 2026 18:30 CESTBramall Lane, Sheffield18°15 km/h

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Sheffield UnitedPossession control

Birmingham CityPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Sheffield United (42%)

1 · Sheffield United 42%X 27%32% Birmingham City · 2

42%

27%

32%

Analysis: Sheffield United – Birmingham City

Erik Lindberg · 11 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Sixty points versus sixty-four—Sheffield United and Birmingham City find themselves in a tight Championship tussle. Though Birmingham City holds a slight points advantage, the xPoints tell a different story, giving Sheffield the slightest edge with 65.8 to Birmingham's 65.5. This clash is poised to be a chess match between two sides that favor possession control, a stylistic mirror that could keep the scoreboard less lively than some might hope.

Sheffield United's home record against Birmingham since 2023 features a small sample size of two encounters, but an undefeated run nonetheless, with one win and one draw. Despite this historical note, Birmingham City arrives unbeaten in their last five league matches, a streak that could instill confidence and momentum in their camp.

Model probabilities make Sheffield United the favorites at 42% to win, with the draw at 27% and Birmingham City at 32%. The most likely scorelines—1-1 (13%) and 1-0 (10%)—suggest a close contest, with expected goals (xG) figures of 1.38 for Sheffield United and 1.25 for Birmingham City pointing to a narrow margin. With the over 2.5 goals probability at just 49%, the inclination is towards a lower-scoring affair, especially given both teams' controlled possession style.

Sheffield United, starting with a slight edge in expected goals per match (1.6 to Birmingham's 1.5), also shines in the value department. Pinnacle offers odds of 2.47 for a Sheffield win, providing a notable 3% edge over the model's 42% probability. This represents a sharp betting angle for those inclined to back home advantage, despite Birmingham's unbeaten streak and defensive solidity, as indicated by their slightly better xGA of 1.2.

So, while Birmingham City's form cannot be dismissed, the numbers lean towards Sheffield United, suggesting a 1-0 victory. In the intricate dance of xPoints and xG, the value lies with the Blades.

Sheffield United

Form WWLLW

League ranking xG #6xGA #8xT #5xP/match #9Points #14

Key players

Patrick BamfordFxG 0.39 · xT 0.07
Harrison BurrowsLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.16
Callum OhareCAMxG 0.27 · xT 0.10

Birmingham City

Form WDWWD

League ranking xG #8xGA #5xT #8xP/match #10Points #10

Key players

Marvin DuckschFxG 0.32 · xT 0.05
Kai Harley WagnerLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.22
Alexander William CochraneLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Sheffield United – Birmingham City

Predicted score matrix

Birmingham City →

Sheffield United →

0–07.6%

0–18.6%

0–25.6%

0–32.3%

0–4+1.0%

1–09.6%

1–112.8%

1–27.7%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.3%

2–06.9%

2–18.6%

2–25.4%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.9%

3–03.2%

3–14.0%

3–22.5%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.5%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.0-19%
4.2-19%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,38–1,25

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.81

Over 2,549%

@2.02

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Sheffield United or draw (1X)67%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Sheffield United or draw (1X)67%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Patrick James Bamford to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals49%
August Priske Flyger to score24%
Joseph Matthew Rothwell to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Sheffield United42% probability@2.47PinnacleEV+3%

Bookmaker	1 · Sheffield United	X	2 · Birmingham City
Pinnacle	EV+ 3% 2.47	3.24	2.94

Odds updated 11 Aug, 15:53

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Sheffield United 1Draw 1Birmingham City 0

Goals: 4–1 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

Key facts

Birmingham City are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sheffield United

Birmingham City

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Sheffield United (66–66)

Birmingham City (57–56)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sheffield United

Birmingham City

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sheffield United

Birmingham City

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sheffield United	Birmingham City
Points	60	64
xPoints	65.8	65.5
xG per match	1.6	1.5
xGA per match	1.3	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.23	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.17

Playing style	Sheffield United	Birmingham City
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.34
Field tilt	0.57	0.57
xT per match	1	0.89
xTA per match	0.84	0.76
Won balls, offensive half	29	25
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.36	0.33
Entries into the box per match	15	13
Entries into the box against	12	11
Pass completion %	0.74	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.71
Passes per match	339	348
Passes against per match	294	288
Switches of play per match	21.4	20
Long balls per match	29	28

Set pieces	Sheffield United	Birmingham City
xG from free kicks	0.15	0.15
Corners per match	6.6	5.7
Corners against per match	5	4.1
xG per corner	0.05	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.32
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.56

Other	Sheffield United	Birmingham City
Throw-in control	0.7	0.71

The goalkeepers	Michael Cooper (Sheffield United)	James Beadle (Birmingham City)
Saves	93	89
Save %	69%	70%
xG prevented	55%	60%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sheffield United vs Birmingham City according to our model?

The model gives Sheffield United a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sheffield United 42%, draw 27%, Birmingham City 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.