Rochdale vs Crawley Town: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

EFL League Two22 August 2026 16:00 CESTSpotland, Rochdale12°11 km/h

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Rochdale

Crawley Town

The model's lean: 2 · Crawley Town (40%)Soft draw

1 · Rochdale 38%X 21%40% Crawley Town · 2

38%

21%

40%

Analysis: Rochdale – Crawley Town

Sofia Andersson · 14 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Rochdale find themselves in a precarious position, facing off against a Crawley Town side that's riding high on a wave of momentum with four straight victories. Crawley's ability to find the back of the net in ten consecutive league matches should worry Rochdale's defence. The model slightly favours Crawley Town at 40% to Rochdale's 38%, hinting at a competitive clash with a slight edge for the visitors.

Rochdale, however, cannot be written off easily. With expected goals narrowly split at Rochdale 1.53 and Crawley Town 1.55, it's clear that this isn't just a one-sided affair. But Crawley's recent form cannot be overlooked, and their streak of scoring prowess suggests they might just have the upper hand. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 11% suggests a tight contest, but the 8% probabilities for both 1-2 and 2-1 outcomes reflect the inherent unpredictability of League Two.

Weather could play a pivotal role, with 13.6°C and 4.4 mm of rain expected. Such conditions often suppress goal-scoring opportunities, but the over 2.5 goals marker still stands at a promising 59%. This indicates that despite the rain, the attacking capabilities on display could very well see a flurry of goals, with both teams having a 62% chance to score.

Crawley Town's recent streak and their consistent scoring record make them the side to back, especially considering the value offered by bookmakers. With certain bookies offering enticing odds on Crawley Town to continue their winning form, there could be value in supporting them. A 1-2 scoreline is a plausible outcome, matched with the over 2.5 goals market, which appears to mirror the match narrative. Keep eyes peeled for Crawley Town's odds, and if they float around that EV+ sweet spot, they might just be worth a punt.

Rochdale

Crawley Town

Form DWWWW

Key players

Liam KellyCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.20
Ronan DarcyRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.19
Dion ConroyCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Rochdale – Crawley Town

Predicted score matrix

Crawley Town →

Rochdale →

0–04.9%

0–16.8%

0–25.5%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.6%

1–06.7%

1–111.2%

1–28.5%

1–34.4%

1–4+2.4%

2–05.4%

2–18.3%

2–26.5%

2–33.3%

2–4+1.8%

3–02.7%

3–14.2%

3–23.3%

3–31.7%

3–4+0.9%

4+–01.5%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-28%
3.2-18%
4.0-17%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,53–1,55

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,541%

@1.88

Over 2,559%

@1.85EV+10%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Crawley Town or draw (X2)63%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Double chance Crawley Town or draw (X2)63%
Over 2.5 goals59%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals59%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Crawley Town40% probability@3.55BetsafeEV+43%
2 · Crawley Town40% probability@3.55BetssonEV+43%
2 · Crawley Town40% probability@3.55NordicbetEV+43%

Bookmaker	1 · Rochdale	X	2 · Crawley Town
Betsafe	1.98	3.40	EV+ 43% 3.55
Betsson	1.98	3.40	EV+ 43% 3.55
Nordicbet	1.98	3.40	EV+ 43% 3.55

Odds updated 16 Aug, 17:35

Odds movement

1+3 %

51 %46 %

1.92 → 1.98

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.40 → 3.40

2-4 %

27 %22 %

3.70 → 3.55

Over 2,5-4 %

53 %48 %

1.92 → 1.85

Betsson · 8 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 16/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Crawley Town FC come into this round on 4 straight wins.
Crawley Town FC have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.

When goals are scored and conceded — 2023

Crawley Town (83–70)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Crawley Town

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Crawley Town

The goalkeepers	Rochdale	Corey Addai (Crawley Town)
Saves	–	194
Save %	–	77%
xG prevented	–	54%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Rochdale vs Crawley Town according to our model?

The model gives Crawley Town a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rochdale 38%, draw 21%, Crawley Town 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.