Hertha Berlin vs Heidenheim: Prediction & Odds (15 Aug 2026)

2. Bundesliga15 August 2026Olympiastadion, Berlin26°16 km/h

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Hertha BerlinPossession control

HeidenheimPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Hertha Berlin (47%)

1 · Hertha Berlin 47%X 26%27% Heidenheim · 2

47%

26%

27%

Analysis: Hertha Berlin – Heidenheim

Marcus Johansson · 13 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Hertha BSC Berlin, with a 47% chance of victory, stands as the favored side against Heidenheim, but the story is far from straightforward. Their expected goals sit at 1.61 compared to Heidenheim's 1.23, highlighting a slight offensive edge. However, the underlying numbers weave a complex narrative. Hertha's xG per match at a paltry 0.72 sharply contrasts with Heidenheim's robust 2.6. Such disparity suggests Hertha's finishing has been clinical but heavily reliant on limited chances.

Hertha BSC Berlin's defensive solidity is underscored by an xGA of 1.1 per match, a clear advantage over Heidenheim's leaky 2.0. Yet, Heidenheim's ability to generate 0.64 xG within eight seconds of winning the ball hints at their potent counter-attacking threat. This dynamic clash of styles, both teams opting for possession control, might lead to spells of measured build-up interspersed with rapid transitions.

Small sample head-to-head records often cloud judgment, so form and expected goals must guide our expectations. The model favors a draw at 12%, with both teams capable of scoring. An over 2.5 goals probability of 54% and a 57% chance of both teams finding the net reveal a fixture primed for action, though Hertha's defensive numbers suggest they might control the tempo.

Hertha BSC Berlin 2-1 Heidenheim emerges as a compelling prediction, aligning with both historical likelihood and risk profile. Bettors should note the value in Hertha's win at home, especially with Pinnacle offering odds of 2.33, a juicy 8% edge for those trusting the model's 47% win probability.

Hertha Berlin

Form LLWLW

League ranking xG #15xGA #6xT #18xP/match #8Points #6

Key players

Fabian ReeseLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.26
Paul SeguinCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.06
Luca SchulerFxG 0.42 · xT -0.02

Heidenheim

Form W

League ranking xG #3xGA #13xT #5xP/match #6Points #4

Key players

Marvin PieringerFxG 0.44 · xT -0.02
Marcel CostlyRWxG 0.81 · xT 0.25
Jan SchöppnerCDMxG 0.35 · xT 0.00

Match prediction: Hertha Berlin – Heidenheim

Predicted score matrix

Heidenheim →

Hertha Berlin →

0–06.2%

0–16.9%

0–24.4%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.7%

1–09.1%

1–111.9%

1–27.1%

1–32.9%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.6%

2–19.3%

2–25.7%

2–32.3%

2–4+0.9%

3–04.1%

3–15.0%

3–23.1%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.5%

4+–02.4%

4+–12.9%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.2-08%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,61–1,23

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@2.25EV+1%

Over 2,554%

@1.68

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Hertha Berlin to win47%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Hertha Berlin to win47%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Josip Brekalo to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Josip Brekalo to score21%
Patrick Mainka to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Hertha Berlin47% probability@2.34PinnacleEV+9%
Under 2.546% probability@2.25PinnacleEV+4%
1 · Hertha Berlin47% probability@2.22BetsafeEV+3%

Bookmaker	1 · Hertha Berlin	X	2 · Heidenheim
Betfair Exchange	2.14	EV+ 2% 3.85	3.15
Betsafe	EV+ 3% 2.22	3.40	2.92
Betsson	EV+ 3% 2.22	3.40	2.92
Nordicbet	EV+ 3% 2.22	3.40	2.92
Pinnacle	EV+ 9% 2.34	3.57	2.93

Odds updated 14 Aug, 00:24

Odds movement

1+4 %

44 %39 %

2.25 → 2.34

X-2 %

29 %24 %

3.63 → 3.57

2-4 %

34 %29 %

3.05 → 2.93

Over 2,5+1 %

60 %55 %

1.66 → 1.68

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 11/08/2026 → 14/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Hertha Berlin

Heidenheim

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Hertha Berlin (1–0)

Heidenheim (4–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Hertha Berlin

Heidenheim

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Hertha Berlin

Heidenheim

The teams in numbers

Performance	Hertha Berlin	Heidenheim
Points	3	3
xPoints	1.4	1.5
xG per match	0.72	2.6
xGA per match	1.1	2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.24	0.64
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.16	0.11

Playing style	Hertha Berlin	Heidenheim
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.35	0.52
xT per match	0.47	1.2
xTA per match	1	0.94
Won balls, offensive half	30	21
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.2
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.4
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.37
Entries into the box per match	9	15
Entries into the box against	11	15
Pass completion %	0.71	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.71
Passes per match	269	379
Passes against per match	360	299
Switches of play per match	16.1	37.5
Long balls per match	37	54

Set pieces	Hertha Berlin	Heidenheim
xG from free kicks	0.11	0
Corners per match	2	4
Corners against per match	5	5.9
xG per corner	0	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.8	0.5

Other	Hertha Berlin	Heidenheim
Throw-in control	0.86	0.77

The goalkeepers	Marius Gersbeck (Hertha Berlin)	Tim Siersleben (Heidenheim)
Saves	3	4
Save %	100%	100%
xG prevented	100%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Hertha Berlin vs Heidenheim according to our model?

The model gives Hertha Berlin a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hertha Berlin 47%, draw 26%, Heidenheim 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.