2. BundesligaMDCC-Arena, Magdeburg20°8 km/hUpdated
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MagdeburgPossession control
Eintracht BraunschweigPossession controlMagdeburg – Eintracht Braunschweig · 2. Bundesliga
Magdeburg- Mateusz ZukowskiFxG 0.56 · xT 0.05
- Barış-Fahri AtikLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.17
- Laurin UlrichRWxG 0.1 · xT 0.11
Eintracht Braunschweig- Christian ContehFxG 0.09 · xT 0.15
- Sven KöhlerCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
- Erencan YardımcıFxG 0.26 · xT -0.01
Match prediction: Magdeburg – Eintracht Braunschweig
Predicted score matrix
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.1-26%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,9Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Eintracht Braunschweig27% probability@4.30PinnacleEV+17%
- X · Draw26% probability@3.87PinnacleEV+0%
- Under 2.546% probability@2.19PinnacleEV+0%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Magdeburg | X | 2 · Eintracht Braunschweig |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.75 | EV+ 0% 3.87 | EV+ 17% 4.30 |
Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:03
Analysis: Magdeburg – Eintracht Braunschweig
Erik Lindberg · · How the predictions work
Two points separate 1. FC Magdeburg and Eintracht Braunschweig on the table, but there’s more than just the standings at play here. The expected goals (xG) metrics whisper a tale of similar trajectories diverging at key moments. Magdeburg's xG of 1.5 per match and Braunschweig's 1.2 suggest an edge for the home side, yet their xGA numbers (1.6 vs 1.5) reveal defensive vulnerabilities that might temper confidence.
1. FC Magdeburg, buoyed by a possession-heavy approach, has a slight historical edge, winning two of their four encounters since 2023. However, the model sees their current form as a delicate edge, giving them a 47% chance of victory. The 1-1 scoreline, the most probable outcome at 12%, indicates a tightly contested affair with goals on both sides.
Eintracht Braunschweig enters with a touch of value floating in their corner. While they lag slightly behind in points, their xPoints suggest they could be punching above their weight. The Pinnacle odds of 4.3 offer a tantalizing 17% value edge for those with a keen eye for potential upsets — the kind of risk that might just pay off in a match where the margins are razor-thin.
The over/under calculations paint a picture of modest fireworks. With a 54% likelihood of surpassing 2.5 goals and a 56% chance for both teams to find the net, the match leans towards action, but not extravagance. Yet, the under 2.5 goals bet at odds of 2.19 with Pinnacle also teases, carrying neutral value at 46%.
In the end, it’s a dance on a knife's edge. The shrewd bettor might see the 2-1 to Magdeburg as the most plausible conclusion, respecting both form and fortune. But for those enticed by the lure of value, the allure of backing an away win at 4.3 holds the sharpest edge.
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesHead-to-head based on 2. Bundesliga data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Magdeburg | Eintracht Braunschweig |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39 | 37 |
| xPoints | 43 | 46.3 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| Playing style | Magdeburg | Eintracht Braunschweig |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.52 | 0.44 |
| xT per match | 1 | 0.74 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.98 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 382 | 284 |
| Passes against per match | 305 | 390 |
| Switches of play per match | 43 | 20 |
| Long balls per match | 47 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Magdeburg | Eintracht Braunschweig |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Corners per match | 5.2 | 4.7 |
| Corners against per match | 4.8 | 5.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.62 |
| Other | Magdeburg | Eintracht Braunschweig |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.78 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Dominik Reimann (Magdeburg) | Ron-Thorben Hoffmann (Eintracht Braunschweig) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 109 | 87 |
| Save % | 66% | 63% |
| xG prevented | 41% | 40% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig according to our model?
The model gives Magdeburg a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Magdeburg 47%, draw 26%, Eintracht Braunschweig 27%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.