2. BundesligaMerck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Darmstadt22°8 km/hUpdated
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DarmstadtPossession control
Holstein KielPossession controlDarmstadt – Holstein Kiel · 2. Bundesliga
Darmstadt- Isac LidbergFxG 0.45 · xT 0.04
- Kai KlefischCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.09
- Luca MarseilerLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.16
Holstein Kiel- Alexander BernhardssonRWxG 0.2 · xT 0.24
- John TolkinLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.12
- Carl JohanssonCBxG 0.08 · xT 0
Match prediction: Darmstadt – Holstein Kiel
Predicted score matrix
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-27%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,9Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Darmstadt49% probability@2.11PinnacleEV+3%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Darmstadt | X | 2 · Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | EV+ 3% 2.11 | 3.75 | 3.14 |
Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:03
Analysis: Darmstadt – Holstein Kiel
Anna Karlsson · · How the predictions work
Fifty-two points for Darmstadt against Holstein Kiel's 41 sets the stage for a clash that the bookmakers see with a slight advantage for the home side. The model agrees, giving Darmstadt a 49% chance of victory against Holstein Kiel's 27%. While these numbers are close, it's the history between these two that's revealing — Darmstadt has yet to lose to Holstein Kiel in their meetings since 2023, securing one win and a draw.
Darmstadt's expected goals (xG) sit at 1.6 per match, slightly higher than Holstein Kiel's 1.3, underscoring the home team's more potent attack. Yet, both sides mirror each other with possession control strategies, preparing us for a potentially tactical battle rather than an open end-to-end affair. If we trust the numbers, a 1-1 draw at 11% appears slightly more likely than others, but the scales tilt ever so gently towards a Darmstadt win, with a 2-1 or 1-0 scoreline both plausible at 9%.
Holstein Kiel might feel a touch outgunned given their expected goals against (xGA) measure of 1.7, compared to Darmstadt's 1.6. This minor defensive edge could play out significantly in a tight match. Moreover, with a 56% chance of seeing over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, there's a fair chance this won't be a defensive stalemate.
Holstein Kiel's task isn't made any easier by the betting value on offer. With Pinnacle's odds of 2.11 on a Darmstadt win presenting an expected value edge of 3%, punters might find the home side an enticing prospect. All signs point towards Darmstadt edging this encounter, likely by a narrow 2-1 margin, and the numbers suggest a lean towards over 2.5 goals as the astute play in this spirited 2. Bundesliga matchup.
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesHead-to-head based on 2. Bundesliga data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Darmstadt | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52 | 41 |
| xPoints | 43.8 | 38.8 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| Playing style | Darmstadt | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| xT per match | 1 | 0.79 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 380 | 354 |
| Passes against per match | 354 | 327 |
| Switches of play per match | 29.6 | 18.3 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 25 |
| Set pieces | Darmstadt | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 4.9 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 5.6 | 4.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.1 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.52 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.54 |
| Other | Darmstadt | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Marcel Schuhen (Darmstadt) | Jonas Krumrey (Holstein Kiel) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 119 | 69 |
| Save % | 74% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 48% | 40% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Darmstadt vs Holstein Kiel according to our model?
The model gives Darmstadt a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Darmstadt 49%, draw 24%, Holstein Kiel 27%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.