Stoke City vs Swansea City: Prediction & Odds (15 Aug 2026)

EFL Championship15 August 2026 16:00 CESTbet365 Stadium, Stoke-on-Trent17°19 km/h

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Stoke CityPossession control

1–2

Swansea CityPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Swansea City (38%)

1 · Stoke City 34%X 28%38% Swansea City · 2

34%

28%

38%

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Analysis: Stoke City – Swansea City

Oscar Nilsson · 15 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Stoke City fans find themselves in a rough patch, as their team has stumbled to four consecutive defeats. This bleak streak contrasts with their head-to-head edge over Swansea City, having won two of their last four encounters since 2023. However, with only four matches to consider, head-to-head statistics hold less weight than current form and expected goals, and it's clear that the momentum is with the visitors from Wales.

Swansea City comes into this clash with the model slightly tipping the scales in their favor at 38% to Stoke’s 34%. A tight contest seems inevitable, with the expected goals nearly identical at Stoke City 1.20 to Swansea City’s 1.18. The probability of a draw is not negligible either, set at 28%, highlighting how evenly matched the two sides are in terms of playing style and underlying numbers.

Stoke City has been struggling, and their possession control strategy hasn’t translated into results lately. With both teams sharing a similar possession-based approach, it might come down to which side can break through the other’s defensive setup. The most likely scorelines—1-1 (14%) and narrow 1-0 wins for either side (11%)—suggest a closely fought encounter, but with an edge towards a low-scoring affair. The over 2.5 goals probability at 42% leans under, reinforced by the modest likelihood of both teams scoring at just 49%.

Swansea City’s superior points tally in both actual and expected metrics gives them a slight edge, and for those looking to find betting value, the numbers point to the Welsh side. The away win at odds of 3.15 with Pinnacle offers a substantial 19% edge according to the model, making it an enticing option for punters seeking value. While nothing is guaranteed, the potential for a profitable outcome on Swansea City's side is hard to overlook in a matchup that promises to be more about grit than goals.

Stoke City

Form DLLLL

League ranking xG #17xGA #14xT #20xP/match #20Points #17

Key players

Benjamin Sorba William ThomasLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.17
Aaron William CresswellLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.13
Junior TchamadeuRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.15

Swansea City

Form WLWDW

League ranking xG #13xGA #13xT #21xP/match #19Points #11

Key players

Zan VipotnikFxG 0.42 · xT 0.04
Josh TymonLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.14
Ben CabangoCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.07

Final score

1 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Stoke City 34% · Draw 28% · Swansea City 38%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - SwanseaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 11,02fair 14,36-23 %

Miss

Matchresultat - StokeBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,44fair 13,91-39 %

Miss

Match prediction: Stoke City – Swansea City

Predicted score matrix

Swansea City →

Stoke City →

0–09.7%

0–110.6%

0–26.5%

0–32.5%

0–4+1.0%

1–010.8%

1–113.5%

1–27.7%

1–33.0%

1–4+1.2%

2–06.7%

2–17.9%

2–24.6%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.7%

3–02.7%

3–13.1%

3–21.8%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.2%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-011%
3.0-111%
4.0-010%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,20–1,18

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.80EV+4%

Over 2,542%

@2.07

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Swansea City or draw (X2)64%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Swansea City or draw (X2)64%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Adam Uche Idah to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Adam Uche Idah to score28%
Marko Seufatu Nikola Stamenić to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Swansea City38% probability@3.10PinnacleEV+18%reference odds
2 · Swansea City38% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
2 · Swansea City38% probability@3.05BetssonEV+16%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Stoke City	X	2 · Swansea City
Betsafe	2.32	3.30	EV+ 16% 3.05
Betsson	2.32	3.30	EV+ 16% 3.05
Nordicbet	2.32	3.30	EV+ 16% 3.05
Pinnacle	2.40	3.36	EV+ 18% 3.10

Odds updated 15 Aug, 10:36

Odds movement

1-1 %

42 %37 %

2.42 → 2.40

X+3 %

31 %26 %

3.27 → 3.36

2+3 %

34 %29 %

3.00 → 3.10

Over 2,5-2 %

48 %43 %

2.12 → 2.07

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 11/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Stoke City 2Draw 1Swansea City 1

Goals: 5–4 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

Key facts

Stoke City have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Stoke City

Swansea City

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Stoke City (51–56)

Swansea City (57–59)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Stoke City

Swansea City

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Stoke City

Swansea City

The teams in numbers

Performance	Stoke City	Swansea City
Points	55	64
xPoints	57.5	57.7
xG per match	1.2	1.3
xGA per match	1.4	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.21

Playing style	Stoke City	Swansea City
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.27
Field tilt	0.46	0.53
xT per match	0.76	0.74
xTA per match	0.84	0.91
Won balls, offensive half	24	26
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.37
Entries into the box per match	10	11
Entries into the box against	12	12
Pass completion %	0.74	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.73
Passes per match	329	393
Passes against per match	299	311
Switches of play per match	26.6	23.6
Long balls per match	32	28

Set pieces	Stoke City	Swansea City
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.12
Corners per match	6	4.6
Corners against per match	4.7	5.3
xG per corner	0.05	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.08	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.31	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.64

Other	Stoke City	Swansea City
Throw-in control	0.7	0.75

The goalkeepers	Viktor Johansson (Stoke City)	Lawrence Vigouroux (Swansea City)
Saves	74	147
Save %	75%	73%
xG prevented	47%	53%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Stoke City

Fixtures, form & tips

Swansea City

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Stoke City vs Swansea City according to our model?

The model gives Swansea City a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Stoke City 34%, draw 28%, Swansea City 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.