J1 LeagueIAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka21°0,6 mm12 km/h

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    Shimizu S-PulseShimizu S-PulseLow block & direct
    vs
    Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. MarinosLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Shimizu S-Pulse (37%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.81 (+5 %)

    Shimizu S-Pulse – Yokohama F. Marinos · J1 League

    1 · Shimizu S-Pulse 37%X 30%34% Yokohama F. Marinos · 2

    Analysis: Shimizu S-Pulse – Yokohama F. Marinos

    Oscar Nilsson · · How the predictions work

    In this J1 League matchup, the probabilities lean slightly towards Shimizu S-Pulse, with a 37% chance of victory compared to Yokohama F. Marinos' 34%. It's a close contest, but what's striking is the model's inclination towards a lower-scoring affair. The under 2.5 goals market is pegged at 42%, suggesting a cagey encounter is on the cards, especially with both teams adopting a low defence and direct playing style.

    Shimizu S-Pulse, with 3 points to their name in the head-to-head clashes since 2023, have demonstrated a slight edge over Yokohama F. Marinos, who have none. However, the head-to-head sample is small, comprising just two matches, so its weight in the analysis is light. Yet, the expected goals (xG) tell a more nuanced story, showing Shimizu S-Pulse with an xG of 1.22 and Yokohama F. Marinos closely behind at 1.15. This subtle edge for Shimizu, coupled with their stronger defensive metrics of 0.97 xGA per match compared to Marinos' 2.4, indicates a potential for a narrow win or a draw.

    Yokohama F. Marinos are no strangers to attacking flair, but their defensive vulnerabilities could play into Shimizu's hands, especially in a tightly-contested showdown. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 13% reflects the parity and the likelihood of both teams getting on the scoresheet. However, the numbers gently sway the prediction towards Shimizu S-Pulse edging it 1-0, with an 11% chance.

    The shrewdest betting angle here is the under 2.5 goals market, which Pinnacle offers at 1.84 odds and provides a notable 7% value edge according to the model. Given the defensive postures and the relatively low expected goals, this market stands out as the most compelling bet, underscoring the expectation of a tight, low-scoring affair.

    Shimizu S-PulseShimizu S-Pulse
    Form WLLLW
    League ranking xG #7xGA #7xT #14xP/match #3Points #9
    Key players
    • Toshiki TakahashiFxG 0.44 · xT -0.01
    • Koya KitagawaFxG 0.42 · xT 0.04
    • Reon YamaharaLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.22
    Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos
    Form WWWLL
    League ranking xG #6xGA #19xT #15xP/match #8Points #12
    Key players
    • Taisei InoueRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.02
    • Kei ChinenFxG 0.00 · xT 0.00
    • Jeison QuinonesCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.03

    Match prediction: Shimizu S-Pulse – Yokohama F. Marinos

    Predicted score matrix

    Yokohama F. Marinos →
    Shimizu S-Pulse →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.8%
    0–110.4%
    0–26.2%
    0–32.4%
    0–4+0.9%
    1
    1–011.1%
    1–113.5%
    1–27.5%
    1–32.9%
    1–4+1.1%
    2
    2–07.0%
    2–18.0%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.8%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–02.8%
    3–13.2%
    3–21.9%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–01.1%
    4+–11.3%
    4+–20.7%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.0-110%
    4. 4.0-010%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,22–1,15
    Both teams to score
    48%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,4
    Under 2,558%
    @1.81EV+3%
    Over 2,542%
    @2.02

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Shimizu S-Pulse or draw (1X)66%
    • Under 3.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    52%

    Fair odds

    1.92

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Shimizu S-Pulse or draw (1X)66%
    • Under 2.5 goals58%
    • Se-Hun Oh to score26%

    Combined probability

    11%

    Fair odds

    9.34

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score48%
    • Over 2.5 goals42%
    • Kaina Tanimura to score26%
    • Jeison Estiven Quiñónes Botina to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    2%

    Fair odds

    53.18

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.558% probability@1.81PinnacleEV+5%
    • Under 2.558% probability@1.78BetsafeEV+3%
    • Under 2.558% probability@1.78BetssonEV+3%
    Bookmaker1 · Shimizu S-PulseX2 · Yokohama F. Marinos
    Betsafe2.403.152.82
    Betsson2.403.152.82
    Nordicbet2.403.152.82
    Pinnacle2.483.272.91

    Odds updated 12 Aug, 15:55

    Odds movement

    1+1 %
    41 %36 %

    2.46 → 2.48

    X-1 %
    31 %26 %

    3.30 → 3.27

    20 %
    35 %30 %

    2.91 → 2.91

    Over 2,5+2 %
    50 %45 %

    1.98 → 2.02

    Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 08/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Shimizu S-Pulse 1Draw 0Yokohama F. Marinos 1
    Goals: 4–5 (⌀ 4,5)

    Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Shimizu S-Pulse
    Yokohama F. Marinos
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Shimizu S-Pulse (1–0)
    Yokohama F. Marinos (3–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Shimizu S-Pulse
    Mateus Brunetti Valor: 18 passningar, xT 0.04ValorHidehiro Sugai: 18 passningar, xT 0.22SugaiYudai Shimamoto: 17 passningar, xT 0.03ShimamotoJackson Diego Ibraim Fagundes: 13 passningar, xT 0.02FagundesSeung-Wook Park: 10 passningar, xT 0ParkKoya Kitagawa: 10 passningar, xT 0.19KitagawaTomoya Fujii: 8 passningar, xT 0.11FujiiSe-Hun Oh: 8 passningar, xT -0.04OhRyo Germain: 8 passningar, xT 0.05GermainTogo Umeda: 8 passningar, xT 0.05UmedaYuki Honda: 7 passningar, xT 0Honda
    Yokohama F. Marinos
    Kosei Suwama: 28 passningar, xT 0.03SuwamaJeison Quinones: 26 passningar, xT 0.03QuinonesTaisei Inoue: 21 passningar, xT 0.02InoueRubén Blanco Veiga: 20 passningar, xT 0.06VeigaKosuke Matsumura: 16 passningar, xT -0.01MatsumuraKei Chinen: 11 passningar, xT 0ChinenRyotaro Tsunoda: 11 passningar, xT 0.01TsunodaJun Amano: 10 passningar, xT 0.26AmanoTomoki Kondo: 9 passningar, xT 0.11KondoShin Miidera: 7 passningar, xT 0.03MiideraRyo Miyaichi: 7 passningar, xT 0.01Miyaichi
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Shimizu S-Pulse
    Mateus Brunetti Valor: 18 passningar, xT 0.04ValorHidehiro Sugai: 18 passningar, xT 0.22SugaiYudai Shimamoto: 17 passningar, xT 0.03ShimamotoJackson Diego Ibraim Fagundes: 13 passningar, xT 0.02FagundesSeung-Wook Park: 10 passningar, xT 0ParkKoya Kitagawa: 10 passningar, xT 0.19KitagawaTomoya Fujii: 8 passningar, xT 0.11FujiiSe-Hun Oh: 8 passningar, xT -0.04OhRyo Germain: 8 passningar, xT 0.05GermainTogo Umeda: 8 passningar, xT 0.05UmedaYuki Honda: 7 passningar, xT 0Honda
    Yokohama F. Marinos
    Kosei Suwama: 28 passningar, xT 0.03SuwamaJeison Quinones: 26 passningar, xT 0.03QuinonesTaisei Inoue: 21 passningar, xT 0.02InoueRubén Blanco Veiga: 20 passningar, xT 0.06VeigaKosuke Matsumura: 16 passningar, xT -0.01MatsumuraKei Chinen: 11 passningar, xT 0ChinenRyotaro Tsunoda: 11 passningar, xT 0.01TsunodaJun Amano: 10 passningar, xT 0.26AmanoTomoki Kondo: 9 passningar, xT 0.11KondoShin Miidera: 7 passningar, xT 0.03MiideraRyo Miyaichi: 7 passningar, xT 0.01Miyaichi

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceShimizu S-PulseYokohama F. Marinos
    Points30
    xPoints2.21.7
    xG per match1.61.6
    xGA per match0.972.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.340.46
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.080.23
    Playing styleShimizu S-PulseYokohama F. Marinos
    Build-up efficiency0.310.3
    Field tilt0.210.29
    xT per match0.760.76
    xTA per match1.51.2
    Won balls, offensive half3026
    Pressing intensity0.230.2
    Pressing efficiency0.260.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.260.15
    Entries into the box per match145
    Entries into the box against1715
    Pass completion %0.560.6
    Pass completion % under pressure0.520.59
    Passes per match136163
    Passes against per match558438
    Switches of play per match16.310.9
    Long balls per match2215
    Set piecesShimizu S-PulseYokohama F. Marinos
    xG from free kicks0.040
    Corners per match7.10
    Corners against per match13.38.2
    xG per corner00
    xGA per corner against0.010.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.290
    First touch, defensive corners %0.690.56
    OtherShimizu S-PulseYokohama F. Marinos
    Throw-in control0.520.71
    The goalkeepersTogo Umeda (Shimizu S-Pulse)Kosei Suwama (Yokohama F. Marinos)
    Saves63
    Save %100%100%
    xG prevented100%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Shimizu S-Pulse vs Yokohama F. Marinos according to our model?

    The model gives Shimizu S-Pulse a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Shimizu S-Pulse 37%, draw 30%, Yokohama F. Marinos 34%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.