Mansfield Town vs Doncaster Rovers: Prediction & Odds (15 Aug 2026)

EFL League One15 August 2026 16:00 CESTOne Call Stadium, Mansfield17°14 km/h

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Mansfield TownPossession control

Doncaster RoversPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Mansfield Town (38%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.93 (+9 %)

1 · Mansfield Town 38%X 30%32% Doncaster Rovers · 2

38%

30%

32%

Analysis: Mansfield Town – Doncaster Rovers

Marcus Johansson · 11 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Mansfield Town finds themselves in a promising position, unbeaten in their last six league matches, and looking to extend that streak against Doncaster Rovers. With a model probability giving them a 38% chance of winning compared to Doncaster's 32%, there's a clear nod towards the home side, albeit a cautious one. The expected goals metrics suggest a tight encounter, with Mansfield Town at 1.30 and Doncaster Rovers slightly behind at 1.12.

Yet, the margins are slim, and the head-to-head record since 2023 is a small sample size of just two matches, with each team taking one win apiece. This almost negligible sample does little to overshadow the current form and underlying statistics, which slightly favor Mansfield Town. Still, the betting odds present an intriguing twist.

Doncaster Rovers, despite their underdog status, offer some tempting value. Pinnacle lists them at 3.35 with an 8% edge, and Betsafe isn't far behind at 3.25 with a 5% edge. For the shrewd bettor, these odds don't just whisper value—they practically shout it, especially considering their possession-control style that mirrors Mansfield's, hinting at a possible stalemate in midfield.

On the goals front, the forecast isn't particularly optimistic for a high-scoring affair. The model suggests a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals, yet the conditions hint towards a more reserved scoreline. With the most likely outcomes being 1-1 (13%) or a narrow 1-0 victory for either side, the under 2.5 goals market at odds of 1.9 with Pinnacle carries a 7% edge, a sensible choice for those cautious of a goal fest.

As the final whistle approaches, the sharpest betting angle leans towards the understated. With value seen in Doncaster's odds and the under 2.5 goals, savvy punters might find their best return in backing a low-scoring, closely contested match.

Mansfield Town

Form DWWDW

League ranking xG #11xGA #14xT #16xP/match #6Points #10

Key players

Lucas AkinsRWxG 0.33 · xT 0.04
Rhys OatesFxG 0.30 · xT 0.17
Will EvansFxG 0.31 · xT 0.06

Doncaster Rovers

Form WWLDW

League ranking xG #8xGA #12xT #7xP/match #10Points #13

Key players

Luke James MolyneuxRWxG 0.30 · xT 0.15
Billy Louis SharpFxG 0.27 · xT 0.03
Owen John Edward BaileyCMxG 0.33 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Mansfield Town – Doncaster Rovers

Predicted score matrix

Doncaster Rovers →

Mansfield Town →

0–09.3%

0–19.6%

0–25.6%

0–32.1%

0–4+0.8%

1–011.1%

1–113.3%

1–27.3%

1–32.7%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.5%

2–18.4%

2–24.7%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–03.2%

3–13.6%

3–22.0%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.4%

4+–11.6%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-110%
4.0-09%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,30–1,12

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

@1.93EV+4%

Over 2,544%

@1.88

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Mansfield Town or draw (1X)68%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Mansfield Town or draw (1X)68%
Under 2.5 goals56%
Tyler D'Whyte Roberts to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Tyler D'Whyte Roberts to score30%
Neill Byrne to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.556% probability@1.93PinnacleEV+9%
2 · Doncaster Rovers32% probability@3.34PinnacleEV+8%
2 · Doncaster Rovers32% probability@3.25BetsafeEV+5%

Bookmaker	1 · Mansfield Town	X	2 · Doncaster Rovers
Betsafe	2.08	EV+ 0% 3.40	EV+ 5% 3.25
Betsson	2.08	EV+ 0% 3.40	EV+ 5% 3.25
Nordicbet	2.08	EV+ 0% 3.40	EV+ 5% 3.25
Pinnacle	2.10	EV+ 3% 3.50	EV+ 8% 3.34

Odds updated 12 Aug, 17:36

Odds movement

10 %

47 %42 %

2.11 → 2.10

X+1 %

30 %25 %

3.46 → 3.50

20 %

31 %26 %

3.35 → 3.34

Over 2,5-2 %

53 %48 %

1.90 → 1.87

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 11/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Mansfield Town 1Draw 0Doncaster Rovers 1

Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on League One data since 2023.

Key facts

Mansfield Town are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Mansfield Town

Doncaster Rovers

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Mansfield Town (62–50)

Doncaster Rovers (50–69)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Mansfield Town

Doncaster Rovers

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Mansfield Town

Doncaster Rovers

The teams in numbers

Performance	Mansfield Town	Doncaster Rovers
Points	65	60
xPoints	70.2	66.4
xG per match	1.3	1.5
xGA per match	1.3	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.2

Playing style	Mansfield Town	Doncaster Rovers
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.33
Field tilt	0.43	0.5
xT per match	0.8	0.96
xTA per match	0.95	0.85
Won balls, offensive half	24	26
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.36
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.32	0.39
Entries into the box per match	11	11
Entries into the box against	13	11
Pass completion %	0.67	0.67
Pass completion % under pressure	0.63	0.64
Passes per match	277	276
Passes against per match	347	270
Switches of play per match	21.8	21.8
Long balls per match	30	32

Set pieces	Mansfield Town	Doncaster Rovers
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.18
Corners per match	4.7	4.3
Corners against per match	4.8	5.5
xG per corner	0.06	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.62

Other	Mansfield Town	Doncaster Rovers
Throw-in control	0.66	0.71

The goalkeepers	Liam Roberts (Mansfield Town)	Thimothée Jacques Orcel Lo-Tutala (Doncaster Rovers)
Saves	116	82
Save %	71%	63%
xG prevented	49%	50%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Mansfield Town vs Doncaster Rovers according to our model?

The model gives Mansfield Town a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mansfield Town 38%, draw 30%, Doncaster Rovers 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.