01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Grimsby Town to win57%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
EFL League TwoBlundell Park, Cleethorpes19°17 km/h
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Grimsby TownPossession control1–0
Exeter CityThe model's lean: 1 · Grimsby Town (57%)
Grimsby Town – Exeter City · EFL League Two
1 · Grimsby Town 57%X 23%20% Exeter City · 2
57%
23%
20%
Analysis: Grimsby Town – Exeter City
Erik Lindberg · · How the predictions work
Grimsby Town's recent knack for finding the back of the net could very well tilt the scales as they welcome Exeter City in this League Two clash. A streak of scoring in 12 consecutive league games speaks volumes about their attacking prowess, and it aligns nicely with the model's expectation of 1.76 goals for the home side. Meanwhile, Exeter City, with a more modest expected goals tally of 1.02, may find themselves on the back foot at Blundell Park.
Grimsby Town's probability of victory sits at 57%, suggesting a significant edge over Exeter City's 20% chance. The model favours Grimsby Town, and it’s hard to argue against it given their scoring consistency and the likelihood of them netting at least once. With the most likely scorelines hovering around 1-1 and 1-0, both at 11%, there's an implied tilt towards a tightly contested encounter rather than a goal fest.
Exeter City must navigate a tricky path if they are to upset the hosts. While the small sample size of recent head-to-heads might suggest caution in reading too much into past meetings, current form and expected goals weigh heavily in Grimsby Town's favour. The draw at 23% seems plausible, especially if Exeter can stifle Grimsby's frontline, but the odds are not stacked kindly for them.
Grimsby Town start this match as clear favourites, and the numbers back a likely 1-0 or 2-1 win. The over 2.5 goals market is finely balanced at 52%, but the under could be appealing if Exeter's defence holds firm. For those hunting value, Bet365 offers 3.50 on Grimsby Town to win 1-0, a tempting proposition given the model’s lean and expected scorelines.
Grimsby TownForm WWDLD
League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #1xP/match #5Points #7
Key players
- Charles VernamLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.20
- Kieran GreenRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.20
- Jaze Kevin KabiaFxG 0.45 · xT 0.04
Exeter CityFinal score
1 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Grimsby Town 57% · Draw 23% · Exeter City 20%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - GrimsbyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,43fair 6,70-4 %
MissMatchresultat - ExeterBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 14,16fair 19,80-28 %
MissMatch prediction: Grimsby Town – Exeter City
Predicted score matrix
Exeter City →
Grimsby Town →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.6%
0–16.0%
0–23.2%
0–31.1%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–010.7%
1–111.5%
1–25.7%
1–31.9%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–09.6%
2–19.8%
2–25.0%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–05.6%
3–15.7%
3–22.9%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–03.7%
4+–13.7%
4+–21.9%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.2-010%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,76–1,02
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,548%
@1.94
Over 2,552%
@1.89
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 2 legs
Balanced
- Grimsby Town to win57%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
03 · 2 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Grimsby Town57% probability@1.85BetsafeEV+5%
- 1 · Grimsby Town57% probability@1.85BetssonEV+5%
- 1 · Grimsby Town57% probability@1.85NordicbetEV+5%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Grimsby Town | X | 2 · Exeter City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 5% 1.85 | 3.45 | 3.95 |
| Betsson | EV+ 5% 1.85 | 3.45 | 3.95 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 5% 1.85 | 3.45 | 3.95 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 5% 1.84 | 3.77 | 4.11 |
Odds updated 15 Aug, 10:36
Odds movement
1+6 %
55 %50 %
1.74 → 1.84
X-2 %
27 %22 %
3.84 → 3.77
2-4 %
25 %20 %
4.28 → 4.11
Over 2,5+2 %
53 %48 %
1.85 → 1.89
Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 11/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Grimsby Town have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Grimsby Town
Grimsby Town (77–54)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Grimsby Town
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Grimsby Town
| The goalkeepers | Jackson William Smith (Grimsby Town) | Exeter City |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 59 | – |
| Save % | 69% | – |
| xG prevented | 39% | – |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | – |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Grimsby Town vs Exeter City according to our model?
The model gives Grimsby Town a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Grimsby Town 57%, draw 23%, Exeter City 20%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.