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Nagoya GrampusPossession control
Shimizu S-PulsePossession controlNagoya Grampus – Shimizu S-Pulse · J1 League
Nagoya Grampus- Mateus dos Santos CastroFxG 0.22 · xT 0.08
- Yuya YamagishiFxG 0.24 · xT 0.09
- Sho InagakiCMxG 0.26 · xT 0.07
Shimizu S-Pulse- Toshiki TakahashiFxG 0.44 · xT -0.01
- Koya KitagawaFxG 0.42 · xT 0.04
- Reon YamaharaLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.22
Match prediction: Nagoya Grampus – Shimizu S-Pulse
Predicted score matrix
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.0-18%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,7Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Shimizu S-Pulse30% probability@3.35PinnacleEV+1%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Nagoya Grampus | X | 2 · Shimizu S-Pulse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.06 | 3.64 | EV+ 1% 3.35 |
Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:04
Analysis: Nagoya Grampus – Shimizu S-Pulse
Erik Lindberg · · How the predictions work
Three crushing defeats in a row have left Shimizu S-Pulse scrambling for answers, and their visit to Nagoya Grampus might present more questions than solutions. Despite holding a narrow points edge over Nagoya this season, Shimizu's recent form and defensive frailties, conceding an xGA of 1.5 per match, suggest they might struggle. Nagoya, meanwhile, have been a model of balance, controlling possession and boasting an xGA of just 1.2, making them a formidable opponent on home turf.
Nagoya Grampus enter this clash with confidence, having not tasted defeat against Shimizu S-Pulse in their past two encounters this year. The head-to-head tilt, combined with the model's 43% probability favoring a Nagoya win, paints a picture of likely home dominance. However, it's telling that the most likely scorelines hover around a draw or a narrow victory: 1-1 stands at 12%, with a 1-0 win for Nagoya at 10%. Such predictions lean towards a tight match, possibly edging under the 2.5 goals mark, despite the even 50% chance given for over.
Expect Nagoya to leverage their possession control to stifle Shimizu's advances, but the rain forecast could throw a wet wrench into the tactical chess game. Both teams share a penchant for keeping the ball, which might turn the match into a midfield battle, limiting clear-cut chances. The model's expected goals (xG) tally of 1.51 for Nagoya against 1.16 for Shimizu further suggests a slight edge to the hosts, though not an overwhelming one.
Shimizu S-Pulse, despite their slump, present a curious betting angle. Pinnacle offers odds of 3.35 for an away win, providing just enough value for the adventurous punter, with a 1% edge over the model's 30% probability. For those daring to buck the form book, this might be the hidden gem of the matchup. But caution is warranted: the value here lies in the risk, not the expectation.
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesHead-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Shimizu S-Pulse have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Nagoya Grampus | Shimizu S-Pulse |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43 | 44 |
| xPoints | 56.2 | 45.2 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | Nagoya Grampus | Shimizu S-Pulse |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.39 | 0.5 |
| xT per match | 0.85 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.8 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 14 |
| Passes per match | 311 | 382 |
| Passes against per match | 357 | 358 |
| Set pieces | Nagoya Grampus | Shimizu S-Pulse |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 4.1 | 4.9 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 4.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Other | Nagoya Grampus | Shimizu S-Pulse |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| The goalkeepers | Yohei Takeda (Nagoya Grampus) | Yuya Oki (Shimizu S-Pulse) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 41 | 67 |
| Save % | 60% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 40% | 42% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Nagoya Grampus vs Shimizu S-Pulse according to our model?
The model gives Nagoya Grampus a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nagoya Grampus 43%, draw 27%, Shimizu S-Pulse 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.