St. Pauli vs Greuther Fürth: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

2. Bundesliga9 August 2026Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg22°15 km/h

Läs på svenska

St. Pauli

1–1

Greuther FürthPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · St. Pauli (43%)Best value by the model: 2 · Greuther Fürth @ 4.19 (+19 %)

1 · St. Pauli 43%X 28%29% Greuther Fürth · 2

43%

28%

29%

Analysis: St. Pauli – Greuther Fürth

Sofia Andersson · 7 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

A 43% win probability for FC St. Pauli paints them as favorites in this clash with SpVgg Greuther Furth in the 2. Bundesliga, but there's more nuance buried within the numbers. The expected goals tally, with St. Pauli at 1.40 and Furth at 1.12, suggests a closely contested affair likely to produce a narrow margin. Most notably, the model's lean on a 1-1 scoreline (13%) as the most probable result reinforces the notion of a tight, low-scoring encounter.

FC St. Pauli's home edge isn't overwhelming given the probabilities, but their slight superiority is reflected in the 1-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9%) scoreline predictions. With a modest 46% chance of over 2.5 goals, any hopes of an attacking spectacle are further dampened. The 51% both teams to score probability highlights that while both sides might find the net, a goal-fest is unlikely. The numbers suggest caution for punters looking at the goals market.

SpVgg Greuther Furth, meanwhile, bring an interesting angle with value lurking in their away win odds. Pinnacle offers them at 3.81, presenting a 9% edge on the model's 29% probability. With such value on Furth, the calculated risk might tempt those looking for something beyond the straightforward narrative of St. Pauli’s home advantage.

The small head-to-head sample size limits its impact on the analysis, leaving form and expected goals as the primary compass points. But the real sharp angle shines in the draw market, where Pinnacle’s 3.84 odds present an 8% edge. With a 28% probability, the draw’s value is intriguing, dovetailing with the predicted tightness of the match. Betting brains will note that, while St. Pauli may have the edge, those Pinnacle odds on a draw are worth a second glance.

St. Pauli

Form WWLWW

Greuther Fürth

Form WLDLW

League ranking xG #15xGA #14xT #16xP/match #13Points #16

Key players

Noel FutkeuFxG 0.46 · xT 0.01
Felix KlausRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.17
Jan ElvediCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.06

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: St. Pauli 43% · Draw 28% · Greuther Fürth 29%

Match prediction: St. Pauli – Greuther Fürth

Predicted score matrix

Greuther Fürth →

St. Pauli →

0–08.4%

0–18.7%

0–25.1%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.7%

1–010.9%

1–113.0%

1–27.1%

1–32.6%

1–4+0.9%

2–07.9%

2–18.8%

2–24.9%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.7%

3–03.7%

3–14.1%

3–22.3%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.7%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.0-19%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,40–1,12

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

–

Over 2,546%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance St. Pauli or draw (1X)70%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance St. Pauli or draw (1X)70%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Johannes Eggestein to score41%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Johannes Eggestein to score41%
Philipp Ziereis to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Greuther Fürth29% probability@4.19PinnacleEV+19%reference odds
X · Draw28% probability@3.85PinnacleEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · St. Pauli	X	2 · Greuther Fürth
Pinnacle	1.83	EV+ 8% 3.85	EV+ 19% 4.19

Odds updated 9 Aug, 10:10

Odds movement

1-2 %

54 %49 %

1.85 → 1.83

X0 %

27 %22 %

3.84 → 3.85

2+10 %

26 %21 %

3.81 → 4.19

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Greuther Fürth

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Greuther Fürth (49–68)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Greuther Fürth

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Greuther Fürth

The goalkeepers	St. Pauli	Silas Joel Prufrock (Greuther Fürth)
Saves	–	43
Save %	–	71%
xG prevented	–	42%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

St. Pauli

Fixtures, form & tips

Greuther Fürth

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins St. Pauli vs Greuther Fürth according to our model?

The model gives St. Pauli a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: St. Pauli 43%, draw 28%, Greuther Fürth 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.