Stockport County – Blackpool · EFL League One

Four head-to-head victories for Stockport County since 2023 certainly catch the eye, but with only four matches as a sample, it's a thin reed to lean on compared to the broader form and underlying performance metrics. Stockport County boast a robust home record, winning 62% of their fixtures at Edgeley Park, yet the weather conditions — rain and strong winds — might play a dampening role, literally, in the goal tally.

Stockport County's slight edge in expected goals (1.72 to Blackpool's 1.15) aligns with the model's 51% probability backing them for the win. However, Blackpool's unbeaten run over their last five league matches hints at a team that's tough to break down, even if they sit lower in current standings. The clash of styles, both sides preferring counter-attacks and crosses, suggests a tactical standoff rather than a free-flowing goal fest. Yet, the over 2.5 goals probability still stands at 55%, with both teams to score at 56%.

Blackpool may have a mere 23% probability of victory according to the model, but the betting market throws up an intriguing opportunity. With odds of 5.4 available at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there's a discernible value (EV+) for those willing to back an upset. The 22% edge provided by these odds against the model's 23% rating makes this a compelling, albeit risky, play for the punters.

Stockport's likely to edge it 2-1 based on the probabilities, but given the conditions and Blackpool's stubborn recent form, a 1-1 draw also looms large. Ultimately, the most inviting betting angle lies in Blackpool's potential to defy expectations at juicy odds, a speculative punt for those with an appetite for risk.