J1 LeagueEdion Peace Wing, Hiroshima30°11 km/hUpdated
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Sanfrecce HiroshimaPossession control
JEF United ChibaPossession controlSanfrecce Hiroshima – JEF United Chiba · J1 League
Sanfrecce Hiroshima- Sota NakamuraFxG 0.1 · xT 0.18
- Kosuke KinoshitaFxG 0.54 · xT 0.07
- Shunki HigashiLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.14
JEF United Chiba- Sota NakamuraFxG 0.1 · xT 0.18
- Kosuke KinoshitaFxG 0.54 · xT 0.07
- Shunki HigashiLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.14
Match prediction: Sanfrecce Hiroshima – JEF United Chiba
Predicted score matrix
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-012%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.1-19%
- 5.3-09%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,1Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 2.559% probability@1.79PinnacleEV+6%
- 1 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima72% probability@1.46PinnacleEV+5%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima | X | 2 · JEF United Chiba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | EV+ 5% 1.46 | 4.42 | 6.46 |
Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:04
Analysis: Sanfrecce Hiroshima – JEF United Chiba
Anna Karlsson · · How the predictions work
Sanfrecce Hiroshima have been on a meteoric rise, ploughing through their recent fixtures with a string of three consecutive victories. Their momentum at home is formidable, winning 58% of their matches from a sample of 55 games played. With the model assigning them a hefty 72% likelihood of triumphing over JEF United Chiba, it seems the hosts are set to continue their dominating spree.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima enter the fray with an aura of confidence that only a winning streak can provide. Given their expected goals tally of 2.23, the scenario paints a picture of attacking prowess, especially stark against JEF United Chiba's comparatively paltry 0.84. The most likely outcomes, 2-0 and 1-0, suggest a tactical approach where Hiroshima's control isn't just about possession but results in tangible scorelines. A 2-0 outcome, in particular, aligns with the overall 12% chance of occurrence, further reinforcing the potential for a solid Hiroshima victory.
JEF United Chiba, on the other hand, walk into a daunting fixture. With a meagre 11% probability of victory, their task appears Sisyphean. Despite sharing a possession-control playing style with Hiroshima, they lack the cutting edge in execution, which is reflected in their low expected goals. Even with a 51% chance of both teams finding the net, the odds are stacked against Chiba to break down Hiroshima's robust defence consistently enough to affect the result.
For the punters eyeing this clash, the sharpest angles lie in the over 2.5 goals market and a home win. Given a 59% probability, backing over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.787 with Pinnacle offers a 6% edge, a tantalising prospect for those craving value. Similarly, backing Sanfrecce Hiroshima to continue their streak at odds of 1.458 comes with a 5% edge. Both present compelling opportunities to align financial instincts with the statistical narrative.
Statistics
Key facts
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima come into this round on 3 straight wins.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 58% of their home matches all-time (55 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | JEF United Chiba |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 68 | 68 |
| xPoints | 67.6 | 67.6 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Playing style | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | JEF United Chiba |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 35 | 35 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 10 |
| Passes per match | 353 | 353 |
| Passes against per match | 316 | 316 |
| Set pieces | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | JEF United Chiba |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| Corners per match | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| Corners against per match | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Other | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | JEF United Chiba |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| The goalkeepers | Keisuke Osako (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) | JEF United Chiba |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 86 | – |
| Save % | 78% | – |
| xG prevented | 47% | – |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | – |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs JEF United Chiba according to our model?
The model gives Sanfrecce Hiroshima a 72% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 72%, draw 17%, JEF United Chiba 11%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.