Energie Cottbus vs Hannover 96: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

2. Bundesliga9 August 2026Stadion der Freundschaft, Cottbus24°13 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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Energie CottbusPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Energie Cottbus (38%)

Hannover 96Possession control

1 · Energie Cottbus 38%X 25%37% Hannover 96 · 2

38%

25%

37%

Energie Cottbus

League ranking xG #9xGA #7xT #9xP/match #7Points #8

Key players

Piet ScobelFxG 0.56 · xT 0.01
Rafael LubachLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.04
Julian JustvanRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.18

Hannover 96

Form DWDDD

League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #1xP/match #4Points #4

Key players

Benjamin KällmanFxG 0.48 · xT 0.02
Maurice NeubauerLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.11
Enzo LeopoldCDMxG 0.09 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Energie Cottbus – Hannover 96

Predicted score matrix

Hannover 96 →

Energie Cottbus →

0–04.6%

0–16.6%

0–25.4%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.6%

1–06.4%

1–111.0%

1–28.5%

1–34.5%

1–4+2.5%

2–05.2%

2–18.3%

2–26.6%

2–33.5%

2–4+2.0%

3–02.7%

3–14.3%

3–23.4%

3–31.8%

3–4+1.0%

4+–01.5%

4+–12.4%

4+–21.9%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-28%
3.2-18%
4.2-27%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,55–1,59

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

–

Over 2,561%

–

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Energie Cottbus38% probability@3.20PinnacleEV+21%

Bookmaker	1 · Energie Cottbus	X	2 · Hannover 96
Pinnacle	EV+ 21% 3.20	3.77	2.07

Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:04

Analysis: Energie Cottbus – Hannover 96

Oscar Nilsson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Nine matches without a loss paints a potent picture of Hannover 96’s recent form, yet the probabilities suggest something intriguing here: Energie Cottbus has a slight edge according to the model, with a 38% chance to win compared to Hannover's 37%. This is a clash steeped in tension, balancing on the knife-edge of two equally strong styles of possession control.

Hannover 96, undefeated of late, has been a model of consistency, finding the back of the net in 11 consecutive league contests. This scoring streak, coupled with their solid defensive record—only 1.2 xGA per match—gives them a robust foundation. Yet, despite their 60 points to Cottbus’s 46, that slim margin in expected points (52.8 to 48.4) hints at vulnerability.

Energie Cottbus, while trailing in points, shares a similar profile in possession control and shows resilience at home, particularly when bookmakers like Pinnacle are providing value at odds of 3.2. The model sees a 38% chance for a home win, offering a tantalizing 21% edge for value-seekers. This makes a punt on Cottbus not just tempting, but potentially rewarding for those looking to buck the trend.

With expected goals almost dead even—1.55 for Cottbus and 1.59 for Hannover—goals should flow. The numbers suggest a free-scoring affair, with a hefty 61% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 63% likelihood of both teams finding the net. Most likely, we could see a 1-1 draw or sneaky 2-1 home triumph, where small margins and moments define the outcome.

The sharpest angle lies in embracing the home underdog’s potential with Pinnacle. Betting on Energie Cottbus to tip the scales at odds of 3.2, given the model’s endorsement, seems a calculated risk amidst the evenly poised battlefield.

Statistics

Key facts

Hannover 96 are unbeaten in their last 9 league matches.
Hannover 96 have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Hannover 96

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Hannover 96 (60–44)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Hannover 96

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Hannover 96

The teams in numbers

Performance	Energie Cottbus	Hannover 96
Points	46	60
xPoints	48.4	52.8
xG per match	1.5	1.8
xGA per match	1.4	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	0.25
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.22

Playing style	Energie Cottbus	Hannover 96
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.32
Field tilt	0.5	0.61
xT per match	1	1.1
xTA per match	0.89	0.77
Won balls, offensive half	23	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.34	0.36
Entries into the box per match	13	14
Entries into the box against	13	10
Pass completion %	0.76	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.75
Passes per match	340	422
Passes against per match	353	311
Switches of play per match	24.7	26.9
Long balls per match	31	31

Set pieces	Energie Cottbus	Hannover 96
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.12
Corners per match	5.2	6.1
Corners against per match	4.6	4
xG per corner	0.05	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.07	0.07
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.52
First touch, defensive corners %	0.49	0.54

Other	Energie Cottbus	Hannover 96
Throw-in control	0.7	0.77

The goalkeepers	Energie Cottbus	Nahuel Noll (Hannover 96)
Saves	–	99
Save %	–	70%
xG prevented	–	39%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Energie Cottbus vs Hannover 96 according to our model?

The model gives Energie Cottbus a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Energie Cottbus 38%, draw 25%, Hannover 96 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.