Derby County vs Cardiff City: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

EFL Championship22 August 2026 16:00 CESTPride Park, Derby14°0,1 mm12 km/h

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Derby CountyLow block & direct

Cardiff City

The model's lean: 2 · Cardiff City (46%)

1 · Derby County 29%X 25%46% Cardiff City · 2

29%

25%

46%

Analysis: Derby County – Cardiff City

Anna Karlsson · 14 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Nine is the magic number for Derby County, having found the back of the net in each of their last nine league outings. Yet, those goals haven't necessarily translated into consistent triumphs, and they're up against a Cardiff City side that holds a slight edge in model probabilities. At 46%, Cardiff City is favored to clinch this, while Derby County sits at 29% — a gap that hints at a visiting side potentially carrying some betting value, though not without its caveats.

Cardiff City have the wind in their sails, quite literally, and perhaps figuratively, as they travel to face Derby County. The expected goals tally of 1.54 for Cardiff City against Derby County's 1.28 suggests a marginal superiority in creating chances, even if the head-to-head record since 2023 is an even split across a small sample size. The sound of raindrops and gusty winds might dampen the goal tally slightly, but with a 53% probability for over 2.5 goals, the bookmakers seem to think otherwise.

Derby County's resilience in front of goal will be tested by a Cardiff defense that isn't impervious but can be sturdy. With both teams to score sitting at 57%, expect some goalmouth action. The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-2 offer a glimpse into what could unfold, reinforcing the narrative of a potentially tight affair.

Cardiff City's slight favoritism at bookmakers such as Bet365, offering odds of 2.2 for an away win, could be an intriguing prospect for those seeking value. They're the side with momentum and statistical backing, despite Derby County’s consistent scoring streak. While 1-1 comes off as the most probable scoreline at 12%, the lean towards a 1-2 Cardiff City victory at 9% shouldn't be ignored.

In a clash poised on a knife-edge, Cardiff City seems the shrewder bet, with the elements perhaps playing a part. The sharpest angle here leans towards the visitors riding out a narrow win, striking the balance between probability and value.

Derby County

Form LWLWL

League ranking xG #19xGA #11xT #18xP/match #6Points #8

Key players

Carlton MorrisFxG 0.41 · xT 0.06
Patrick K. AgyemangFxG 0.28 · xT 0.03
Callum ElderLWxG 0.01 · xT 0.17

Cardiff City

Form LLDDL

Key players

Yousef SalechFxG 0.57 · xT 0.01
Callum RobinsonFxG 0.25 · xT 0.05
Perry NgRBxG 0.10 · xT 0.14

Match prediction: Derby County – Cardiff City

Predicted score matrix

Cardiff City →

Derby County →

0–06.3%

0–18.9%

0–27.1%

0–33.6%

0–4+2.0%

1–07.3%

1–112.1%

1–29.1%

1–34.6%

1–4+2.5%

2–04.9%

2–17.5%

2–25.8%

2–33.0%

2–4+1.6%

3–02.1%

3–13.2%

3–22.5%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.7%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.3%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-19%
4.2-18%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,28–1,54

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@1.85

Over 2,553%

@2.00EV+7%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Cardiff City to win46%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Cardiff City to win46%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Yousef Salech to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Yousef Salech to score22%
Lewis Travis to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Cardiff City46% probability@4.50Bet365EV+107%
2 · Cardiff City46% probability@3.90BetsafeEV+79%
2 · Cardiff City46% probability@3.90BetssonEV+79%

Bookmaker	1 · Derby County	X	2 · Cardiff City
Bet365	1.67	3.70	EV+ 107% 4.50
Betsafe	1.92	3.45	EV+ 79% 3.90
Betsson	1.92	3.45	EV+ 79% 3.90
Nordicbet	1.92	3.45	EV+ 79% 3.90

Odds updated 16 Aug, 14:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Cardiff City win since 15 August — the odds have shortened from 4.85 to 3.90 (−20%).

1+12 %

57 %47 %

1.72 → 1.92

X-4 %

31 %21 %

3.60 → 3.45

2-20 %

27 %17 %

4.85 → 3.90

Over 2,5-2 %

53 %43 %

1.99 → 1.96

Betsson · 10 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 16/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Derby County 1Draw 0Cardiff City 1

Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

Key facts

Derby County have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Derby County

Cardiff City

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Derby County (67–59)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Derby County

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Derby County

The goalkeepers	Jacob Widell Zetterstrom (Derby County)	Cardiff City
Saves	105	–
Save %	72%	–
xG prevented	48%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Derby County vs Cardiff City according to our model?

The model gives Cardiff City a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Derby County 29%, draw 25%, Cardiff City 46%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.