2. BundesligaMillerntor-Stadion, Hamburg21°3,6 mm24 km/hUpdated
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St. PauliLow block & direct
Greuther FürthPossession controlSt. Pauli – Greuther Fürth · 2. Bundesliga
St. Pauli- Moussa SyllaFxG 0.46 · xT 0.09
- Dejan LjubičićFxG 0.26 · xT 0.19
- Adil AouchicheLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.32
Greuther Fürth- Noel FutkeuFxG 0.46 · xT 0.01
- Felix KlausRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.17
- Jan ElvediCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.06
Match prediction: St. Pauli – Greuther Fürth
Predicted score matrix
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-19%
- 5.0-08%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,5Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Greuther Fürth29% probability@3.81PinnacleEV+9%
- X · Draw28% probability@3.84PinnacleEV+8%
| Bookmaker | 1 · St. Pauli | X | 2 · Greuther Fürth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.85 | EV+ 8% 3.84 | EV+ 9% 3.81 |
Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:04
Analysis: St. Pauli – Greuther Fürth
Sofia Andersson · · How the predictions work
Seventy points versus thirty-seven — that's the striking gulf in points that FC St. Pauli holds over SpVgg Greuther Furth. The numbers suggest a tale of two very different campaigns, and they have FC St. Pauli leading the charge with a defensive setup that’s tight yet direct. Their knack for grinding out results is underlined by their expected points (xPoints) tally of 55.9, significantly outpacing Greuther Furth's 43.7. This lends credibility to the model's inclination toward a St. Pauli victory, setting the tone for a home side that knows how to capitalize on its chances.
FC St. Pauli's advantage is etched not just in points but in execution. They boast an expected goals (xG) per match of 1.6, with their opponents lagging at 1.3. The defensive metrics tell a similar story, with St. Pauli conceding just 1.1 xGA per game compared to Greuther Furth’s rather porous 1.7. Such figures suggest that while the visitors will likely focus on possession, they may struggle to pierce the hosts' sturdy back line.
SpVgg Greuther Furth might fancy their chances of sneaking a result, especially with the bookies offering value at 3.81 odds for an away win with Pinnacle. There's also an 8% edge for a draw at odds of 3.84. These value bets are tempting, given the statistical model rates both outcomes with a reasonable probability—29% for the away win and 28% for the draw.
The most probable scorelines of 1-1 at 13% and 1-0 at 11% are revealing. Despite being the favourites, St. Pauli might not run away with it. And with the weather set at a damp 21.3°C and 3.6 mm of rain, this could be a gritty affair. While the over 2.5 goals sits just shy of a coin flip at 46%, the 51% likelihood of both teams hitting the back of the net suggests a cagey yet competitive match.
In the betting realm, the sharpest angle lies in the potential upset. Despite the statistical lean toward FC St. Pauli, the value on a Furth win at Pinnacle provides an intriguing shot for the bold punter, especially if you're banking on the unpredictable nature of football to tip the balance.
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
The teams in numbers
| Performance | St. Pauli | Greuther Fürth |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 70 | 37 |
| xPoints | 55.9 | 43.7 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| Playing style | St. Pauli | Greuther Fürth |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.57 | 0.43 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.77 |
| xTA per match | 0.72 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 35 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 276 | 333 |
| Passes against per match | 342 | 372 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.3 | 19.7 |
| Long balls per match | 25 | 28 |
| Set pieces | St. Pauli | Greuther Fürth |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.1 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 4.8 | 4.6 |
| Corners against per match | 4.5 | 5.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| Other | St. Pauli | Greuther Fürth |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | St. Pauli | Silas Joel Prufrock (Greuther Fürth) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | – | 43 |
| Save % | – | 71% |
| xG prevented | – | 42% |
| Claims | – | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins St. Pauli vs Greuther Fürth according to our model?
The model gives St. Pauli a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: St. Pauli 43%, draw 28%, Greuther Fürth 29%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.