J1 LeagueYodoko Sakura Stadium, Osaka28°8 km/h

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    Cerezo OsakaCerezo OsakaPossession control
    2–1
    Fagiano OkayamaFagiano OkayamaLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Cerezo Osaka (39%)Best value by the model: 2 · Fagiano Okayama @ 3.67 (+15 %)

    Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama · J1 League

    1 · Cerezo Osaka 39%X 30%31% Fagiano Okayama · 2

    Analysis: Cerezo Osaka – Fagiano Okayama

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Two matches into their head-to-head history since 2023, Cerezo Osaka have emerged victorious on both occasions against Fagiano Okayama. While this small sample size doesn’t pack the analytical punch of larger datasets, it aligns with Cerezo Osaka's slightly superior league standing and expected points tally. With Cerezo Osaka scoring in 12 consecutive league outings, their offensive consistency has been a thorn in the side of many defenses, and yet their xG per match of 1.5 suggests they might not always make the most of their chances.

    Cerezo Osaka's style of possession control contrasts sharply with Fagiano Okayama’s low defense and direct play. The tactical clash will be intriguing; Okayama's defensive posture may frustrate an Osaka side that enjoys dictating play. With expected goals of 1.54 for Osaka and 1.04 for Okayama, the model suggests a narrow edge to the home side. The forecast for a 1-1 scoreline as the most likely outcome (12%) highlights the tight nature of this contest, with a 1-0 victory for Cerezo Osaka (11%) not far behind.

    The numbers point to a closely contested affair, with a model probability of 39% favoring Cerezo Osaka, but also a significant 31% chance for an upset with Fagiano Okayama. This creates an enticing value proposition with Pinnacle offering odds of 3.84 for an Okayama win, carrying a 20% edge. Additionally, the draw at 3.72 odds holds an 11% edge, reflecting the model's 30% probability.

    Given the expected goals and the playing styles, the under 2.5 goals market at 2.01 odds with Pinnacle presents a compelling case, carrying a 5% edge according to the model. In a matchup where Cerezo Osaka’s goal-scoring streak meets Okayama’s defensive resilience, the under could emerge as the canny punter's bet, especially if weather conditions lean towards suppressing goal festivity.

    Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka
    Form WWWLL
    League ranking xG #2xGA #19xT #3xP/match #13Points #10
    Key players
    • Rafael Rogério da SilvaFxG 0.56 · xT 0.05
    • Lucas FernandesRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.29
    • Sota KitanoCAMxG 0.24 · xT 0.10
    Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama
    Form LLDLW
    League ranking xG #16xGA #13xT #14xP/match #16Points #13
    Key players
    • Lucas Marcos MeirelesFxG 0.34 · xT 0.07
    • Ibuki FujitaFxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
    • Ryunosuke SatoLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.13
    Final score
    2 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Cerezo Osaka 39% · Draw 30% · Fagiano Okayama 31%

    Match prediction: Cerezo Osaka – Fagiano Okayama

    Predicted score matrix

    Fagiano Okayama →
    Cerezo Osaka →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.9%
    0–17.5%
    0–24.1%
    0–31.4%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–011.3%
    1–112.5%
    1–26.3%
    1–32.2%
    1–4+0.7%
    2
    2–09.0%
    2–19.4%
    2–24.9%
    2–31.7%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–04.6%
    3–14.8%
    3–22.5%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–02.5%
    4+–12.6%
    4+–21.4%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,54–1,04
    Both teams to score
    51%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,552%
    @1.91
    Over 2,548%
    @1.94

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Cerezo Osaka or draw (1X)75%
    • Under 3.5 goals74%

    Combined probability

    55%

    Fair odds

    1.83

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Cerezo Osaka or draw (1X)75%
    • Under 2.5 goals52%
    • Motohiko Nakajima to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score51%
    • Over 2.5 goals48%
    • Motohiko Nakajima to score26%
    • Yoshitake Suzuki to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Fagiano Okayama31% probability@3.67PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
    • X · Draw30% probability@3.51PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Cerezo OsakaX2 · Fagiano Okayama
    Pinnacle2.06
    EV+ 5%
    3.51
    EV+ 15%
    3.67

    Odds updated 8 Aug, 10:09

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 4 August — the odds have shortened from 2.01 to 1.91 (−5%).

    1+11 %
    51 %46 %

    1.85 → 2.06

    X-6 %
    29 %24 %

    3.73 → 3.51

    2-6 %
    28 %23 %

    3.92 → 3.67

    Over 2,5+8 %
    53 %48 %

    1.80 → 1.94

    Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Cerezo Osaka 2Draw 0Fagiano Okayama 0
    Goals: 4–2 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Cerezo Osaka have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Cerezo Osaka
    Fagiano Okayama
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Cerezo Osaka (60–57)
    Fagiano Okayama (34–43)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Cerezo Osaka
    Shinnosuke Hatanaka: 248 passningar, xT 0.24HatanakaRyosuke Shindo: 209 passningar, xT 0.1ShindoHayato Okuda: 196 passningar, xT 0.45OkudaShunta Tanaka: 188 passningar, xT 0.38TanakaKoki Fukui: 182 passningar, xT 0.11FukuiHinata Kida: 158 passningar, xT 0.42KidaMotohiko Nakajima: 105 passningar, xT 0.47NakajimaMasaya Shibayama: 98 passningar, xT 0.38ShibayamaThiago Andrade: 90 passningar, xT 0.42AndradeNiko Takahashi: 86 passningar, xT 0.27TakahashiDion-Johan Chai Cools: 80 passningar, xT 0.27Cools
    Fagiano Okayama
    Ataru Esaka: 125 passningar, xT 0.24EsakaDaichi Tagami: 125 passningar, xT 0.09TagamiRyunosuke Sato: 123 passningar, xT 0.74SatoEiji Miyamoto: 107 passningar, xT 0.04MiyamotoYoshitake Suzuki: 98 passningar, xT 0.34SuzukiYugo Tatsuta: 86 passningar, xT 0.22TatsutaYuta Kamiya: 74 passningar, xT 0.28KamiyaRyo Tabei: 70 passningar, xT 0.08TabeiKota Kudo: 63 passningar, xT 0.14KudoHaruka Motoyama: 53 passningar, xT 0.08MotoyamaKaito Abe: 50 passningar, xT 0.11Abe
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Cerezo Osaka
    Shinnosuke Hatanaka: 248 passningar, xT 0.24HatanakaRyosuke Shindo: 209 passningar, xT 0.1ShindoHayato Okuda: 196 passningar, xT 0.45OkudaShunta Tanaka: 188 passningar, xT 0.38TanakaKoki Fukui: 182 passningar, xT 0.11FukuiHinata Kida: 158 passningar, xT 0.42KidaMotohiko Nakajima: 105 passningar, xT 0.47NakajimaMasaya Shibayama: 98 passningar, xT 0.38ShibayamaThiago Andrade: 90 passningar, xT 0.42AndradeNiko Takahashi: 86 passningar, xT 0.27TakahashiDion-Johan Chai Cools: 80 passningar, xT 0.27Cools
    Fagiano Okayama
    Ataru Esaka: 125 passningar, xT 0.24EsakaDaichi Tagami: 125 passningar, xT 0.09TagamiRyunosuke Sato: 123 passningar, xT 0.74SatoEiji Miyamoto: 107 passningar, xT 0.04MiyamotoYoshitake Suzuki: 98 passningar, xT 0.34SuzukiYugo Tatsuta: 86 passningar, xT 0.22TatsutaYuta Kamiya: 74 passningar, xT 0.28KamiyaRyo Tabei: 70 passningar, xT 0.08TabeiKota Kudo: 63 passningar, xT 0.14KudoHaruka Motoyama: 53 passningar, xT 0.08MotoyamaKaito Abe: 50 passningar, xT 0.11Abe

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceCerezo OsakaFagiano Okayama
    Points5245
    xPoints49.546.5
    xG per match1.51.1
    xGA per match1.51.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.330.19
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.280.26
    Playing styleCerezo OsakaFagiano Okayama
    Build-up efficiency0.320.33
    Field tilt0.550.42
    xT per match1.10.82
    xTA per match11.1
    Won balls, offensive half2229
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.30.31
    Entries into the box per match1511
    Entries into the box against1314
    Passes per match443237
    Passes against per match346374
    Set piecesCerezo OsakaFagiano Okayama
    xG from free kicks0.050.05
    Corners per match5.64.9
    Corners against per match5.35.3
    xG per corner0.060.07
    xGA per corner against0.050.05
    OtherCerezo OsakaFagiano Okayama
    Throw-in control0.740.62
    The goalkeepersKoki Fukui (Cerezo Osaka)Svend Brodersen (Fagiano Okayama)
    Saves68113
    Save %62%75%
    xG prevented47%59%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Cerezo Osaka
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Fagiano Okayama
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama according to our model?

    The model gives Cerezo Osaka a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cerezo Osaka 39%, draw 30%, Fagiano Okayama 31%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.