Energie Cottbus vs Hannover 96: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

2. Bundesliga9 August 2026Stadion der Freundschaft, Cottbus23°10 km/h

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Energie Cottbus

3–1

Hannover 96Possession control

The model's lean: 1 · Energie Cottbus (38%)

1 · Energie Cottbus 38%X 25%37% Hannover 96 · 2

38%

25%

37%

Analysis: Energie Cottbus – Hannover 96

Oscar Nilsson · 7 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Hannover 96 have been on a tear recently, unbeaten in their last nine league outings and finding the back of the net for 11 matches in a row. This kind of form sends a clear message: they are a tough nut to crack. However, when it comes to this clash with Energie Cottbus, the numbers suggest a more balanced affair than one might initially expect.

Energie Cottbus have a 38% chance of clinching a victory, according to the model, slightly edging out Hannover 96's 37%. The model's lean towards Cottbus isn't just academic; it's backed by value in the betting markets. Pinnacle offers odds of 3.19 on a home win, which presents a striking 21% edge based on the model's probability. For those with a betting brain attuned to value, this might be a nugget worth panning for.

Energie Cottbus are not to be underestimated, especially at home where they can leverage their expected goals tally of 1.55 against Hannover's 1.59. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 11% probability underscores the tight nature of this matchup. Yet, with a hefty 61% chance of over 2.5 goals, the game promises more than a tepid stalemate. The high probability of both teams scoring, perched at 63%, suggests fans could be treated to a lively exchange.

In terms of weather, if rain and wind play their part, goal-scoring might be tempered, but it’s already factored into the model’s numbers. A cautious punter might still find the 'over' tempting given the statistical likelihood.

Ultimately, while Hannover 96's form is undeniable, the sharper angle here is the value on Energie Cottbus at home. The bookmakers' odds seem to have underestimated their bite, and for those looking to back a slight underdog with fair wind at their backs, Cottbus might just be the play.

Energie Cottbus

Hannover 96

Form DWDDD

League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #1xP/match #4Points #4

Key players

Benjamin KällmanFxG 0.48 · xT 0.02
Maurice NeubauerLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.11
Enzo LeopoldCDMxG 0.09 · xT 0.06

Final score

3 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Energie Cottbus 38% · Draw 25% · Hannover 96 37%

Match prediction: Energie Cottbus – Hannover 96

Predicted score matrix

Hannover 96 →

Energie Cottbus →

0–04.6%

0–16.6%

0–25.4%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.6%

1–06.4%

1–111.0%

1–28.5%

1–34.5%

1–4+2.5%

2–05.2%

2–18.3%

2–26.6%

2–33.5%

2–4+2.0%

3–02.7%

3–14.3%

3–23.4%

3–31.8%

3–4+1.0%

4+–01.5%

4+–12.4%

4+–21.9%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-28%
3.2-18%
4.2-27%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,55–1,59

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

–

Over 2,561%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Energie Cottbus or draw (1X)62%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Energie Cottbus or draw (1X)62%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Erik Engelhardt to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Erik Engelhardt to score22%
Dominik Leon Pelivan to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Energie Cottbus38% probability@3.23PinnacleEV+22%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Energie Cottbus	X	2 · Hannover 96
Pinnacle	EV+ 22% 3.23	3.78	2.13

Odds updated 9 Aug, 10:10

Odds movement

1+1 %

32 %27 %

3.20 → 3.23

X0 %

27 %22 %

3.77 → 3.78

2+3 %

48 %43 %

2.07 → 2.13

Pinnacle · 16 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Hannover 96 are unbeaten in their last 9 league matches.
Hannover 96 have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Hannover 96

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Hannover 96 (60–44)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Hannover 96

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Hannover 96

The goalkeepers	Energie Cottbus	Nahuel Noll (Hannover 96)
Saves	–	99
Save %	–	70%
xG prevented	–	39%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Energie Cottbus

Fixtures, form & tips

Hannover 96

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Energie Cottbus vs Hannover 96 according to our model?

The model gives Energie Cottbus a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Energie Cottbus 38%, draw 25%, Hannover 96 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.