01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Middlesbrough to win48%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
EFL ChampionshipRiverside Stadium, Middlesbrough18°17 km/h
Läs på svenska
MiddlesbroughPossession & high press2–1
Lincoln CityThe model's lean: 1 · Middlesbrough (48%)Best value by the model: 2 · Lincoln City @ 7.70 (+109 %)
Middlesbrough vs Lincoln City · EFL Championship
1 · Middlesbrough 48%X 25%27% Lincoln City · 2
48%
25%
27%
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Middlesbrough – Lincoln City
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
There’s a palpable tension in the air as Middlesbrough, unbeaten in their last five league matches, prepare to host Lincoln City. The model odds give a slight nod to Middlesbrough at 48%, yet those looking for value might find the away win at 7.7 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet worth a flutter, as it represents a 109% edge according to the value ratings.
Middlesbrough's recent streak suggests resilience, but the game’s most likely scorelines reflect a closer contest than the odds imply, with a 13% chance of a 1-1 draw leading predictions. The model’s expected goals tally, with Middlesbrough at 1.45 and Lincoln City at 1.13, underscores the potential for a tightly contested match. Lincoln City, while not enjoying the same unbeaten run, are far from pushovers, sitting at a 27% chance of winning, indicating they could very well disrupt Middlesbrough's momentum.
Lincoln City might fancy their chances in a game that could be dictated by small margins. A dampened pitch from recent rains could suppress goal-scoring opportunities, which the model has already taken into account with its numbers. The over/under 2.5 goals market is finely balanced at 48%, suggesting a contest unlikely to veer into a goal fest, but one where both teams finding the net remains a coin flip proposition at 52%.
Lincoln City’s backers have a juicy proposition with that EV+ potential on an away win. Middlesbrough, despite their unbeaten form, will need to be wary of a Lincoln City side that could capitalize on any lapse in concentration. Ending on the sharpest angle: if you’re one to chase the value, Lincoln City at 7.7 is a tantalizing prospect that dares the adventurous punter. Yet, for those eyeing the most likely scenario, a 1-1 draw might just be where the smart money settles.
MiddlesbroughForm DWWDD
League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #1xP/match #3Points #5
Key players
- Delano BurgzorgFxG 0.25 · xT 0.09
- Hayden HackneyCAMxG 0.15 · xT 0.22
- Luke AylingCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.21
Lincoln CityFinal score
2 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Middlesbrough 48% · Draw 25% · Lincoln City 27%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - LincolnBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 27,23fair 15,24+79 %
MissMatchresultat - MiddlesbroughBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,75fair 9,32-49 %
MissMatch prediction: Middlesbrough – Lincoln City
Predicted score matrix
Lincoln City →
Middlesbrough →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.9%
0–18.2%
0–24.8%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–010.6%
1–112.8%
1–27.0%
1–32.6%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–08.0%
2–19.0%
2–25.1%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–03.9%
3–14.4%
3–22.5%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.9%
4+–12.2%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.2-08%
Expected goals
1,45–1,13
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@2.16EV+9%
Over 2,548%
@1.74
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Middlesbrough to win48%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Morgan Reece Whittaker to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Morgan Reece Whittaker to score25%
- Conor McGrandles to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Lincoln City27% probability@7.70NordicbetEV+109%reference odds
- 2 · Lincoln City27% probability@7.66PinnacleEV+108%reference odds
- 2 · Lincoln City27% probability@7.20BetsafeEV+96%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Middlesbrough | X | 2 · Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.45 | EV+ 8% 4.30 | EV+ 96% 7.20 |
| Betsson | 1.45 | EV+ 8% 4.30 | EV+ 96% 7.20 |
| Nordicbet | 1.43 | EV+ 8% 4.30 | EV+ 109% 7.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.43 | EV+ 19% 4.72 | EV+ 108% 7.66 |
Odds updated 15 Aug, 11:37
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Lincoln City win since 11 August — the odds have shortened from 9.27 to 7.66 (−17%).
1+7 %
73 %63 %
1.33 → 1.43
X-5 %
25 %15 %
4.98 → 4.72
2-17 %
17 %7 %
9.27 → 7.66
Over 2,5+5 %
61 %51 %
1.66 → 1.74
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 11/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough (72–47)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Middlesbrough
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Middlesbrough
| The goalkeepers | Sol Brynn (Middlesbrough) | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 104 | – |
| Save % | 69% | – |
| xG prevented | 40% | – |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | – |
Teams & more matches this round
- Wolverhampton – Blackburn Rovers14 August 2026 21:00 CEST
- Portsmouth – Queens Park Rangers15 August 2026
- Bolton Wanderers – Preston North End15 August 2026 13:30 CEST
- Charlton Athletic – Derby County15 August 2026 16:00 CEST
- Norwich City – West Bromwich Albion15 August 2026 16:00 CEST
- Bristol City – Millwall15 August 2026 16:00 CEST
- Stoke City – Swansea City15 August 2026 16:00 CEST
- Sheffield United – Birmingham City15 August 2026 18:30 CEST
- Watford – Southampton16 August 2026 14:30 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Middlesbrough vs Lincoln City according to our model?
The model gives Middlesbrough a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Middlesbrough 48%, draw 25%, Lincoln City 27%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Få ett 250 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4!
250 kr gratisspel plus freespins
Hämta bonus
Välkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.
100 kr gratisspel plus freespins
Hämta bonus
Hämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!
100 kr gratisspel plus freespins
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.