Colchester United vs Oldham Athletic: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

EFL League Two22 August 2026 16:00 CESTColchester Community Stadium, Colchester15°14 km/h

Colchester UnitedCounter-attacks & crosses

Oldham AthleticLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Colchester United (47%)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Colchester United 47%X 27%26% Oldham Athletic · 2

47%

27%

26%

Analysis: Colchester United – Oldham Athletic

Sofia Andersson · 17 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The tension lies in stark contrast between the expected goals (xG) and the head-to-head outcomes since 2023. Colchester United have yet to secure a victory against Oldham Athletic, drawing one and losing one of their two encounters. Yet, the model tips the balance slightly in Colchester's favour with a 47% probability of winning the match, possibly due to their counter-attacking style paired against Oldham's low defensive setup. However, Oldham's tactical directness and defensive resilience may well counteract Colchester's ambitions.

Colchester United step onto the pitch with a statistical expectation of 1.40 goals, but their actual performance has been underwhelming, managing only 0.86 xG per match. In contrast, Oldham Athletic exceeds expectations, generating 1.7 xG per match while conceding just 0.66 xGA per match, a stark contrast to Colchester's 1.9 xGA. The weather, with 8.4 mm of rain expected, might dampen attacking efforts, potentially making the under 2.5 goals at 42% an appealing option.

Oldham Athletic may only have a 26% chance of victory according to the probabilities, yet their sharper form and higher xPoints suggest they can exploit Colchester's frailties. The most common scoreline predictions of 1-1 and 1-0 also reflect a cautious affair. The predicted likelihood of both teams scoring stands at 47%, reflecting a match that leans towards a low-scoring affair.

The standout betting angle here is the value on the under 0.5 goals market, offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet at odds of 12.0. The model rates this at 10%, presenting a 16% edge. In a match shaped by defensive setups and rainy conditions, the possibility of a goalless draw looms larger than usual, making this a bet worth considering for the savvy punter.

Colchester United

Form WLLWD

League ranking xG #19xGA #20xT #2xP/match #20Points #14

Key players

Rob HuntFxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
Jack PayneCAMxG 0.16 · xT 0.83
Ellis IandoloLWBxG 0.09 · xT 0.23

Oldham Athletic

Form LLLWW

League ranking xG #9xGA #4xT #21xP/match #2Points #5

Key players

Michael MellonFxG 0.45 · xT 0.07
Karl Mike Fondop-TalumFxG 0.35 · xT 0.05
Kane DrummondFxG 0.22 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Colchester United – Oldham Athletic

Predicted score matrix

Oldham Athletic →

Colchester United →

0–09.7%

0–18.7%

0–24.4%

0–31.5%

0–4+0.4%

1–012.6%

1–113.1%

1–26.2%

1–32.0%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.1%

2–18.9%

2–24.3%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–04.2%

3–14.1%

3–22.0%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–02.0%

4+–12.0%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-013%
3.0-010%
4.2-09%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,40–0,98

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.85EV+7%

Over 2,542%

@1.88

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Colchester United to win47%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Colchester United to win47%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Harry John Anderson to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Karl Mike Fondop-Talum to score24%
Kane Drummond to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Colchester United47% probability@2.42BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
1 · Colchester United47% probability@2.42BetssonEV+13%reference odds
1 · Colchester United47% probability@2.42NordicbetEV+13%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Colchester United	X	2 · Oldham Athletic
Betsafe	EV+ 13% 2.42	3.30	2.75
Betsson	EV+ 13% 2.42	3.30	2.75
Nordicbet	EV+ 13% 2.42	3.30	2.75

Odds updated 18 Aug, 06:36

Odds movement

1+3 %

42 %37 %

2.35 → 2.42

X-3 %

30 %25 %

3.40 → 3.30

20 %

36 %31 %

2.75 → 2.75

Over 2,50 %

52 %47 %

1.88 → 1.88

Betsson · 8 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Colchester United 0Draw 1Oldham Athletic 1

Goals: 2–4 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Colchester United

Oldham Athletic

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Colchester United (2–2)

Oldham Athletic (2–0)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Colchester United

Oldham Athletic

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Colchester United

Oldham Athletic

The teams in numbers

Performance	Colchester United	Oldham Athletic
Points	1	3
xPoints	0.6	2.5
xG per match	0.86	1.7
xGA per match	1.9	0.66
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0	1.3
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.82	0.1

Playing style	Colchester United	Oldham Athletic
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.37
Field tilt	0.39	0.39
xT per match	1.4	0.4
xTA per match	1.4	0.5
Won balls, offensive half	23	25
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.2
Pressing efficiency	0.5	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.52	0.24
Entries into the box per match	12	7
Entries into the box against	21	9
Pass completion %	0.62	0.66
Pass completion % under pressure	0.58	0.59
Passes per match	246	208
Passes against per match	225	324
Switches of play per match	20	16.8
Long balls per match	36	28

Set pieces	Colchester United	Oldham Athletic
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.15
Corners per match	4	1.1
Corners against per match	9	6.3
xG per corner	0	0
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0	0
First touch, defensive corners %	0.78	0.33

Other	Colchester United	Oldham Athletic
Throw-in control	0.65	0.75

The goalkeepers	Thimothée Jacques Orcel Lo-Tutala (Colchester United)	Mathew Anthony Hudson (Oldham Athletic)
Saves	8	2
Save %	80%	100%
xG prevented	44%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Colchester United vs Oldham Athletic according to our model?

The model gives Colchester United a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Colchester United 47%, draw 27%, Oldham Athletic 26%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.