Shrewsbury Town vs Barnet: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

EFL League Two22 August 2026 16:00 CESTNew Meadow, Shrewsbury14°0,3 mm10 km/h

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Shrewsbury TownCounter-attacks & crosses

BarnetBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Barnet (53%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.82 (+0 %)

1 · Shrewsbury Town 22%X 25%53% Barnet · 2

22%

25%

53%

Analysis: Shrewsbury Town – Barnet

Oscar Nilsson · 17 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Barnet's six-game winning streak casts a long shadow over Shrewsbury Town as they prepare to face off in League Two. The model heavily tips Barnet with a 53% chance of victory, and this momentum is underpinned by their ability to find the net in 11 consecutive league matches. Shrewsbury Town, meanwhile, can only point to a small head-to-head sample since 2023 where they've managed a win and a draw against Barnet, a record that hardly outweighs current form and statistical trends.

Shrewsbury Town, known for their counter-attacking style and reliance on crosses, might find it difficult to break down Barnet's balanced and physical approach. Both teams boast decent xG readings, 2.1 for Shrewsbury and 1.8 for Barnet, but Barnet's tighter xGA of 1.1 suggests they might better limit opportunities. The model's expected goals of 0.93 for Shrewsbury against Barnet's 1.54 further buttresses the expectation of Barnet's dominance.

Barnet starts with an edge not just in form but also in the betting market, offering value at 1.92 odds with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Each of these offers a 1% edge over the model's assessment. This tilts the balance even further towards Barnet, making them the more tantalizing punt for the astute bettor.

The numbers suggest a low-scoring affair, with a 45% lean against over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance for both teams to score. The most likely scorelines—0-1 (13%) and 1-1 (12%)—point to Barnet sneaking a result. Look for a 0-1 finish, with Barnet's recent form and Shrewsbury’s stylistic challenges indicating a narrow victory. The sharp punter should eye Barnet at 1.92 with confidence, as the model's numbers and Barnet's relentless winning streak align towards this favorable outcome.

Shrewsbury Town

Form WDDLL

League ranking xG #4xGA #9xT #5xP/match #14Points #21

Key players

Samuel Raymond ClucasLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.14
Tom SangRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.11
Ismeal KabiaRWxG 0.04 · xT 0.15

Barnet

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #7xGA #8xT #15xP/match #4Points #3

Key players

Kabongo TshimangaFxG 0.18 · xT 0.01
Charlie James LakinCMxG 0.48 · xT 0.11
Kane John SmithLWBxG 0.17 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Shrewsbury Town – Barnet

Predicted score matrix

Barnet →

Shrewsbury Town →

0–08.8%

0–112.6%

0–210.0%

0–35.2%

0–4+2.8%

1–07.5%

1–112.5%

1–29.3%

1–34.8%

1–4+2.6%

2–03.7%

2–15.6%

2–24.4%

2–32.2%

2–4+1.2%

3–01.1%

3–11.8%

3–21.4%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.3%

4+–10.5%

4+–20.4%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-113%
2.1-112%
3.0-210%
4.1-29%
5.0-09%

Expected goals

0,93–1,54

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,555%

@1.82EV+0%

Over 2,545%

@1.92

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Barnet to win53%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Barnet to win53%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Kabongo Tshimanga to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Kabongo Tshimanga to score26%
Thomas Roy Sang to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.555% probability@1.82BetsafeEV+0%reference odds
Under 2.555% probability@1.82BetssonEV+0%reference odds
Under 2.555% probability@1.82NordicbetEV+0%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Shrewsbury Town	X	2 · Barnet
Betsafe	3.95	3.40	1.88
Betsson	3.95	3.40	1.88
Nordicbet	3.95	3.40	1.88

Odds updated 18 Aug, 06:36

Odds movement

1+7 %

27 %22 %

3.70 → 3.95

X-1 %

30 %25 %

3.45 → 3.40

2-2 %

51 %46 %

1.92 → 1.88

Over 2,50 %

51 %46 %

1.92 → 1.92

Betsson · 13 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Shrewsbury Town 1Draw 1Barnet 0

Goals: 3–1 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.

Key facts

Barnet come into this round on 6 straight wins.
Barnet have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Shrewsbury Town

Barnet

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Shrewsbury Town (0–2)

Barnet (3–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Shrewsbury Town

Barnet

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Shrewsbury Town

Barnet

The teams in numbers

Performance	Shrewsbury Town	Barnet
Points	0	3
xPoints	1.3	2.2
xG per match	2.1	1.8
xGA per match	1.2	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.05	0.92
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.36	0.14

Playing style	Shrewsbury Town	Barnet
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.35
Field tilt	0.65	0.62
xT per match	1.3	0.73
xTA per match	0.57	0.4
Won balls, offensive half	36	36
Pressing intensity	0.2	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.45	0.46
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.48	0.45
Entries into the box per match	14	16
Entries into the box against	7	11
Pass completion %	0.61	0.51
Pass completion % under pressure	0.57	0.52
Passes per match	263	154
Passes against per match	186	224
Switches of play per match	23.7	8.8
Long balls per match	35	24

Set pieces	Shrewsbury Town	Barnet
xG from free kicks	0.49	0.12
Corners per match	5.2	5.9
Corners against per match	3.1	4.9
xG per corner	0	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.2

Other	Shrewsbury Town	Barnet
Throw-in control	0.79	0.71

The goalkeepers	William Michael Brook (Shrewsbury Town)	Daniele James Collinge (Barnet)
Saves	2	1
Save %	50%	100%
xG prevented	33%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Shrewsbury Town vs Barnet according to our model?

The model gives Barnet a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Shrewsbury Town 22%, draw 25%, Barnet 53%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.