Kashiwa Reysol vs V-Varen Nagasaki: Prediction & Odds (21 Aug 2026)

J1 League21 August 2026Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium, Kashiwa26°19,6 mm11 km/h

Läs på svenska

Kashiwa ReysolBalanced & physical

V-Varen NagasakiPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Kashiwa Reysol (52%)Best value by the model: 2 · V-Varen Nagasaki @ 5.07 (+13 %)

1 · Kashiwa Reysol 52%X 26%22% V-Varen Nagasaki · 2

52%

26%

22%

Analysis: Kashiwa Reysol – V-Varen Nagasaki

Oscar Nilsson · 17 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Eight straight wins for Kashiwa Reysol paint a picture of a team riding a wave of momentum. This impressive streak is backed by a consistent scoring record, with goals in nine consecutive league matches. Facing off against V-Varen Nagasaki, the model gives Kashiwa Reysol a 52% chance to secure another victory, while V-Varen Nagasaki are pegged at a modest 22% probability. It's hard to look past the home side for this one.

Kashiwa Reysol's expected goals (xG) of 1.59 against V-Varen Nagasaki's 1.03 further underscores their edge. The most likely outcomes, a 1-1 draw or a 1-0 win for Kashiwa Reysol, suggest a tight affair. Yet, with an over 2.5 goals probability sitting at 49% and both teams to score at 52%, expect a game where goals aren't necessarily free-flowing but not entirely absent either.

V-Varen Nagasaki's style of possession control may be put to the test against Kashiwa Reysol's balanced and physical approach. V-Varen Nagasaki's xG per match of 0.75 is indicative of their struggle to convert possession into tangible threats, especially against a side like Kashiwa Reysol, who have the clear edge in xPoints and points tallies.

Kashiwa Reysol's recent form and statistical superiority make them favorites, but there's a fascinating value angle for the bold punter. Odds of 5.07 with Pinnacle, 4.9 with Betsafe, and Betsson for an away win imply a substantial edge over the model's estimation of a 22% chance. While the bookmakers see Kashiwa Reysol as favorites, those feeling adventurous might find those odds for V-Varen Nagasaki tempting enough to wager on a surprise result.

Kashiwa Reysol

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #7xGA #8xT #17xP/match #7Points #2

Key players

Koki KumasakaCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.03
Tojiro KuboRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.04
Taiyo KogaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10

V-Varen Nagasaki

Form WL

League ranking xG #18xGA #9xT #14xP/match #15Points #7

Key players

Thiago Santos SantanaFxG 0.86 · xT 0.06
Hijiri OnagaLWxG 0.00 · xT 0.26
Motoki HasegawaRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Kashiwa Reysol – V-Varen Nagasaki

Predicted score matrix

V-Varen Nagasaki →

Kashiwa Reysol →

0–07.6%

0–17.1%

0–23.9%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.4%

1–011.2%

1–112.3%

1–26.2%

1–32.1%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.2%

2–19.5%

2–24.9%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.5%

3–04.9%

3–15.0%

3–22.6%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.8%

4+–12.8%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.2-09%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,59–1,03

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.99EV+2%

Over 2,549%

@1.83

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Kashiwa Reysol to win52%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Kashiwa Reysol to win52%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Yuki Kakita to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Yuki Kakita to score29%
Takuma Ominami to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · V-Varen Nagasaki22% probability@5.07PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
2 · V-Varen Nagasaki22% probability@4.90BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
2 · V-Varen Nagasaki22% probability@4.90BetssonEV+9%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Kashiwa Reysol	X	2 · V-Varen Nagasaki
Betsafe	1.62	3.70	EV+ 9% 4.90
Betsson	1.62	3.70	EV+ 9% 4.90
Nordicbet	1.62	3.70	EV+ 9% 4.90
Pinnacle	1.68	3.77	EV+ 13% 5.07

Odds updated 17 Aug, 18:35

Statistics

Key facts

Kashiwa Reysol come into this round on 8 straight wins.
Kashiwa Reysol have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Kashiwa Reysol

V-Varen Nagasaki

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Kashiwa Reysol (5–2)

V-Varen Nagasaki (2–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Kashiwa Reysol

V-Varen Nagasaki

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Kashiwa Reysol

V-Varen Nagasaki

The teams in numbers

Performance	Kashiwa Reysol	V-Varen Nagasaki
Points	6	3
xPoints	3.2	2
xG per match	1.4	0.75
xGA per match	1.2	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.12	0.21

Playing style	Kashiwa Reysol	V-Varen Nagasaki
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.64	0.33
xT per match	0.76	0.85
xTA per match	0.91	0.97
Won balls, offensive half	20	20
Pressing intensity	0.2	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.15	0.32
Entries into the box per match	12	8
Entries into the box against	9	15
Pass completion %	0.86	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.69
Passes per match	596	337
Passes against per match	395	352
Switches of play per match	40.3	15.5
Long balls per match	32	26

Set pieces	Kashiwa Reysol	V-Varen Nagasaki
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	3	4
Corners against per match	4	4.5
xG per corner	0	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.67	0.25
First touch, defensive corners %	0.86	0.67

Other	Kashiwa Reysol	V-Varen Nagasaki
Throw-in control	0.71	0.69

The goalkeepers	Wataru Harada (Kashiwa Reysol)	Masaaki Goto (V-Varen Nagasaki)
Saves	5	4
Save %	100%	67%
xG prevented	100%	23%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Kashiwa Reysol vs V-Varen Nagasaki according to our model?

The model gives Kashiwa Reysol a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kashiwa Reysol 52%, draw 26%, V-Varen Nagasaki 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.