Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

2. Bundesliga9 August 2026Max-Morlock-Stadion, Nürnberg26°14 km/h

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NürnbergPossession control

3–0

Dynamo DresdenPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Nürnberg (43%)

1 · Nürnberg 43%X 25%32% Dynamo Dresden · 2

43%

25%

32%

Analysis: Nürnberg – Dynamo Dresden

Erik Lindberg · 7 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Five matches unbeaten for 1. FC Nurnberg paints the picture of a squad hitting its stride just when it matters most. Positioned with 46 points against Dynamo Dresden's 41, they not only lead on the scoreboard but also in expected points at 48.4 to 46.6. The model leans towards a Nurnberg win at 43%, and given recent form, it's hard to argue against them coming out on top.

Dynamo Dresden, however, can't be discounted, holding their own with a 32% chance of victory. Even in a small head-to-head sample of just two matches since 2023, the teams have traded blows, each claiming one win. With both teams favoring possession control, expect a tactical battle in midfield, where the balance of play will likely be decided.

The expected goals tally of 1.55 for Nurnberg against Dresden's 1.23 suggests a tight encounter, with the most likely scorelines being a cagey 1-1 or a narrow 1-0 or 2-1 in favor of Nurnberg, each with 9% probability. The market slightly favors more than 2.5 goals at 52%, but considering both teams' controlled approaches, goals might be at a premium.

Despite the over/under market predictions, there's a notable value (EV+) in betting under 2.5 goals. Pinnacle offers odds of 2.12, which the model rates at a 48% probability, presenting a 1% edge for the shrewd punter. With Nurnberg’s defensive solidity and both teams' penchant for possession, the under seems an astute angle, especially when weather conditions — if impactful — already factor into these numbers.

So, as the dust settles on this clash, look for a hard-fought Nurnberg victory, possibly 1-0, with the under 2.5 emerging as the sharpest play for those seeking value in a tactical showdown.

Nürnberg

Form DWDWD

League ranking xG #9xGA #7xT #9xP/match #7Points #8

Key players

Piet ScobelFxG 0.56 · xT 0.01
Rafael LubachLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.04
Julian JustvanRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.18

Dynamo Dresden

Form WLWLW

League ranking xG #11xGA #11xT #14xP/match #8Points #11

Key players

Vincent VermeijFxG 0.28 · xT 0.00
Ben BobzienLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.06
Jonas SternerRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.11

Final score

3 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Nürnberg 43% · Draw 25% · Dynamo Dresden 32%

Match prediction: Nürnberg – Dynamo Dresden

Predicted score matrix

Dynamo Dresden →

Nürnberg →

0–06.6%

0–17.3%

0–24.7%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.8%

1–09.3%

1–112.2%

1–27.3%

1–33.0%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.5%

2–19.2%

2–25.6%

2–32.3%

2–4+0.9%

3–03.9%

3–14.7%

3–22.9%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.5%

4+–02.1%

4+–12.6%

4+–21.6%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-09%
3.2-19%
4.2-07%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,55–1,23

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

@2.10

Over 2,552%

@1.77

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Nürnberg or draw (1X)70%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Nürnberg or draw (1X)70%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Julian Justvan to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Julian Justvan to score23%
Robert Wagner to be booked26%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Nürnberg	X	2 · Dynamo Dresden
Pinnacle	2.28	3.55	3.10

Odds updated 9 Aug, 10:09

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 4 August — the odds have shortened from 2.23 to 2.10 (−6%).

1+10 %

46 %41 %

2.07 → 2.28

X-7 %

28 %23 %

3.81 → 3.55

2-3 %

33 %28 %

3.18 → 3.10

Over 2,5+8 %

58 %53 %

1.65 → 1.77

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Nürnberg 1Draw 0Dynamo Dresden 1

Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on 2. Bundesliga data since 2023.

Key facts

1. FC Nurnberg are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Nürnberg

Dynamo Dresden

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Nürnberg (47–45)

Dynamo Dresden (54–53)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Nürnberg

Dynamo Dresden

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Nürnberg

Dynamo Dresden

The teams in numbers

Performance	Nürnberg	Dynamo Dresden
Points	46	41
xPoints	48.4	46.6
xG per match	1.5	1.4
xGA per match	1.4	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.23

Playing style	Nürnberg	Dynamo Dresden
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.3
Field tilt	0.5	0.45
xT per match	1	0.86
xTA per match	0.89	0.97
Won balls, offensive half	23	26
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.34	0.33
Entries into the box per match	13	11
Entries into the box against	13	13
Pass completion %	0.76	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.7
Passes per match	340	360
Passes against per match	353	363
Switches of play per match	24.7	15.7
Long balls per match	31	27

Set pieces	Nürnberg	Dynamo Dresden
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.05
Corners per match	5.2	5
Corners against per match	4.6	5.7
xG per corner	0.05	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.07	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.49	0.53

Other	Nürnberg	Dynamo Dresden
Throw-in control	0.7	0.73

The goalkeepers	Jan Reichert (Nürnberg)	Tim Schreiber (Dynamo Dresden)
Saves	102	70
Save %	70%	62%
xG prevented	51%	35%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Nürnberg

Fixtures, form & tips

Dynamo Dresden

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden according to our model?

The model gives Nürnberg a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nürnberg 43%, draw 25%, Dynamo Dresden 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.