2. BundesligaVonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum19°0,1 mm7 km/hUpdated
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BochumLow block & direct
Hertha BerlinPossession controlBochum – Hertha Berlin · 2. Bundesliga
Bochum- Philipp HofmannFxG 0.31 · xT 0
- Maximilian WittekLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.16
- Gerrit HoltmannLWxG 0.2 · xT 0.23
Hertha Berlin- Fabian ReeseLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.26
- Paul SeguinCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.06
- Luca SchulerFxG 0.42 · xT -0.02
Match prediction: Bochum – Hertha Berlin
Predicted score matrix
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.2-08%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,7Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Bochum43% probability@2.32PinnacleEV+0%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Bochum | X | 2 · Hertha Berlin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | EV+ 0% 2.32 | 3.53 | 2.89 |
Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:03
Analysis: Bochum – Hertha Berlin
Sofia Andersson · · How the predictions work
Bochum, with 44 points and a home advantage, find themselves in a peculiar situation. Despite trailing Hertha BSC Berlin by seven points, the underlying metrics tilt the scales in Bochum's favor. Their xPoints suggest they should be sitting on 53.0, a figure that stands firm against Hertha's calculated 46.4. This discrepancy hints at potential undervaluation in Bochum's current standing. Add to that, their xG per match of 1.5 comfortably eclipses Hertha's 1.4, suggesting a propensity to carve out more scoring opportunities.
Bochum's playing style, characterized by low defense and direct play, might just be the kryptonite to Hertha's possession-based approach. In their head-to-head since 2023, Bochum hasn't tasted defeat, clinching a win and a draw. Such historical resilience against Hertha cannot be ignored, especially when you consider the psychological edge that comes with it.
43% — that's the probability the model assigns to a Bochum victory, with the most likely outcomes being either a 1-1 draw or a 1-0 win for the hosts. An over 2.5 goals chance hangs at 51%, a slight edge that doesn't quite scream a goal fest but suggests there's room for excitement. Yet, with both teams to score pegged at 55%, a close contest with goals from both sides remains on the cards.
Hertha BSC Berlin, while possessing more points, faces an uphill battle in dismantling Bochum's tactical setup. Their better points tally is undermined by their xGA per match of 1.7, a defensive frailty Bochum will be keen to exploit. The odds, however, might just be your best guide here. Pinnacle offers Bochum at 2.32 for the home win, echoing the model's 43% probability. It's not a massive edge, but for those with a penchant for value, it might be the sweetest spot to land your bet. Expect a tight affair, possibly ending 1-1, with that over 2.5 goals mark remaining a tantalizing prospect.
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesHead-to-head based on 2. Bundesliga data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Bochum | Hertha Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44 | 51 |
| xPoints | 53 | 46.4 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | Bochum | Hertha Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.5 | 0.48 |
| xT per match | 0.89 | 0.93 |
| xTA per match | 0.96 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 311 | 340 |
| Passes against per match | 385 | 362 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.1 | 24.1 |
| Long balls per match | 38 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Bochum | Hertha Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 4.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.9 | 5.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.59 |
| Other | Bochum | Hertha Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Timo Phil Horn (Bochum) | Tjark Ernst (Hertha Berlin) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 111 | 101 |
| Save % | 71% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 46% | 40% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Bochum vs Hertha Berlin according to our model?
The model gives Bochum a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bochum 43%, draw 28%, Hertha Berlin 29%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.