Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

2. Bundesliga9 August 2026Max-Morlock-Stadion, Nürnberg24°11 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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NürnbergPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Nürnberg (43%)

Dynamo DresdenPossession control

1 · Nürnberg 43%X 25%32% Dynamo Dresden · 2

43%

25%

32%

Nürnberg

Form DWDWD

League ranking xG #9xGA #7xT #9xP/match #7Points #8

Key players

Piet ScobelFxG 0.56 · xT 0.01
Rafael LubachLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.04
Julian JustvanRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.18

Dynamo Dresden

Form WLWLW

League ranking xG #11xGA #11xT #14xP/match #8Points #11

Key players

Vincent VermeijFxG 0.28 · xT 0
Ben BobzienLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.06
Jonas SternerRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Nürnberg – Dynamo Dresden

Predicted score matrix

Dynamo Dresden →

Nürnberg →

0–06.6%

0–17.3%

0–24.7%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.8%

1–09.3%

1–112.2%

1–27.3%

1–33.0%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.5%

2–19.2%

2–25.6%

2–32.3%

2–4+0.9%

3–03.9%

3–14.7%

3–22.9%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.5%

4+–02.1%

4+–12.6%

4+–21.6%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-09%
3.2-19%
4.2-07%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,55–1,23

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

@2.23EV+6%

Over 2,552%

@1.65

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.548% probability@2.23PinnacleEV+6%
2 · Dynamo Dresden32% probability@3.18PinnacleEV+2%

Bookmaker	1 · Nürnberg	X	2 · Dynamo Dresden
Pinnacle	2.07	3.81	EV+ 2% 3.18

Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:04

Analysis: Nürnberg – Dynamo Dresden

Erik Lindberg · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Forty-six points to forty-one: that’s the slight but telling edge 1. FC Nurnberg holds over Dynamo Dresden in the 2. Bundesliga standings. These figures set the stage for a clash where every detail matters. 1. FC Nurnberg have been a model of consistency, unbeaten in their last five league encounters. They hold a slim advantage not just in points but also in the expected metrics — xPoints, xG, and xGA. The model heavily leans towards a Nurnberg victory, pegging the probability at 43%.

1. FC Nurnberg, favoring possession control football, will likely look to dominate the tempo against a Dynamo Dresden side that shares a similar tactical philosophy. The head-to-head since 2023 reads one win apiece, but the xG numbers hint at Nurnberg having the upper hand. Expected goals for Nurnberg stand at 1.55 compared to Dresden's 1.23, suggesting that even in a closely matched duel, Nurnberg’s offensive machinery might have just a bit more firepower.

The match might not explode with goals. Despite the over 2.5 goals market tipping slightly at 52%, the value lies elsewhere. Pinnacle offers odds of 2.23 on under 2.5 goals, and with the model rating it a 48% chance, there's a 6% value edge. Both team playstyles suggest a chess match rather than a shootout, reinforcing the argument for a lower-scoring affair.

Dynamo Dresden, with a 32% chance of snatching a victory, have odds of 3.18 with Pinnacle, presenting a modest 2% value edge. Yet, given Nurnberg's current form, the likelihood of them edging out a 1-0 or 2-1 victory appears more plausible. The most probable scoreline according to the model is a 1-1 draw at 12%, but the scales tip slightly towards a Nurnberg 1-0 win at 9%.

In this nuanced battle, the sharpest betting angle is backing under 2.5 goals at 2.23. With both sides preferring to control possession and Nurnberg’s sturdy unbeaten streak, expect a tactical contest where goals come at a premium.

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Nürnberg 1Draw 0Dynamo Dresden 1

Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on 2. Bundesliga data since 2023.

Key facts

1. FC Nurnberg are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Nürnberg

Dynamo Dresden

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Nürnberg (47–45)

Dynamo Dresden (54–53)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Nürnberg

Dynamo Dresden

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Nürnberg

Dynamo Dresden

The teams in numbers

Performance	Nürnberg	Dynamo Dresden
Points	46	41
xPoints	48.4	46.6
xG per match	1.5	1.4
xGA per match	1.4	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.23

Playing style	Nürnberg	Dynamo Dresden
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.3
Field tilt	0.5	0.45
xT per match	1	0.86
xTA per match	0.89	0.97
Won balls, offensive half	23	26
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.34	0.33
Entries into the box per match	13	11
Entries into the box against	13	13
Pass completion %	0.76	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.7
Passes per match	340	360
Passes against per match	353	363
Switches of play per match	24.7	15.7
Long balls per match	31	27

Set pieces	Nürnberg	Dynamo Dresden
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.05
Corners per match	5.2	5
Corners against per match	4.6	5.7
xG per corner	0.05	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.07	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.49	0.53

Other	Nürnberg	Dynamo Dresden
Throw-in control	0.7	0.73

The goalkeepers	Jan Reichert (Nürnberg)	Tim Schreiber (Dynamo Dresden)
Saves	102	70
Save %	70%	62%
xG prevented	51%	35%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden according to our model?

The model gives Nürnberg a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nürnberg 43%, draw 25%, Dynamo Dresden 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.