EFL League TwoMemorial Stadium, Bristol16°14 km/h

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    Bristol RoversBristol RoversLow block & direct
    vs
    Newport CountyNewport CountyLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Bristol Rovers (55%)Best value by the model: 2 · Newport County @ 4.90 (+7 %)

    Bristol Rovers – Newport County · EFL League Two

    1 · Bristol Rovers 55%X 23%22% Newport County · 2

    Analysis: Bristol Rovers – Newport County

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Bristol Rovers have been an offensive force, scoring in 10 consecutive league matches, and this consistency is a key factor in their 55% win probability against Newport County. Their expected goals (xG) of 1.67 to Newport’s 0.96 reinforces Bristol Rovers as the more threatening side up front. Yet, Newport is no pushover—marching into the match on a run of three straight wins. Despite these victories, the underlying metrics paint a complex picture: Newport edges out on points (3 vs. 0) and expected points (2.5 vs. 1.9), but Bristol Rovers maintain a superior xG per match average of 1.8 to Newport's 1.5.

    Newport County’s defensive resilience shines through with an expected goals against (xGA) of only 0.21 per match, considerably lower than Bristol’s 1.6. This suggests that while Bristol is more potent in attack, they might struggle to break down Newport’s robust defence. However, the small head-to-head sample since 2023 shows Bristol Rovers with two wins out of two, though this weighs less given its size.

    A 1-1 or 1-0 scoreline sits at 12% probability, yet the odds of a Bristol Rovers victory seem appealing. The match projects as a tight affair with the probability of over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 50%, suggesting a low-scoring game. Weather isn’t mentioned, so expect normal playing conditions to emphasise these numbers.

    If you're looking for value in the betting markets, Newport County at odds of 4.9 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet offers intrigue. The model sees a 22% chance, a 7% edge over the bookies' estimation. While Newport's recent form makes this bet enticing, the statistics lean towards a narrow Bristol Rovers victory, potentially 1-0.

    Bristol RoversBristol Rovers
    Form WWWDL
    League ranking xG #8xGA #14xT #9xP/match #9Points #15
    Key players
    • Fabrizio CavegnFxG 0.15 · xT 0.01
    • Ellis HarrisonFxG 0.43 · xT 0.04
    • Luke Gerald Michael ThomasFxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
    Newport CountyNewport County
    Form WLWWW
    League ranking xG #12xGA #1xT #8xP/match #1Points #1
    Key players
    • Sven Michael SpranglerCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
    • Samuel Charles BraybrookeCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.11
    • Nathaniel Opoku OnyinaFxG 0.28 · xT 0.04

    Match prediction: Bristol Rovers – Newport County

    Predicted score matrix

    Newport County →
    Bristol Rovers →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.5%
    0–16.6%
    0–23.3%
    0–31.1%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–011.7%
    1–111.9%
    1–25.6%
    1–31.8%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–010.0%
    2–19.7%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–05.6%
    3–15.4%
    3–22.6%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–03.4%
    4+–13.3%
    4+–21.6%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.2-010%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,67–0,96
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,551%
    @1.98EV+1%
    Over 2,549%
    @1.78

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Bristol Rovers to win55%
    • Under 3.5 goals73%

    Combined probability

    37%

    Fair odds

    2.71

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Bristol Rovers to win55%
    • Under 2.5 goals51%
    • Fabrizio Cavegn to score20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals49%
    • Fabrizio Cavegn to score20%
    • Lee Thomas Jenkins to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Newport County22% probability@4.90BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
    • 2 · Newport County22% probability@4.90BetssonEV+7%reference odds
    • 2 · Newport County22% probability@4.90NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Bristol RoversX2 · Newport County
    Betsafe1.653.60
    EV+ 7%
    4.90
    Betsson1.653.60
    EV+ 7%
    4.90
    Nordicbet1.653.60
    EV+ 7%
    4.90

    Odds updated 18 Aug, 14:36

    Odds movement

    1+2 %
    59 %54 %

    1.62 → 1.65

    X-6 %
    27 %22 %

    3.85 → 3.60

    20 %
    22 %17 %

    4.90 → 4.90

    Over 2,5+3 %
    55 %50 %

    1.72 → 1.78

    Betsson · 16 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Bristol Rovers 2Draw 0Newport County 0
    Goals: 6–2 (⌀ 4)

    Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Bristol Rovers have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
    • Newport County come into this round on 3 straight wins.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Bristol Rovers
    Newport County
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Bristol Rovers (2–3)
    Newport County (3–0)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Bristol Rovers
    Riley Harbottle: 21 passningar, xT 0.03HarbottleJack Sparkes: 19 passningar, xT 0.2SparkesClinton Lemere Mola: 18 passningar, xT -0.03MolaMacauley Anthony Southam-Hales: 18 passningar, xT 0.31Southam-HalesKeenan Gough: 16 passningar, xT 0.05GoughBrad Young: 16 passningar, xT 0.09YoungKofi Balmer: 14 passningar, xT 0.02BalmerTommy Leigh: 11 passningar, xT 0LeighShaqai Tyreece Steven Forde: 10 passningar, xT 0.06FordeRichard Smallwood: 9 passningar, xT 0SmallwoodFabrizio Cavegn: 6 passningar, xT 0.14Cavegn
    Newport County
    Thomas Alfred Davies: 22 passningar, xT 0.01DaviesCiaran Brennan: 19 passningar, xT 0.15BrennanHarrison Biggins: 18 passningar, xT 0.16BigginsCameron Pearce Norman: 16 passningar, xT 0.27NormanJordan Wright: 14 passningar, xT 0.05WrightKyle Milne Cameron: 14 passningar, xT 0.02CameronLee Thomas Jenkins: 11 passningar, xT 0JenkinsCameron Evans: 10 passningar, xT 0.02EvansYahaya Abdoul Bamba: 6 passningar, xT 0.34BambaShaquille Gwengwe: 4 passningar, xT 0.06GwengweAlfie Merritt: 4 passningar, xT -0.02Merritt
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Bristol Rovers
    Riley Harbottle: 21 passningar, xT 0.03HarbottleJack Sparkes: 19 passningar, xT 0.2SparkesClinton Lemere Mola: 18 passningar, xT -0.03MolaMacauley Anthony Southam-Hales: 18 passningar, xT 0.31Southam-HalesKeenan Gough: 16 passningar, xT 0.05GoughBrad Young: 16 passningar, xT 0.09YoungKofi Balmer: 14 passningar, xT 0.02BalmerTommy Leigh: 11 passningar, xT 0LeighShaqai Tyreece Steven Forde: 10 passningar, xT 0.06FordeRichard Smallwood: 9 passningar, xT 0SmallwoodFabrizio Cavegn: 6 passningar, xT 0.14Cavegn
    Newport County
    Thomas Alfred Davies: 22 passningar, xT 0.01DaviesCiaran Brennan: 19 passningar, xT 0.15BrennanHarrison Biggins: 18 passningar, xT 0.16BigginsCameron Pearce Norman: 16 passningar, xT 0.27NormanJordan Wright: 14 passningar, xT 0.05WrightKyle Milne Cameron: 14 passningar, xT 0.02CameronLee Thomas Jenkins: 11 passningar, xT 0JenkinsCameron Evans: 10 passningar, xT 0.02EvansYahaya Abdoul Bamba: 6 passningar, xT 0.34BambaShaquille Gwengwe: 4 passningar, xT 0.06GwengweAlfie Merritt: 4 passningar, xT -0.02Merritt

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceBristol RoversNewport County
    Points03
    xPoints1.92.5
    xG per match1.81.5
    xGA per match1.60.21
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.360
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.130
    Playing styleBristol RoversNewport County
    Build-up efficiency0.340.33
    Field tilt0.30.58
    xT per match1.11.1
    xTA per match1.40.43
    Won balls, offensive half2642
    Pressing intensity0.250.19
    Pressing efficiency0.240.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.160.22
    Entries into the box per match914
    Entries into the box against186
    Pass completion %0.620.55
    Pass completion % under pressure0.620.52
    Passes per match173144
    Passes against per match538418
    Switches of play per match14.615.4
    Long balls per match3429
    Set piecesBristol RoversNewport County
    xG from free kicks0.010.36
    Corners per match6.29.3
    Corners against per match7.36.2
    xG per corner00.07
    xGA per corner against0.010.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.170.33
    First touch, defensive corners %0.570.83
    OtherBristol RoversNewport County
    Throw-in control0.830.62
    The goalkeepersBrad Young (Bristol Rovers)Ciaran Brennan (Newport County)
    Saves21
    Save %40%100%
    xG prevented17%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Bristol Rovers vs Newport County according to our model?

    The model gives Bristol Rovers a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bristol Rovers 55%, draw 23%, Newport County 22%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.