Rouen vs Cannes: Prediction & Odds (7 Aug 2026)

National 17 August 202618°8 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

Läs på svenska

RouenPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Rouen (56%)

CannesPossession control

1 · Rouen 56%X 22%22% Cannes · 2

56%

22%

Rouen

Form DWDLW

League ranking xG #17xGA #10xT #12xP/match #13Points #13

Key players

Junior NdiayeFxG 0.33 · xT 0.07
Rayan Edwards Kwedi MandengueLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.19
Ismaïl BounebCAMxG 0.16 · xT 0.13

Cannes

League ranking xG #7xGA #9xT #9xP/match #14Points #8

Key players

Ivann Quentin BotellaFxG 0.3 · xT 0.1
Mohamed HafidRWxG 0.1 · xT 0.19
Valentin HenryRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.1

Match prediction: Rouen – Cannes

Predicted score matrix

Cannes →

Rouen →

0–04.0%

0–14.4%

0–22.9%

0–31.2%

0–4+0.5%

1–07.4%

1–19.8%

1–25.9%

1–32.5%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.8%

2–19.7%

2–26.0%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.0%

3–05.3%

3–16.6%

3–24.1%

3–31.7%

3–4+0.7%

4+–04.3%

4+–15.4%

4+–23.4%

4+–31.4%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-110%
3.2-08%
4.1-07%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

2,04–1,25

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,536%

–

Over 2,564%

–

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Analysis: Rouen – Cannes

Sofia Andersson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Rouen's 56% probability to win speaks volumes about their expected dominance against Cannes in this National 1 clash. With a model-leaning edge, Rouen's home advantage is palpable and not just a figment of statistical imagination. Despite being seven points adrift in the standings, Rouen's underlying figures suggest they should be in a better position, boasting 40.4 xPoints compared to Cannes' 39.7. This subtle yet crucial indicator highlights Rouen's potential to convert chances and dictate terms against an equally possession-oriented Cannes side.

Rouen's expected goals tally of 2.04 against Cannes' 1.25 further tilts the scales. While both teams prefer to hold onto the ball, Rouen's knack for turning possession into tangible opportunities could be decisive. Defensively, both teams are matched, conceding 1.2 xGA per match, yet it's the potential offensive output that could set them apart. Cannes, with a higher xG per match at 1.2, suggest they can find the net, but Rouen's ability to outperform their expected goals might just see them edge past.

Cannes might be buoyed by their superior standing points, but Rouen's statistical edge is hard to ignore. The most probable scorelines at 1-1 and 2-1 give credence to a tight contest, but with a slight nod to the home side. The 64% chance of over 2.5 goals suggests that fireworks are likely, further supported by a 62% likelihood of both teams finding the net. The balance of these probabilities leans towards Rouen taking this with a 2-1 victory, a scoreline that aligns with their offensive potential and home dynamics.

For punters, the sharpest angle lies with Bet365 offering odds of 2.10 for Rouen to win. Given their statistical edge and expected goals supremacy, this presents a tantalizing value bet. While no result is ever certain, the numbers stack in favor of the home side making good on their underlying promise.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Rouen

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Rouen (34–45)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Rouen

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Rouen

The teams in numbers

Performance	Rouen	Cannes
Points	33	40
xPoints	40.4	39.7
xG per match	0.9	1.2
xGA per match	1.2	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.14	0.19

Playing style	Rouen	Cannes
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.34
Field tilt	0.41	0.6
xT per match	0.78	0.92
xTA per match	0.97	0.84
Won balls, offensive half	22	26
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.37
Entries into the box per match	8	11
Entries into the box against	11	8
Pass completion %	0.73	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.72
Passes per match	298	409
Passes against per match	391	284
Switches of play per match	19.1	32.4
Long balls per match	28	40

Set pieces	Rouen	Cannes
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.1
Corners per match	3.2	4.4
Corners against per match	5.1	3.4
xG per corner	0.05	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.64

Other	Rouen	Cannes
Throw-in control	0.65	0.7

The goalkeepers	Ouparine Djoco (Rouen)	Cannes
Saves	51	–
Save %	70%	–
xG prevented	34%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Rouen vs Cannes according to our model?

The model gives Rouen a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rouen 56%, draw 22%, Cannes 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.