Avispa Fukuoka vs Vissel Kobe: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

J1 League8 August 2026Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka31°1,5 mm20 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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Avispa FukuokaLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Vissel Kobe (45%)

Vissel KobeCounter-attacks & crosses

1 · Avispa Fukuoka 24%X 31%45% Vissel Kobe · 2

24%

31%

45%

Avispa Fukuoka

Form DWDWL

League ranking xG #12xGA #8xT #9xP/match #9Points #12

Key players

Wellington Luís de SousaFxG 0.38 · xT 0.08
Tomoya MikiCMxG 0.26 · xT 0.11
Kazuya KonnoRWxG 0.2 · xT 0.16

Vissel Kobe

Form DDDDL

League ranking xG #5xGA #1xT #6xP/match #2Points #5

Key players

Daiju SasakiFxG 0.2 · xT 0.12
Yuya OsakoFxG 0.49 · xT 0.13
Takahiro OgiharaCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Avispa Fukuoka – Vissel Kobe

Predicted score matrix

Vissel Kobe →

Avispa Fukuoka →

0–011.9%

0–113.2%

0–28.0%

0–33.2%

0–4+1.2%

1–010.9%

1–113.7%

1–27.9%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.2%

2–05.5%

2–16.5%

2–23.9%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.6%

3–01.8%

3–12.1%

3–21.3%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.2%

4+–00.5%

4+–10.6%

4+–20.4%

4+–30.1%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.0-113%
3.0-012%
4.1-011%
5.0-28%

Expected goals

0,98–1,18

Both teams to score

44%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,2

012%

124%

227%

319%

410%

Under 2,563%

–

Over 2,537%

–

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw31% probability@3.26PinnacleEV+1%

Bookmaker	1 · Avispa Fukuoka	X	2 · Vissel Kobe
Pinnacle	3.91	EV+ 1% 3.26	2.00

Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:04

Analysis: Avispa Fukuoka – Vissel Kobe

Marcus Johansson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Four wins to one. That’s how decisively Vissel Kobe have bossed their recent encounters with Avispa Fukuoka. It’s a dominance mirrored by their current standing, as they sit proudly with 64 points to Avispa's 48. Even their expected points (xPoints) of 65.4 edge out Avispa’s 52.3, giving further weight to the visitors' supremacy. This isn’t just about numbers on a page; it’s a real reflection of how these squads currently measure up.

Avispa Fukuoka, despite the odds and stats stacked against them, have a tendency to keep things tight. Their matches since 2023 have often been low-scoring, a pattern likely to continue here. With expected goals (xG) at 0.98 for Avispa and 1.18 for Vissel Kobe, it hints at a game of few chances and even fewer goals. The model projections suggest a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome, but with only a 14% probability.

Avispa Fukuoka could aim to disrupt Vissel Kobe’s rhythm with direct play, but Vissel’s efficient counter-attacking style and preference for crosses may pierce through Avispa's defences that have a tendency to sit low. Vissel Kobe’s xGA per match stands at a solid 0.89, highlighting their defensive resilience, compared to Avispa’s leaky 1.2.

Vissel Kobe's calculated, cross-heavy approach should see them edge this tight affair, likely with a 1-0 victory, considering their historical advantage and slightly superior xG metrics. However, the astute punter might be tempted by the draw at odds of 3.26 with Pinnacle, slightly undervalued by the bookies but offering a tantalising edge. With under 2.5 goals looking likely, and both teams finding the net a mere 44% of the time, any goal might be precious.

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Avispa Fukuoka 1Draw 1Vissel Kobe 4

Goals: 1–7 (⌀ 1,3)

Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

Key facts

Vissel Kobe dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Avispa Fukuoka

Vissel Kobe

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Avispa Fukuoka (34–38)

Vissel Kobe (46–33)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Avispa Fukuoka

Vissel Kobe

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Avispa Fukuoka

Vissel Kobe

The teams in numbers

Performance	Avispa Fukuoka	Vissel Kobe
Points	48	64
xPoints	52.3	65.4
xG per match	1.3	1.4
xGA per match	1.2	0.89
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.3
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.18

Playing style	Avispa Fukuoka	Vissel Kobe
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.33
Field tilt	0.48	0.57
xT per match	0.9	1
xTA per match	0.87	0.79
Won balls, offensive half	29	36
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.35
Entries into the box per match	12	15
Entries into the box against	11	10
Passes per match	309	312
Passes against per match	376	271

Set pieces	Avispa Fukuoka	Vissel Kobe
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.09
Corners per match	4.1	5.7
Corners against per match	3.9	4
xG per corner	0.05	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.05

Other	Avispa Fukuoka	Vissel Kobe
Throw-in control	0.68	0.67

The goalkeepers	Yuma Obata (Avispa Fukuoka)	Daiya Maekawa (Vissel Kobe)
Saves	56	83
Save %	74%	72%
xG prevented	51%	58%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Avispa Fukuoka vs Vissel Kobe according to our model?

The model gives Vissel Kobe a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Avispa Fukuoka 24%, draw 31%, Vissel Kobe 45%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 37% and under at 63%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.