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    Tegevajaro MiyazakiTegevajaro Miyazaki
    vs
    Shonan BellmareShonan Bellmare
    The model's lean: 1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki (52%)
    Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

    Tegevajaro Miyazaki – Shonan Bellmare · J2 League

    1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 52%X 28%20% Shonan Bellmare · 2

    Analysis: Tegevajaro Miyazaki – Shonan Bellmare

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    52% — that's the key number heading into the clash between Tegevajaro Miyazaki and Shonan Bellmare in the J2 League. The model gives the home side a solid chance of walking away with the three points, underscoring a trend that has seen them outperform the visitors in recent times. The likely scorelines back this up, with a 1-0 victory for Tegevajaro Miyazaki at 13% probability standing out as the most plausible outcome.

    Tegevajaro Miyazaki have been effective, if not prolific, in front of goal, boasting an expected goals (xG) figure of 1.69. Their approach has been to control games through a solid defensive setup, and this has paid dividends thus far. Shonan Bellmare, however, enter this contest with a modest 0.84 xG, suggesting they're likely to struggle against a well-organized Miyazaki side. The low xG for Shonan hints at a stifled attack, which seems unlikely to spring a surprise against the hosts.

    Numbers like 46% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score suggest a tight affair rather than an open one. The under 2.5 goals is a plausible play here, with the weather, if inclement, potentially further suppressing what attacking verve either side might muster. This means bettors looking for value should consider a low-scoring game.

    Tegevajaro Miyazaki lead the charge with a 2-0 win pegged at an 11% likelihood, reflecting their steadiness at home. The scale tilts heavily in their favor not only because of Shonan's scoring woes but also due to a small head-to-head sample that doesn't significantly alter the current form book.

    For the punters among us, the bookmaker odds are where the sharpest angle lies. Bookmaker XYZ offers compelling odds for Tegevajaro Miyazaki at 2.10, marking this as a value bet in a matchup where Miyazaki's superiority looks set to shine through. This game may not flood the nets with goals, but a calculated punt on the home win seems the most promising wager.

    Tegevajaro MiyazakiTegevajaro Miyazaki
    Form LD
    Key players
    • Yota ShimokawaLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.08
    • Yusei ToshidaFxG 0.34 · xT -0.11
    • Hikaru ManabeCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.07
    Shonan BellmareShonan Bellmare
    Form WW
    Key players
    • Sere MatsumuraLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
    • Soki TamuraLWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.02
    • Naoki KaseRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.22

    Match prediction: Tegevajaro Miyazaki – Shonan Bellmare

    Predicted score matrix

    Shonan Bellmare →
    Tegevajaro Miyazaki →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.3%
    0–16.4%
    0–22.8%
    0–30.8%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–013.1%
    1–111.6%
    1–24.7%
    1–31.3%
    1–4+0.3%
    2
    2–011.4%
    2–19.6%
    2–24.0%
    2–31.1%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–06.4%
    3–15.4%
    3–22.3%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–04.0%
    4+–13.3%
    4+–21.4%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-013%
    2. 2.1-112%
    3. 3.2-011%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,69–0,84
    Both teams to score
    47%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,554%
    @1.65
    Over 2,546%
    @2.12

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Tegevajaro Miyazaki to win52%
    • Under 3.5 goals75%

    Combined probability

    41%

    Fair odds

    2.47

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Tegevajaro Miyazaki to win52%
    • Under 2.5 goals54%
    • Yusei Toshida to score30%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score47%
    • Over 2.5 goals46%
    • Yusei Toshida to score30%
    • Kazuki Dohana to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki52% probability@2.42BetsafeEV+25%reference odds
    • 1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki52% probability@2.42BetssonEV+25%reference odds
    • 1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki52% probability@2.42NordicbetEV+25%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Tegevajaro MiyazakiX2 · Shonan Bellmare
    Betsafe
    EV+ 25%
    2.42    		3.102.75
    Betsson
    EV+ 25%
    2.42    		3.102.75
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 25%
    2.42    		3.102.75

    Odds updated 19 Aug, 05:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Shonan Bellmare win since 18 August — the odds have shortened from 3.15 to 2.75 (−13%).

    1+14 %
    45 %35 %

    2.12 → 2.42

    X-3 %
    34 %24 %

    3.20 → 3.10

    2-13 %
    36 %26 %

    3.15 → 2.75

    Over 2,50 %
    49 %39 %

    2.12 → 2.12

    Betsson · 4 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 19/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Tegevajaro Miyazaki
    Shonan Bellmare
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Tegevajaro Miyazaki (1–2)
    Shonan Bellmare (2–0)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Tegevajaro Miyazaki
    Yota Shimokawa: 103 passningar, xT 0.24ShimokawaHikaru Manabe: 89 passningar, xT 0.15ManabeEisuke Watanabe: 88 passningar, xT 0.26WatanabeRiku Yamauchi: 58 passningar, xT 0YamauchiKengo Kuroki: 57 passningar, xT 0.08KurokiKoji Okumura: 55 passningar, xT 0.07OkumuraRyoya Kimura: 54 passningar, xT 0.09KimuraRen Inoue: 42 passningar, xT -0.09InoueYuma Matsumoto: 39 passningar, xT 0.05MatsumotoKaiga Murakoshi: 37 passningar, xT 0.04MurakoshiSoichiro Tsutsumi: 27 passningar, xT 0.13Tsutsumi
    Shonan Bellmare
    Shohei Takeda: 90 passningar, xT -0.27TakedaYutaro Hakamata: 79 passningar, xT 0.24HakamataSere Matsumura: 73 passningar, xT 0.09MatsumuraKazuki Dohana: 65 passningar, xT -0.12DohanaArthur Silva Feitoza: 62 passningar, xT 0.17FeitozaYuto Suzuki: 60 passningar, xT 0.14SuzukiSoki Tamura: 37 passningar, xT 0.05TamuraNaoki Kase: 36 passningar, xT 0.25KaseTaiyo Nishino: 21 passningar, xT -0.01NishinoKota Sanada: 18 passningar, xT 0.05SanadaHiroto Yamada: 16 passningar, xT -0.02Yamada
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Tegevajaro Miyazaki
    Yota Shimokawa: 103 passningar, xT 0.24ShimokawaHikaru Manabe: 89 passningar, xT 0.15ManabeEisuke Watanabe: 88 passningar, xT 0.26WatanabeRiku Yamauchi: 58 passningar, xT 0YamauchiKengo Kuroki: 57 passningar, xT 0.08KurokiKoji Okumura: 55 passningar, xT 0.07OkumuraRyoya Kimura: 54 passningar, xT 0.09KimuraRen Inoue: 42 passningar, xT -0.09InoueYuma Matsumoto: 39 passningar, xT 0.05MatsumotoKaiga Murakoshi: 37 passningar, xT 0.04MurakoshiSoichiro Tsutsumi: 27 passningar, xT 0.13Tsutsumi
    Shonan Bellmare
    Shohei Takeda: 90 passningar, xT -0.27TakedaYutaro Hakamata: 79 passningar, xT 0.24HakamataSere Matsumura: 73 passningar, xT 0.09MatsumuraKazuki Dohana: 65 passningar, xT -0.12DohanaArthur Silva Feitoza: 62 passningar, xT 0.17FeitozaYuto Suzuki: 60 passningar, xT 0.14SuzukiSoki Tamura: 37 passningar, xT 0.05TamuraNaoki Kase: 36 passningar, xT 0.25KaseTaiyo Nishino: 21 passningar, xT -0.01NishinoKota Sanada: 18 passningar, xT 0.05SanadaHiroto Yamada: 16 passningar, xT -0.02Yamada
    The goalkeepersRyoya Kimura (Tegevajaro Miyazaki)Kota Sanada (Shonan Bellmare)
    Saves46
    Save %67%100%
    xG prevented25%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Shonan Bellmare according to our model?

    The model gives Tegevajaro Miyazaki a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 52%, draw 28%, Shonan Bellmare 20%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.