EFL League OneWeston Homes Stadium, Peterborough15°11 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Peterborough UnitedPeterborough UnitedCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    Mansfield TownMansfield TownPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Mansfield Town (45%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.22 (+4 %)

    Peterborough United – Mansfield Town · EFL League One

    1 · Peterborough United 29%X 26%45% Mansfield Town · 2

    Analysis: Peterborough United – Mansfield Town

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Mansfield Town's impressive unbeaten streak stands at seven matches, and they're looking poised to extend it against Peterborough United this weekend. The numbers speak volumes: Mansfield Town's probability of winning is estimated at a commanding 45%, which is significant for an away team. Peterborough United, on the other hand, have a mere 29% chance of victory.

    Peterborough United's reliance on counter-attacks and crosses might struggle against Mansfield Town's high press and possession-based approach. The expected goals (xG) further highlight the disparities. Peterborough United's expected goals sit at 1.22, overshadowed by Mansfield Town's 1.59. Defensively, Peterborough United's expected goals against (xGA) is also concerning at 1.5, significantly higher than Mansfield Town's 0.83.

    Mansfield Town's dominance is evident not just in recent form but also in key metrics from past encounters. Despite the head-to-head record being a modest sample of four matches, Mansfield Town have edged out Peterborough with two wins and a draw, leaving Peterborough with just a single victory. Mansfield also holds superior xPoints at 1.3 versus Peterborough's 0.8, an edge reflected in their more efficient offensive and defensive stats.

    The most probable scoreline, according to simulations, is a 1-1 draw at 12%, but the 1-2 and 0-1 results both sit at 9%, aligning with Mansfield's robust form and Peterborough's defensive vulnerabilities. Additionally, the likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored is 53%, suggesting a potential for goals but not overwhelmingly so — a nod to the tactical styles and current weather conditions that might dampen scoring opportunities.

    For those keen on a sharp betting angle, the away win for Mansfield Town offers value at odds of 2.32 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model's rating of a 45% probability, against the offered odds, presents a 4% edge. Given the weight of evidence leaning towards Mansfield, this is the bet that stands out as providing the clearest value.

    Peterborough UnitedPeterborough United
    Form DLDLL
    League ranking xG #22xGA #18xT #9xP/match #19Points #23
    Key players
    • Brandon Singh KhelaFxG 0.09 · xT 0.08
    • Harry Paul LeonardFxG 0.34 · xT 0.04
    • Archie CollinsCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.08
    Mansfield TownMansfield Town
    Form WWDWW
    League ranking xG #15xGA #5xT #5xP/match #13Points #7
    Key players
    • Lucas AkinsRWxG 0.33 · xT 0.04
    • Rhys OatesFxG 0.30 · xT 0.17
    • Will EvansFxG 0.31 · xT 0.06

    Match prediction: Peterborough United – Mansfield Town

    Predicted score matrix

    Mansfield Town →
    Peterborough United →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.4%
    0–19.3%
    0–27.6%
    0–34.0%
    0–4+2.3%
    1
    1–07.0%
    1–112.0%
    1–29.3%
    1–34.9%
    1–4+2.8%
    2
    2–04.5%
    2–17.1%
    2–25.7%
    2–33.0%
    2–4+1.7%
    3
    3–01.8%
    3–12.9%
    3–22.3%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.7%
    4+
    4+–00.7%
    4+–11.2%
    4+–20.9%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.0-28%
    5. 5.2-17%
    Expected goals
    1,22–1,59
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,547%
    @2.22EV+4%
    Over 2,553%
    @1.62

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Mansfield Town or draw (X2)71%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    55%

    Fair odds

    1.81

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Mansfield Town or draw (X2)71%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Rhys Derek Oates to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Rhys Derek Oates to score28%
    • Samuel Reed to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.547% probability@2.22BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
    • Under 2.547% probability@2.22BetssonEV+4%reference odds
    • Under 2.547% probability@2.22NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Peterborough UnitedX2 · Mansfield Town
    Betsafe2.853.45
    EV+ 1%
    2.25
    Betsson2.853.45
    EV+ 1%
    2.25
    Nordicbet2.853.45
    EV+ 1%
    2.25

    Odds updated 18 Aug, 10:36

    Odds movement

    1+5 %
    36 %31 %

    2.72 → 2.85

    X0 %
    29 %24 %

    3.45 → 3.45

    2-4 %
    43 %38 %

    2.35 → 2.25

    Over 2,50 %
    60 %55 %

    1.62 → 1.62

    Betsson · 6 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Peterborough United 1Draw 1Mansfield Town 2
    Goals: 4–8 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on League One data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Mansfield Town are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Peterborough United
    Mansfield Town
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Peterborough United (0–2)
    Mansfield Town (2–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Peterborough United
    Carl Robert Johnston: 45 passningar, xT 0.02JohnstonJames Daniel Dornelly: 42 passningar, xT 0.06DornellyHarley Mills: 39 passningar, xT 0.1MillsAlexander Michael Bass: 33 passningar, xT 0.08BassDavid Chukwudubem Okagbue: 22 passningar, xT 0OkagbueThomas James O'Connor: 21 passningar, xT 0.02O'ConnorLiam Anthony Kelly: 17 passningar, xT -0.01KellyBrandon Singh Khela: 14 passningar, xT -0.03KhelaHarry Paul Leonard: 13 passningar, xT 0.03LeonardHarrison Jones: 13 passningar, xT 0.13JonesEthan Williams: 13 passningar, xT 0.09Williams
    Mansfield Town
    Adedeji Oshilaja: 52 passningar, xT 0.18OshilajaLiam Francis Thompson: 42 passningar, xT 0.12ThompsonFrazer Blake Tracy: 36 passningar, xT 0.01TracySamuel Reed: 36 passningar, xT 0.04ReedStephen Mclaughlin: 35 passningar, xT 0.38MclaughlinRyan Joseph Sweeney: 33 passningar, xT 0.15SweeneyLucas Akins: 31 passningar, xT 0.01AkinsJon Russell: 25 passningar, xT 0.03RussellMichael John Smith: 24 passningar, xT -0.04SmithLiam Roberts: 19 passningar, xT 0.03RobertsRegan Hendry: 12 passningar, xT 0.01Hendry
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Peterborough United
    Carl Robert Johnston: 45 passningar, xT 0.02JohnstonJames Daniel Dornelly: 42 passningar, xT 0.06DornellyHarley Mills: 39 passningar, xT 0.1MillsAlexander Michael Bass: 33 passningar, xT 0.08BassDavid Chukwudubem Okagbue: 22 passningar, xT 0OkagbueThomas James O'Connor: 21 passningar, xT 0.02O'ConnorLiam Anthony Kelly: 17 passningar, xT -0.01KellyBrandon Singh Khela: 14 passningar, xT -0.03KhelaHarry Paul Leonard: 13 passningar, xT 0.03LeonardHarrison Jones: 13 passningar, xT 0.13JonesEthan Williams: 13 passningar, xT 0.09Williams
    Mansfield Town
    Adedeji Oshilaja: 52 passningar, xT 0.18OshilajaLiam Francis Thompson: 42 passningar, xT 0.12ThompsonFrazer Blake Tracy: 36 passningar, xT 0.01TracySamuel Reed: 36 passningar, xT 0.04ReedStephen Mclaughlin: 35 passningar, xT 0.38MclaughlinRyan Joseph Sweeney: 33 passningar, xT 0.15SweeneyLucas Akins: 31 passningar, xT 0.01AkinsJon Russell: 25 passningar, xT 0.03RussellMichael John Smith: 24 passningar, xT -0.04SmithLiam Roberts: 19 passningar, xT 0.03RobertsRegan Hendry: 12 passningar, xT 0.01Hendry

    The teams in numbers

    PerformancePeterborough UnitedMansfield Town
    Points03
    xPoints0.81.3
    xG per match0.661.2
    xGA per match1.50.83
    xG within 8s of winning the ball00.18
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.120.09
    Playing stylePeterborough UnitedMansfield Town
    Build-up efficiency0.290.31
    Field tilt0.290.7
    xT per match1.21.3
    xTA per match2.20.45
    Won balls, offensive half1434
    Pressing intensity0.280.21
    Pressing efficiency0.40.32
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.320.3
    Entries into the box per match1022
    Entries into the box against203
    Pass completion %0.690.71
    Pass completion % under pressure0.670.7
    Passes per match318386
    Passes against per match326327
    Switches of play per match14.331.3
    Long balls per match2950
    Set piecesPeterborough UnitedMansfield Town
    xG from free kicks00.05
    Corners per match3.17.3
    Corners against per match7.21
    xG per corner00.01
    xGA per corner against0.010
    First touch, offensive corners %10.29
    First touch, defensive corners %0.431
    OtherPeterborough UnitedMansfield Town
    Throw-in control0.730.69
    The goalkeepersAlexander Michael Bass (Peterborough United)Liam Roberts (Mansfield Town)
    Saves33
    Save %60%75%
    xG prevented51%52%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Peterborough United vs Mansfield Town according to our model?

    The model gives Mansfield Town a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Peterborough United 29%, draw 26%, Mansfield Town 45%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    Bradford CityBradford City
    2–0
    Peterborough UnitedPeterborough United
    1 57%X 23%2 19%
    The model called the outcome
    Plymouth ArgylePlymouth Argyle
    1–3
    Stockport CountyStockport County
    1 42%X 27%2 30%
    The model missed the outcome
    Huddersfield TownHuddersfield Town
    3–0
    WimbledonWimbledon
    1 56%X 23%2 21%
    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.