Darmstadt vs Holstein Kiel: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

2. Bundesliga8 August 2026Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Darmstadt22°9 km/h

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DarmstadtPossession control

2–2

Holstein KielPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Darmstadt (49%)

1 · Darmstadt 49%X 24%27% Holstein Kiel · 2

49%

24%

27%

Analysis: Darmstadt – Holstein Kiel

Anna Karlsson · 7 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

49% speaks volumes. That's the model's lean, and it favours Darmstadt to come out on top against Holstein Kiel. Both clubs share a penchant for possession football, yet the numbers suggest Darmstadt is better equipped to turn control into points. They sit 11 points clear of their opponents, with both tangible results and underlying metrics tipping the scales in their favour. While head-to-head data since early 2023 is limited—a mere two matches—it nonetheless leans Darmstadt's way, with one win and a draw.

Darmstadt's expected goals of 1.70 against Kiel's 1.23 further underscores their attacking edge. The model's most probable scorelines—1-1, 2-1, and 1-0—also reflect Darmstadt's slight superiority. The 1-1 scoreline sits at just 11%, indicative of a match where the scales tip more towards Darmstadt, despite Kiel's capability to score.

Holstein Kiel doesn't come without weapons of their own, but with an xG of 1.3 per match, they might find themselves struggling to break down a Darmstadt side that's equally matched in expected goals against. Weather disruptions are absent here, meaning the model's numbers, including a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% probability for both teams finding the net, remain unclouded by climate concerns.

Darmstadt opens this one as the value bet, with Pinnacle offering 2.28 odds on a home win. The model suggests a 49% likelihood, granting a 12% edge—a tempting proposition for the sharp-eyed punter. A 2-1 victory for Darmstadt seems the most plausible outcome, though a 1-0 result wouldn't surprise. Either way, the home side emerges as the smarter play, with a slight lean towards the over 2.5 goals market given the offensive potential on display.

Darmstadt

Form LDLDL

League ranking xG #6xGA #12xT #8xP/match #14Points #5

Key players

Isac LidbergFxG 0.45 · xT 0.04
Kai KlefischCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.09
Luca MarseilerLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.16

Holstein Kiel

Form WWWLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #16xT #15xP/match #17Points #12

Key players

Alexander BernhardssonRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.24
John TolkinLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.12
Carl JohanssonCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.00

Final score

2 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Darmstadt 49% · Draw 24% · Holstein Kiel 27%

Match prediction: Darmstadt – Holstein Kiel

Predicted score matrix

Holstein Kiel →

Darmstadt →

0–05.7%

0–16.3%

0–24.1%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.7%

1–08.8%

1–111.5%

1–26.9%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.1%

2–07.7%

2–19.5%

2–25.8%

2–32.4%

2–4+1.0%

3–04.4%

3–15.4%

3–23.3%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.5%

4+–02.7%

4+–13.3%

4+–22.0%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.2-08%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,70–1,23

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

@2.27

Over 2,556%

@1.66

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Darmstadt to win49%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Darmstadt to win49%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Isac Alexi Sivert Lidberg to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Isac Alexi Sivert Lidberg to score29%
David Zec to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Darmstadt49% probability@2.12PinnacleEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Darmstadt	X	2 · Holstein Kiel
Pinnacle	EV+ 4% 2.12	3.60	3.41

Odds updated 8 Aug, 10:09

Odds movement

10 %

46 %41 %

2.11 → 2.12

X-4 %

29 %24 %

3.75 → 3.60

2+9 %

32 %27 %

3.14 → 3.41

Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Darmstadt 1Draw 1Holstein Kiel 0

Goals: 3–1 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on 2. Bundesliga data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Darmstadt

Holstein Kiel

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Darmstadt (57–45)

Holstein Kiel (44–48)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Darmstadt

Holstein Kiel

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Darmstadt

Holstein Kiel

The teams in numbers

Performance	Darmstadt	Holstein Kiel
Points	52	41
xPoints	43.8	38.8
xG per match	1.6	1.3
xGA per match	1.6	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.36	0.28

Playing style	Darmstadt	Holstein Kiel
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.28
Field tilt	0.47	0.44
xT per match	1	0.79
xTA per match	1.1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	25	23
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.32	0.36
Entries into the box per match	14	11
Entries into the box against	13	13
Pass completion %	0.79	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.71
Passes per match	380	354
Passes against per match	354	327
Switches of play per match	29.6	18.3
Long balls per match	37	25

Set pieces	Darmstadt	Holstein Kiel
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.05
Corners per match	4.9	5.2
Corners against per match	5.6	4.9
xG per corner	0.1	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.07
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.52
First touch, defensive corners %	0.51	0.54

Other	Darmstadt	Holstein Kiel
Throw-in control	0.73	0.73

The goalkeepers	Marcel Schuhen (Darmstadt)	Jonas Krumrey (Holstein Kiel)
Saves	119	69
Save %	74%	69%
xG prevented	48%	40%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Darmstadt

Fixtures, form & tips

Holstein Kiel

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Darmstadt vs Holstein Kiel according to our model?

The model gives Darmstadt a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Darmstadt 49%, draw 24%, Holstein Kiel 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.