J1 LeagueAjinomoto Stadium, Tokyo24°17,8 mm9 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Tokyo VerdyTokyo VerdyLow block & direct
    vs
    Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa ReysolBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 2 · Kashiwa Reysol (42%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.30 (+8 %)

    Tokyo Verdy – Kashiwa Reysol · J1 League

    1 · Tokyo Verdy 25%X 33%42% Kashiwa Reysol · 2

    Analysis: Tokyo Verdy – Kashiwa Reysol

    Sofia Andersson · · How the predictions work

    Seven straight wins tell a compelling story even before the teams set foot on the pitch. Kashiwa Reysol's formidable form is a testament to their current dominance in the J1 League. They have found the back of the net in eight consecutive league matches, a streak that underscores their attacking prowess. Tokyo Verdy, meanwhile, might provide a tighter contest than their solitary point from recent matches suggests, especially given their knack for generating xG and xPoints advantages. But the real question is whether they can convert their potential into actual goals against a team riding high.

    Kashiwa Reysol's balanced and physical style gives them an edge over Tokyo Verdy's direct approach, especially in wet conditions that are expected to suppress goals. Rainfall of 17.8 mm can bog down fast-paced attacks, and Tokyo Verdy's low defence might find it harder to fend off Kashiwa's persistent pressure. The model's lean towards Kashiwa Reysol with a 42% likelihood, despite Tokyo Verdy's home advantage, is telling. A 1-1 draw (13%) leads the way as the most likely scoreline, reflecting a cautious outlook influenced by the weather and tactical matchups.

    Tokyo Verdy's head-to-head record against Kashiwa Reysol is evenly balanced with a small sample size of just four matches, diluting its significance against the current form. Despite having higher xG and xPoints, Verdy's league performance hasn't materialized into consistent wins. However, if you're looking to take a punt, the draw at odds of 3.39 with Pinnacle (11% edge) stands out as a value bet. The draw is also notably appealing with Betsafe at odds of 3.2 (5% edge).

    For those tempted by Tokyo Verdy's potential, betting on a home win at odds of 4.41 with Pinnacle offers value. Yet, banking on Tokyo Verdy to halt Kashiwa's streak feels like an uphill task. With over 2.5 goals predicted at just 41%, expect this match to be a tight affair, likely tilting towards the lower scoring end, and ending possibly in a 0-1 or even 0-0 stalemate.

    Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy
    Form LDLLD
    League ranking xG #5xGA #10xT #7xP/match #2Points #10
    Key players
    • Itsuki SomenoFxG 0.37 · xT 0.05
    • Hiroto TaniguchiCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.10
    • Koki MoritaCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
    Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol
    Form WWWWW
    League ranking xG #9xGA #13xT #20xP/match #7Points #5
    Key players
    • Tojiro KuboRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.23
    • Yoshio KoizumiRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.14
    • Mao HosoyaFxG 0.59 · xT 0.07

    Match prediction: Tokyo Verdy – Kashiwa Reysol

    Predicted score matrix

    Kashiwa Reysol →
    Tokyo Verdy →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–010.0%
    0–112.0%
    0–28.0%
    0–33.4%
    0–4+1.5%
    1
    1–09.8%
    1–113.4%
    1–28.4%
    1–33.6%
    1–4+1.5%
    2
    2–05.3%
    2–16.9%
    2–24.4%
    2–31.9%
    2–4+0.8%
    3
    3–01.9%
    3–12.4%
    3–21.6%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–00.6%
    4+–10.8%
    4+–20.5%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-112%
    3. 3.0-010%
    4. 4.1-010%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,05–1,29
    Both teams to score
    48%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,3
    Under 2,559%
    @1.58
    Over 2,541%
    @2.25

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Kashiwa Reysol or draw (X2)70%
    • Under 3.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    55%

    Fair odds

    1.81

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Kashiwa Reysol or draw (X2)70%
    • Under 2.5 goals59%
    • Yuki Kakita to score27%

    Combined probability

    12%

    Fair odds

    8.58

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score48%
    • Over 2.5 goals41%
    • Yuki Kakita to score27%
    • Rei Hirakawa to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    2%

    Fair odds

    56.34

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • X · Draw33% probability@3.30PinnacleEV+8%
    • 1 · Tokyo Verdy25% probability@4.15PinnacleEV+5%
    • X · Draw33% probability@3.15BetsafeEV+3%
    Bookmaker1 · Tokyo VerdyX2 · Kashiwa Reysol
    Betsafe
    EV+ 2%
    4.05
    EV+ 3%
    3.15    		1.92
    Betsson
    EV+ 2%
    4.05
    EV+ 3%
    3.15    		1.92
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 2%
    4.05
    EV+ 3%
    3.15    		1.92
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 5%
    4.15
    EV+ 8%
    3.30    		2.00

    Odds updated 13 Aug, 14:12

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Tokyo Verdy win since 9 August — the odds have shortened from 4.69 to 4.15 (−12%).

    1-12 %
    24 %19 %

    4.69 → 4.15

    X-5 %
    31 %26 %

    3.48 → 3.30

    2+12 %
    53 %48 %

    1.79 → 2.00

    Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 13/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Tokyo Verdy 1Draw 2Kashiwa Reysol 1
    Goals: 4–6 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Kashiwa Reysol come into this round on 7 straight wins.
    • Kashiwa Reysol have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Tokyo Verdy
    Kashiwa Reysol
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Tokyo Verdy (1–1)
    Kashiwa Reysol (2–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Tokyo Verdy
    Rei Hirakawa: 26 passningar, xT 0.02HirakawaSoma Meshino: 24 passningar, xT 0.06MeshinoNaoki Hayashi: 22 passningar, xT 0.09HayashiKaito Suzuki: 21 passningar, xT 0.03SuzukiKazuya Miyahara: 21 passningar, xT 0.17MiyaharaYosuke Uchida: 20 passningar, xT 0.19UchidaYuya Fukuda: 17 passningar, xT -0.11FukudaItsuki Someno: 13 passningar, xT 0.42SomenoShuhei Mizoguchi: 13 passningar, xT 0.15MizoguchiMatheus Caldeira Vidotto de Oliveria: 11 passningar, xT 0.08OliveriaRyosuke Shirai: 6 passningar, xT -0.02Shirai
    Kashiwa Reysol
    Taiyo Koga: 79 passningar, xT 0.1KogaNobuteru Nakagawa: 66 passningar, xT 0.07NakagawaKoki Kumasaka: 66 passningar, xT 0.03KumasakaDaiki Sugioka: 59 passningar, xT 0.08SugiokaWataru Harada: 53 passningar, xT 0.03HaradaYoshio Koizumi: 39 passningar, xT 0.06KoizumiTojiro Kubo: 34 passningar, xT 0KuboRyosuke Kojima: 30 passningar, xT 0KojimaKeita Endo: 28 passningar, xT 0.05EndoHinata Yamauchi: 28 passningar, xT 0YamauchiYusuke Segawa: 10 passningar, xT -0.02Segawa
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Tokyo Verdy
    Rei Hirakawa: 26 passningar, xT 0.02HirakawaSoma Meshino: 24 passningar, xT 0.06MeshinoNaoki Hayashi: 22 passningar, xT 0.09HayashiKaito Suzuki: 21 passningar, xT 0.03SuzukiKazuya Miyahara: 21 passningar, xT 0.17MiyaharaYosuke Uchida: 20 passningar, xT 0.19UchidaYuya Fukuda: 17 passningar, xT -0.11FukudaItsuki Someno: 13 passningar, xT 0.42SomenoShuhei Mizoguchi: 13 passningar, xT 0.15MizoguchiMatheus Caldeira Vidotto de Oliveria: 11 passningar, xT 0.08OliveriaRyosuke Shirai: 6 passningar, xT -0.02Shirai
    Kashiwa Reysol
    Taiyo Koga: 79 passningar, xT 0.1KogaNobuteru Nakagawa: 66 passningar, xT 0.07NakagawaKoki Kumasaka: 66 passningar, xT 0.03KumasakaDaiki Sugioka: 59 passningar, xT 0.08SugiokaWataru Harada: 53 passningar, xT 0.03HaradaYoshio Koizumi: 39 passningar, xT 0.06KoizumiTojiro Kubo: 34 passningar, xT 0KuboRyosuke Kojima: 30 passningar, xT 0KojimaKeita Endo: 28 passningar, xT 0.05EndoHinata Yamauchi: 28 passningar, xT 0YamauchiYusuke Segawa: 10 passningar, xT -0.02Segawa

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceTokyo VerdyKashiwa Reysol
    Points13
    xPoints2.31.8
    xG per match2.31.4
    xGA per match1.31.5
    xG within 8s of winning the ball1.20.3
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.330.12
    Playing styleTokyo VerdyKashiwa Reysol
    Build-up efficiency0.280.31
    Field tilt0.250.49
    xT per match1.30.47
    xTA per match1.61.1
    Won balls, offensive half2718
    Pressing intensity0.250.22
    Pressing efficiency0.250.23
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.20.14
    Entries into the box per match178
    Entries into the box against1616
    Pass completion %0.670.85
    Pass completion % under pressure0.640.74
    Passes per match214536
    Passes against per match583447
    Switches of play per match13.342.7
    Long balls per match2537
    Set piecesTokyo VerdyKashiwa Reysol
    xG from free kicks0.020
    Corners per match4.11
    Corners against per match4.15.2
    xG per corner0.040
    xGA per corner against00.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.751
    First touch, defensive corners %0.750.8
    OtherTokyo VerdyKashiwa Reysol
    Throw-in control0.760.79
    The goalkeepersMatheus Caldeira Vidotto de Oliveria (Tokyo Verdy)Wataru Harada (Kashiwa Reysol)
    Saves34
    Save %75%100%
    xG prevented52%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Tokyo Verdy vs Kashiwa Reysol according to our model?

    The model gives Kashiwa Reysol a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tokyo Verdy 25%, draw 33%, Kashiwa Reysol 42%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos
    3–4
    Kashima AntlersKashima Antlers
    1 25%X 30%2 45%
    The model called the outcome
    Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka
    4–3
    Urawa RedsUrawa Reds
    1 38%X 26%2 36%
    The model called the outcome
    Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus
    0–1
    Shimizu S-PulseShimizu S-Pulse
    1 43%X 27%2 30%
    The model missed the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.