Walsall vs Grimsby Town: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

EFL League Two22 August 2026 13:30 CESTBescot Stadium, Walsall14°9 km/h

WalsallCounter-attacks & crosses

Grimsby TownPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Grimsby Town (44%)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Walsall 29%X 27%44% Grimsby Town · 2

29%

27%

44%

Analysis: Walsall – Grimsby Town

Marcus Johansson · 17 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Grimsby Town's scoring prowess is undeniable, finding the net in 13 consecutive league matches. This streak speaks volumes about their offensive consistency, especially against a Walsall side that has struggled to assert a solid defensive footing this season. With a model probability of 44% favoring Grimsby Town, and odds reflecting 17% value with multiple bookmakers, the betting angle sharply tilts towards Grimsby taking the win at odds of 2.65 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet.

Walsall, with their counter-attacking and crossing style, have failed to consistently convert their tactical approach into tangible results. Although they hold a slight edge in xG per match at 3.0 compared to Grimsby's 2.5, their xGA is less impressive, indicating susceptibility at the back. Grimsby Town's superior xGA at 0.97 underscores their defensive resilience and ability to control games through possession, a style that could stifle Walsall's efforts to break quickly.

The head-to-head record since 2023, albeit a small sample of four matches, leans slightly towards Grimsby Town with two wins to Walsall's one. However, it's the broader metrics such as xPoints, which see Grimsby edging Walsall at 2.1 against 2.0, that reinforce the likelihood of an away victory. The expected goals metric also favors Grimsby at 1.32 to Walsall's 1.05, suggesting they are more likely to outscore their opponents.

With only a 42% probability for over 2.5 goals, and a 48% chance for both teams to score, the data hints at a more controlled, perhaps lower-scoring affair, in which Grimsby Town might just nick it. A 0-1 scoreline emerges as a plausible scenario, echoing the calculated odds and their recent form. In a match where Grimsby Town's possession and defensive solidity could eclipse Walsall's counter-attacking threats, the value lies squarely with an away win, underscoring a confident punt on the Mariners in this League Two clash.

Walsall

Form LWLLW

League ranking xG #1xGA #10xT #13xP/match #8Points #2

Key players

Aaron PressleyFxG 0.64 · xT 0.27
Reece SmithLWxG 0.39 · xT -0.07
James Alfred ConnollyCBxG 0.93 · xT 0.04

Grimsby Town

Form WDLDW

League ranking xG #2xGA #7xT #6xP/match #7Points #10

Key players

Charles VernamLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.20
Kieran GreenRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.20
Jaze Kevin KabiaFxG 0.45 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Walsall – Grimsby Town

Predicted score matrix

Grimsby Town →

Walsall →

0–09.8%

0–112.0%

0–28.2%

0–33.6%

0–4+1.6%

1–09.5%

1–113.4%

1–28.5%

1–33.7%

1–4+1.6%

2–05.1%

2–16.8%

2–24.5%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.9%

3–01.8%

3–12.4%

3–21.6%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.6%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-112%
3.0-010%
4.1-09%
5.1-29%

Expected goals

1,05–1,32

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.65

Over 2,542%

@2.12

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Grimsby Town or draw (X2)71%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Grimsby Town or draw (X2)71%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Andrew Ellis Cook to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Aaron Alex Pressley to score27%
Cameron McJannet to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Grimsby Town44% probability@2.45BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
2 · Grimsby Town44% probability@2.45BetssonEV+8%reference odds
2 · Grimsby Town44% probability@2.45NordicbetEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Walsall	X	2 · Grimsby Town
Betsafe	2.75	3.20	EV+ 8% 2.45
Betsson	2.75	3.20	EV+ 8% 2.45
Nordicbet	2.75	3.20	EV+ 8% 2.45

Odds updated 18 Aug, 16:36

Odds movement

1+4 %

37 %32 %

2.65 → 2.75

X+2 %

32 %27 %

3.15 → 3.20

2-4 %

39 %34 %

2.55 → 2.45

Over 2,5-3 %

47 %42 %

2.18 → 2.12

Betsson · 15 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Walsall 1Draw 1Grimsby Town 2

Goals: 7–7 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.

Key facts

Grimsby Town have scored in 13 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Walsall

Grimsby Town

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Walsall (3–0)

Grimsby Town (1–0)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Walsall

Grimsby Town

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Walsall

Grimsby Town

The teams in numbers

Performance	Walsall	Grimsby Town
Points	3	3
xPoints	2	2.1
xG per match	3	2.5
xGA per match	1.3	0.97
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.41	0.65
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0	0.41

Playing style	Walsall	Grimsby Town
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.32
Field tilt	0.48	0.69
xT per match	0.78	1.3
xTA per match	0.97	0.36
Won balls, offensive half	23	44
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.18
Pressing efficiency	0.39	0.38
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.4	0.3
Entries into the box per match	14	23
Entries into the box against	13	7
Pass completion %	0.69	0.66
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.58
Passes per match	288	306
Passes against per match	203	262
Switches of play per match	24.7	28.8
Long balls per match	30	37

Set pieces	Walsall	Grimsby Town
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.05
Corners per match	8.6	6.2
Corners against per match	5.7	3.1
xG per corner	0.05	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.01	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.56	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.67

Other	Walsall	Grimsby Town
Throw-in control	0.69	0.69

The goalkeepers	Jed MacAulay Ward (Walsall)	Christy James Pym (Grimsby Town)
Saves	7	2
Save %	100%	100%
xG prevented	100%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Walsall vs Grimsby Town according to our model?

The model gives Grimsby Town a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Walsall 29%, draw 27%, Grimsby Town 44%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.