EFL ChampionshipSt Mary's Stadium, Southampton17°15 km/h

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    SouthamptonSouthamptonPossession & high press
    vs
    Stoke CityStoke CityLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Southampton (67%)
    Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

    Southampton – Stoke City · EFL Championship

    1 · Southampton 67%X 19%14% Stoke City · 2

    Analysis: Southampton – Stoke City

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Five straight losses paint a bleak picture for Stoke City as they head to face a Southampton side brimming with confidence. Southampton, with a 67% win probability, are clear favourites, and it's not hard to see why. Their home record this season is formidable, winning 67% of their matches, and they boast superior expected goals (xG) numbers, with 1.93 compared to Stoke City's meagre 0.86. A likely 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline reflects Southampton's potential dominance, particularly given Stoke City's vulnerability on the road.

    Stoke City, known for their low defensive block and direct style, might struggle to contain Southampton's possession-heavy, high-press approach. Despite having an edge in expected points (xPoints) at 1.2 compared to Southampton's 0.6, Stoke's defensive fragility is exposed by their xG against per match at 0.84. This is compounded by Southampton's impressive ability to create scoring opportunities immediately after regaining possession, with an xG of 0.37 within eight seconds of winning the ball—a stark contrast to Stoke's zero in this metric.

    Southampton's attacking momentum and the Saints' historical home performance suggest a lean towards the over 2.5 goals, though it's a marginal call at 53%. The weather isn't a factor here, so we can expect the tactical dynamics to play out as predicted. With both teams being evenly poised on the both-teams-to-score metric at 50%, the game's tempo might hinge on which team capitalizes on early chances.

    For those with a betting inclination, the most compelling value lies in backing Southampton at odds 1.7 with Bet365, reflecting a 14% edge over the model's rating. Both the historical trend and the current form signal a Southampton win, making this a savvy play for those looking to capitalize on the current form and odds value.

    SouthamptonSouthampton
    Form LWDWW
    League ranking xG #12xGA #14xT #6xP/match #17Points #13
    Key players
    • Ryan Phelim ManningLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.47
    • Taylor Jay Harwood-BellisCBxG 0.16 · xT 0.17
    • Flynn DownesCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.03
    Stoke CityStoke City
    Form LLLLL
    League ranking xG #18xGA #5xT #3xP/match #13Points #17
    Key players
    • Benjamin Sorba William ThomasLWxG 0.22 · xT 0.67
    • Eric Junior BocatLWBxG 0.21 · xT 0.14
    • Million ManhoefRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.33

    Match prediction: Southampton – Stoke City

    Predicted score matrix

    Stoke City →
    Southampton →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.4%
    0–15.0%
    0–22.3%
    0–30.7%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–011.5%
    1–110.5%
    1–24.4%
    1–31.3%
    1–4+0.3%
    2
    2–011.4%
    2–19.8%
    2–24.3%
    2–31.2%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–07.3%
    3–16.3%
    3–22.7%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–05.5%
    4+–14.8%
    4+–22.1%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-011%
    2. 2.2-011%
    3. 3.1-110%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.3-07%
    Expected goals
    1,93–0,86
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,547%
    @2.30EV+8%
    Over 2,553%
    @1.70

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Southampton to win67%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    51%

    Fair odds

    1.98

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Southampton to win67%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Adam Armstrong to score35%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Adam Armstrong to score35%
    • Svante Ulf Ingel Ingelsson to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Southampton67% probability@1.70Bet365EV+14%reference odds
    • Both teams to score: No50% probability@2.20Bet365EV+10%reference odds
    • 1 · Southampton67% probability@1.65BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · SouthamptonX2 · Stoke City
    Bet365
    EV+ 14%
    1.70    		3.904.10
    Betsafe
    EV+ 10%
    1.65    		4.054.90
    Betsson
    EV+ 10%
    1.65    		4.054.90
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 10%
    1.65    		4.054.90

    Odds updated 18 Aug, 11:36

    Odds movement

    1-3 %
    59 %54 %

    1.70 → 1.65

    X0 %
    26 %21 %

    4.05 → 4.05

    2+11 %
    23 %18 %

    4.40 → 4.90

    Over 2,5+5 %
    60 %55 %

    1.62 → 1.70

    Betsson · 9 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Stoke City have lost 5 in a row.
    • Southampton FC win 67% of their home matches all-time (24 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Stoke City
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Stoke City (1–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Stoke City
    Luke Graham: 30 passningar, xT -0.01GrahamEric Junior Bocat: 28 passningar, xT 0.05BocatViktor Johansson: 24 passningar, xT 0.06JohanssonMaksym Taloverov: 24 passningar, xT 0.07TaloverovBenjamin Sorba William Thomas: 19 passningar, xT 0.52ThomasBen Wilmot: 18 passningar, xT 0.01WilmotEthan Stuart William Galbraith: 13 passningar, xT 0.08GalbraithEl Hadji Djibril Soumaré: 12 passningar, xT 0.09SoumaréMillion Manhoef: 10 passningar, xT 0.32ManhoefSvante Ulf Ingel Ingelsson: 10 passningar, xT 0.07IngelssonBosun Lawal: 7 passningar, xT 0.01Lawal
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Stoke City
    Luke Graham: 30 passningar, xT -0.01GrahamEric Junior Bocat: 28 passningar, xT 0.05BocatViktor Johansson: 24 passningar, xT 0.06JohanssonMaksym Taloverov: 24 passningar, xT 0.07TaloverovBenjamin Sorba William Thomas: 19 passningar, xT 0.52ThomasBen Wilmot: 18 passningar, xT 0.01WilmotEthan Stuart William Galbraith: 13 passningar, xT 0.08GalbraithEl Hadji Djibril Soumaré: 12 passningar, xT 0.09SoumaréMillion Manhoef: 10 passningar, xT 0.32ManhoefSvante Ulf Ingel Ingelsson: 10 passningar, xT 0.07IngelssonBosun Lawal: 7 passningar, xT 0.01Lawal

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSouthamptonStoke City
    Points00
    xPoints0.61.2
    xG per match1.20.53
    xGA per match1.40.84
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.370
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.750.04
    Playing styleSouthamptonStoke City
    Build-up efficiency0.30.29
    Field tilt0.780.26
    xT per match1.21.5
    xTA per match0.280.68
    Won balls, offensive half2716
    Pressing intensity0.220.25
    Pressing efficiency0.320.34
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.280.29
    Entries into the box per match1415
    Entries into the box against714
    Pass completion %0.820.63
    Pass completion % under pressure0.820.55
    Passes per match457207
    Passes against per match199324
    Switches of play per match31.119.8
    Long balls per match4231
    Set piecesSouthamptonStoke City
    xG from free kicks0.280.14
    Corners per match7.84
    Corners against per match3.95
    xG per corner00
    xGA per corner against00.02
    First touch, offensive corners %00
    First touch, defensive corners %0.250.6
    OtherSouthamptonStoke City
    Throw-in control0.710.77
    The goalkeepersSouthamptonViktor Johansson (Stoke City)
    Saves–1
    Save %–33%
    xG prevented–16%
    Claims–0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Southampton vs Stoke City according to our model?

    The model gives Southampton a 67% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Southampton 67%, draw 19%, Stoke City 14%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.