Lincoln City vs Portsmouth: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

EFL Championship22 August 2026 13:30 CESTSincil Bank, Lincoln14°1,4 mm10 km/h

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Lincoln City

PortsmouthPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Lincoln City (61%)

1 · Lincoln City 61%X 23%16% Portsmouth · 2

61%

23%

16%

Analysis: Lincoln City – Portsmouth

Sofia Andersson · 14 August 2026 · How the predictions work

A 61% probability for Lincoln City to win sets a compelling stage as Portsmouth visit in this Championship clash. This clash is not just about odds but a deeper analysis of form and expected outcomes. With an expected goals tally of 1.84 for Lincoln City compared to Portsmouth's 0.90, the numbers strongly favor the hosts. Despite the close probability for over 2.5 goals at 52%, the model's predicted scorelines, notably 1-0 and 2-0, suggest a tighter affair.

Portsmouth are riding high on a streak of scoring in nine consecutive league matches. This run adds a layer of intrigue, especially since both teams to score is pegged at 50%. However, their 16% chance of victory and the expected goals don't paint a rosy picture for them. Portsmouth's offensive form might challenge Lincoln City's defense, but breaking through for more than a solitary goal seems unlikely given Lincoln's higher expected tally.

Lincoln City, driven by a solid win probability, come into this encounter with confidence. Their defensive record and ability to capitalize on opportunities could stifle a Portsmouth side that, despite its scoring streak, looks outgunned on paper. The potential for a 1-0 or 2-0 outcome feels fitting, especially with Lincoln's superior expected goals and Portsmouth's challenge of translating their scoring streak into tangible results away from home.

Weather conditions aren't in play here, so focus remains squarely on the teams' metrics. While the over 2.5 goals marginally edges above a coin toss, the lean towards a slimmer scoreline is compelling. For those eyeing value, consider Lincoln City to win at 5/4 with Betfair. The odds align well against the backdrop of Portsmouth's daunting task of breaching Lincoln's defenses more than once, making a Lincoln victory the sharp angle to round off this analysis.

Lincoln City

Portsmouth

Form WWLWD

League ranking xG #11xGA #7xT #22xP/match #11Points #18

Key players

Colby BishopFxG 0.29 · xT 0.00
Andre DozzellCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
Marlon PackCDMxG 0.12 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Lincoln City – Portsmouth

Predicted score matrix

Portsmouth →

Lincoln City →

0–06.8%

0–15.5%

0–22.6%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.2%

1–011.6%

1–111.0%

1–24.8%

1–31.4%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.9%

2–19.8%

2–24.4%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.4%

3–06.7%

3–16.0%

3–22.7%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.2%

4+–04.7%

4+–14.2%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-012%
2.1-111%
3.2-011%
4.2-110%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,84–0,90

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,548%

@2.00

Over 2,552%

@1.96EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Lincoln City to win61%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Lincoln City to win61%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Frederick Charles Draper to score34%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Frederick Charles Draper to score34%
Luke Gareth Le Roux to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Lincoln City61% probability@2.45BetsafeEV+50%
1 · Lincoln City61% probability@2.45BetssonEV+50%
1 · Lincoln City61% probability@2.45NordicbetEV+50%

Bookmaker	1 · Lincoln City	X	2 · Portsmouth
Betsafe	EV+ 50% 2.45	3.35	2.80
Betsson	EV+ 50% 2.45	3.35	2.80
Nordicbet	EV+ 50% 2.45	3.35	2.80
Paddy Power	EV+ 40% 2.30	3.30	2.75

Odds updated 16 Aug, 22:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Lincoln City win since 15 August — the odds have shortened from 2.80 to 2.45 (−12%).

1-12 %

43 %33 %

2.80 → 2.45

X-3 %

33 %23 %

3.45 → 3.35

2+17 %

40 %30 %

2.40 → 2.80

Over 2,5+10 %

56 %46 %

1.78 → 1.96

Betsson · 15 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 16/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Portsmouth have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Portsmouth

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Portsmouth (49–64)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Portsmouth

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Portsmouth

The goalkeepers	Lincoln City	Nicolas Schmid (Portsmouth)
Saves	–	81
Save %	–	65%
xG prevented	–	49%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Lincoln City vs Portsmouth according to our model?

The model gives Lincoln City a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lincoln City 61%, draw 23%, Portsmouth 16%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.