J1 LeagueBest Denki Stadium, Fukuoka30°14 km/h

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    Avispa FukuokaAvispa FukuokaLow block & direct
    0–1
    Vissel KobeVissel KobeCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 2 · Vissel Kobe (45%)

    Avispa Fukuoka vs Vissel Kobe · J1 League

    1 · Avispa Fukuoka 24%X 31%45% Vissel Kobe · 2

    Analysis: Avispa Fukuoka – Vissel Kobe

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Six meetings between Avispa Fukuoka and Vissel Kobe since 2023 have tilted heavily in favour of the latter, with Vissel Kobe boasting four wins to Fukuoka's single triumph. Yet, the numbers framing this match indicate more than just past dominance. Vissel Kobe enters the clash with a model-backed probability of victory standing at 45%, underscoring their current edge over Fukuoka's 24% likelihood of securing a win.

    Avispa Fukuoka, positioned on 48 points, might seem underdogs here, especially against Vissel Kobe's 64-point run. But delve deeper, and you’ll find their xPoints are slightly more flattering at 52.3, hinting at a side that perhaps hasn't converted potential into reality. Expect Fukuoka to deploy their low defence and direct style, countering Kobe's preference for counter-attacks and crosses. The expected goals mirror a closely contested affair: Fukuoka's 0.98 to Kobe's 1.18 — a narrow margin that could well define the outcome.

    Weather may not play a role here, but scoring patterns might. The stats suggest a low-scoring duel: only 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% probability of both teams finding the net. The most likely scorelines feature the conservative 1-1 and 0-1, with just 14% and 13% respective probabilities. It sets up a tense battle, where a solitary goal might swing the result.

    Vissel Kobe seems the safer bet, but value hunters could look at another angle. Pinnacle offers Fukuoka at odds of 4.51, presenting a tempting 10% edge against the model's 24% probability for a home win. This is where the bold might stake their claim, even if the conservative might lean towards a cautious 0-1 prediction in Kobe's favour.

    Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka
    Form DWDWL
    League ranking xG #12xGA #8xT #9xP/match #9Points #12
    Key players
    • Wellington Luís de SousaFxG 0.38 · xT 0.08
    • Tomoya MikiCMxG 0.26 · xT 0.11
    • Kazuya KonnoRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.16
    Vissel KobeVissel Kobe
    Form DDDDL
    League ranking xG #5xGA #1xT #6xP/match #2Points #5
    Key players
    • Daiju SasakiFxG 0.20 · xT 0.12
    • Yuya OsakoFxG 0.49 · xT 0.13
    • Takahiro OgiharaCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
    Final score
    0 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Avispa Fukuoka 24% · Draw 31% · Vissel Kobe 45%

    Match prediction: Avispa Fukuoka – Vissel Kobe

    Predicted score matrix

    Vissel Kobe →
    Avispa Fukuoka →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–011.9%
    0–113.2%
    0–28.0%
    0–33.2%
    0–4+1.2%
    1
    1–010.9%
    1–113.7%
    1–27.9%
    1–33.1%
    1–4+1.2%
    2
    2–05.5%
    2–16.5%
    2–23.9%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–01.8%
    3–12.1%
    3–21.3%
    3–30.5%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–00.5%
    4+–10.6%
    4+–20.4%
    4+–30.1%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-114%
    2. 2.0-113%
    3. 3.0-012%
    4. 4.1-011%
    5. 5.0-28%
    Expected goals
    0,98–1,18
    Both teams to score
    44%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,2
    Under 2,563%
    –
    Over 2,537%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Vissel Kobe or draw (X2)70%
    • Under 3.5 goals83%

    Combined probability

    58%

    Fair odds

    1.73

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Vissel Kobe or draw (X2)70%
    • Under 2.5 goals63%
    • Yuya Osako to score27%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score44%
    • Over 2.5 goals37%
    • Yuya Osako to score27%
    • Keiya Shiihashi to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Vissel Kobe45% probability@2.32PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Avispa FukuokaX2 · Vissel Kobe
    Pinnacle3.653.03
    EV+ 4%
    2.32

    Odds updated 8 Aug, 10:09

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards the draw since 4 August — the odds have shortened from 3.26 to 3.03 (−7%).

    1-7 %
    29 %19 %

    3.91 → 3.65

    X-7 %
    35 %25 %

    3.26 → 3.03

    2+16 %
    51 %41 %

    2.00 → 2.32

    Pinnacle · 17 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    6 matches
    Avispa Fukuoka 1Draw 1Vissel Kobe 4
    Goals: 1–7 (⌀ 1,3)

    Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Vissel Kobe dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Avispa Fukuoka
    Vissel Kobe
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Avispa Fukuoka (34–38)
    Vissel Kobe (46–33)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Avispa Fukuoka
    Tomoya Miki: 219 passningar, xT 0.34MikiTatsuki Nara: 193 passningar, xT 0.38NaraTomoya Ando: 176 passningar, xT 0.2AndoDaiki Matsuoka: 170 passningar, xT 0.19MatsuokaYota Maejima: 157 passningar, xT 0.26MaejimaYuma Obata: 132 passningar, xT 0.34ObataYu Hashimoto: 94 passningar, xT 0.41HashimotoShintaro Nago: 91 passningar, xT 0.45NagoJurato Ikeda: 63 passningar, xT 0.12IkedaMasato Shigemi: 51 passningar, xT 0.05ShigemiShosei Usui: 42 passningar, xT -0.01Usui
    Vissel Kobe
    Takahiro Ogihara: 249 passningar, xT 0.87OgiharaMatheus Soares Thuler: 219 passningar, xT 0.53ThulerTetsushi Yamakawa: 184 passningar, xT 0.46YamakawaKatsuya Nagato: 170 passningar, xT 0.7NagatoDaiya Maekawa: 139 passningar, xT 0.21MaekawaNanasei Iino: 120 passningar, xT 1.05IinoTaisei Miyashiro: 118 passningar, xT 0.38MiyashiroYuya Osako: 105 passningar, xT 0.75OsakoYoshinori Muto: 105 passningar, xT 0.56MutoDaiju Sasaki: 89 passningar, xT 1SasakiYosuke Ideguchi: 77 passningar, xT 0.07Ideguchi
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Avispa Fukuoka
    Tomoya Miki: 219 passningar, xT 0.34MikiTatsuki Nara: 193 passningar, xT 0.38NaraTomoya Ando: 176 passningar, xT 0.2AndoDaiki Matsuoka: 170 passningar, xT 0.19MatsuokaYota Maejima: 157 passningar, xT 0.26MaejimaYuma Obata: 132 passningar, xT 0.34ObataYu Hashimoto: 94 passningar, xT 0.41HashimotoShintaro Nago: 91 passningar, xT 0.45NagoJurato Ikeda: 63 passningar, xT 0.12IkedaMasato Shigemi: 51 passningar, xT 0.05ShigemiShosei Usui: 42 passningar, xT -0.01Usui
    Vissel Kobe
    Takahiro Ogihara: 249 passningar, xT 0.87OgiharaMatheus Soares Thuler: 219 passningar, xT 0.53ThulerTetsushi Yamakawa: 184 passningar, xT 0.46YamakawaKatsuya Nagato: 170 passningar, xT 0.7NagatoDaiya Maekawa: 139 passningar, xT 0.21MaekawaNanasei Iino: 120 passningar, xT 1.05IinoTaisei Miyashiro: 118 passningar, xT 0.38MiyashiroYuya Osako: 105 passningar, xT 0.75OsakoYoshinori Muto: 105 passningar, xT 0.56MutoDaiju Sasaki: 89 passningar, xT 1SasakiYosuke Ideguchi: 77 passningar, xT 0.07Ideguchi

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceAvispa FukuokaVissel Kobe
    Points4864
    xPoints52.365.4
    xG per match1.31.4
    xGA per match1.20.89
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.20.3
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.260.18
    Playing styleAvispa FukuokaVissel Kobe
    Build-up efficiency0.340.33
    Field tilt0.480.57
    xT per match0.91
    xTA per match0.870.79
    Won balls, offensive half2936
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.270.35
    Entries into the box per match1215
    Entries into the box against1110
    Passes per match309312
    Passes against per match376271
    Set piecesAvispa FukuokaVissel Kobe
    xG from free kicks0.090.09
    Corners per match4.15.7
    Corners against per match3.94
    xG per corner0.050.05
    xGA per corner against0.040.05
    OtherAvispa FukuokaVissel Kobe
    Throw-in control0.680.67
    The goalkeepersYuma Obata (Avispa Fukuoka)Daiya Maekawa (Vissel Kobe)
    Saves5683
    Save %74%72%
    xG prevented51%58%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Avispa Fukuoka
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Vissel Kobe
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Avispa Fukuoka vs Vissel Kobe according to our model?

    The model gives Vissel Kobe a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Avispa Fukuoka 24%, draw 31%, Vissel Kobe 45%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 37% and under at 63%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.