Wigan Athletic vs Leyton Orient: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

EFL League One22 August 2026 16:00 CESTBrick Community Stadium, Wigan15°13 km/h

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Wigan AthleticPossession control

Leyton OrientBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Wigan Athletic (37%)Best value by the model: 2 · Leyton Orient @ 3.15 (+1 %)

1 · Wigan Athletic 37%X 31%32% Leyton Orient · 2

37%

31%

32%

Analysis: Wigan Athletic – Leyton Orient

Oscar Nilsson · 17 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Three consecutive defeats hang over Wigan Athletic like a stubborn cloud, casting doubts on their momentum as they host Leyton Orient. Despite these losses, the model shows a slight lean towards Wigan with a 37% probability of victory, nudging just ahead of Leyton Orient's 32%. Yet, the most likely scoreline paints a different picture: a 1-1 draw at 14%, indicating a tightly contested affair might be on the cards.

Leyton Orient may have the upper hand in their recent head-to-head encounters — albeit from a small sample of just four games — with two wins and two draws. But it's the interplay between expected goals and style that truly spices up this clash. While Wigan's xG of 2.2 per match suggests offensive potency, their defensive frailties are glaring with an xGA of 2.4, significantly higher than Leyton Orient’s 1.8. Leyton Orient's balanced and physical approach could exploit these defensive lapses, particularly given their superior xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball — 0.3 to Wigan's paltry 0.06.

Wigan Athletic's possession-based style may struggle to break a resilient and counter-ready Leyton Orient, especially with the latter's xPoints averaging a decent 1.0 compared to Wigan's 0.6. The expected goals tally suggests a low-scoring affair, with only a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a moderate 47% probability for both teams finding the net. The weather could play a subtle role here, but the model already accounts for any dampening effects.

For those looking beyond mere probabilities, the real edge lies with Leyton Orient. With a value bet available at odds of 3.15 across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, savvy punters might find a smidgen of opportunity. It's a gamble, but given Wigan's slump and Orient's tactical edge, it's a calculated risk that might just pay off.

Wigan Athletic

Form WDLLL

League ranking xG #3xGA #24xT #2xP/match #22Points #18

Key players

Fraser MurrayRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.18
Dara James Morgan CostelloeFxG 0.33 · xT 0.03
Callum WrightLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.08

Leyton Orient

Form DLLDL

League ranking xG #21xGA #20xT #24xP/match #18Points #19

Key players

Armando DobraLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.02
Joseph Olugbenga OlowuCBxG 0.18 · xT 0.01
Idris El MizouniCAMxG 0.10 · xT -0.04

Match prediction: Wigan Athletic – Leyton Orient

Predicted score matrix

Leyton Orient →

Wigan Athletic →

0–010.2%

0–110.0%

0–25.5%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.6%

1–012.0%

1–113.5%

1–27.0%

1–32.5%

1–4+0.8%

2–07.8%

2–18.3%

2–24.4%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.5%

3–03.3%

3–13.5%

3–21.8%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.4%

4+–11.4%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-012%
3.0-010%
4.0-110%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,26–1,06

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

320%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,559%

@1.65

Over 2,541%

@2.12

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Wigan Athletic or draw (1X)69%
Under 3.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Wigan Athletic or draw (1X)69%
Under 2.5 goals59%
Christopher John Bernard Sze to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals41%
Christopher John Bernard Sze to score23%
Jensen Guy Weir to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Leyton Orient32% probability@3.15BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
2 · Leyton Orient32% probability@3.15BetssonEV+1%reference odds
2 · Leyton Orient32% probability@3.15NordicbetEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Wigan Athletic	X	2 · Leyton Orient
Betsafe	2.22	3.20	EV+ 1% 3.15
Betsson	2.22	3.20	EV+ 1% 3.15
Nordicbet	2.22	3.20	EV+ 1% 3.15

Odds updated 18 Aug, 07:36

Odds movement

1-4 %

43 %38 %

2.32 → 2.22

X+3 %

32 %27 %

3.10 → 3.20

2+3 %

33 %28 %

3.05 → 3.15

Over 2,50 %

47 %42 %

2.12 → 2.12

Betsson · 12 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Wigan Athletic 0Draw 2Leyton Orient 2

Goals: 0–4 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on League One data since 2023.

Key facts

Wigan Athletic have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Wigan Athletic

Leyton Orient

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Wigan Athletic (2–3)

Leyton Orient (1–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Wigan Athletic

Leyton Orient

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Wigan Athletic

Leyton Orient

The teams in numbers

Performance	Wigan Athletic	Leyton Orient
Points	0	0
xPoints	0.6	1
xG per match	2.2	0.81
xGA per match	2.4	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.06	0.3
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.07	0.36

Playing style	Wigan Athletic	Leyton Orient
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.3
Field tilt	0.68	0.49
xT per match	1.5	0.23
xTA per match	0.69	0.84
Won balls, offensive half	19	25
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.35	0.55
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.55
Entries into the box per match	18	8
Entries into the box against	10	11
Pass completion %	0.79	0.6
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.51
Passes per match	480	204
Passes against per match	196	182
Switches of play per match	12.4	19.1
Long balls per match	22	23

Set pieces	Wigan Athletic	Leyton Orient
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	5.2	4.8
Corners against per match	8.3	6.7
xG per corner	0.1	0
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.2	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.57

Other	Wigan Athletic	Leyton Orient
Throw-in control	0.94	0.66

The goalkeepers	Max Mcauley Power (Wigan Athletic)	Nathan Joseph Baxter (Leyton Orient)
Saves	2	3
Save %	100%	60%
xG prevented	100%	27%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Wigan Athletic vs Leyton Orient according to our model?

The model gives Wigan Athletic a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wigan Athletic 37%, draw 31%, Leyton Orient 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.