01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Dundee FC or draw (1X)67%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
Scottish PremiershipDens Park, Dundee17°0,2 mm28 km/h
Läs på svenska
Dundee FCCounter-attacks & crosses0–0
AberdeenCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Dundee FC (40%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 4.00 (+14 %)
Dundee FC – Aberdeen · Scottish Premiership
1 · Dundee FC 40%X 29%32% Aberdeen · 2
40%
29%
32%
Analysis: Dundee FC – Aberdeen
Erik Lindberg · · How the predictions work
Four goals and a bit per game — that's the eyebrow-raising average when Dundee squares off against Aberdeen FC since 2023. But don't let the historical fireworks blind you to the subtler dynamics at play this time around. The model sees a sharper edge for Dundee, giving them a 40% chance of victory, slightly outstripping Aberdeen FC's 32%. It's a tight call, but in the world of betting, it's all about finding those margins.
Aberdeen FC might boast a 5-2 head-to-head advantage in their seven recent encounters, but this is a small sample size, and Dundee's home odds at 2.82 with Pinnacle carry a tasty 12% value edge. With both teams relying heavily on counter-attacks and crosses, the match could easily turn into a tactical stalemate, rather than a goal fest. The expected goals tell a tale of parity: Dundee at 1.31 versus Aberdeen FC's 1.18, which aligns with the most likely 1-1 scoreline, at 13%.
Dundee, despite their struggle in putting points on the board, might find solace in the fact that Aberdeen FC hasn't exactly been overwhelmingly dominant in terms of xPoints (1.7 vs Dundee's 1.3). Moreover, the weather looks to be behaving, so expect the usual pace and aggression without nature's intervention.
While goals have flowed in previous meetings, the model suggests a lean towards under 2.5 goals, with a 45% probability but a solid value play at odds of 2.0 with Bet365. This, combined with the model's lean towards a Dundee win, paints a picture of a tightly contested match that could swing narrowly in favor of the home side. If you're looking for an interesting punt, the under 1.5 goals at 4.0 with Bet365 also offers a juicy 14% value edge. But remember, betting is a game of probabilities, not certainties.
Dundee FCForm WWLWL
League ranking xG #9xGA #10xT #9xP/match #7Points #7
Key players
- Ashley HayFxG 0.37 · xT 0.04
- Joe WestleyFxG 0.16 · xT 0.01
- Cameron Mark CongreveRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.18
AberdeenForm DWLLW
League ranking xG #2xGA #7xT #8xP/match #4Points #3
Key players
- Kevin Michael NisbetFxG 1.14 · xT 0.00
- Daniel Keith HappeCBxG 0.16 · xT 0.10
- Lewis William MayoCBxG 1.11 · xT 0.08
Final score
0 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Dundee FC 40% · Draw 29% · Aberdeen 32%
Match prediction: Dundee FC – Aberdeen
Predicted score matrix
Aberdeen →
Dundee FC →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.6%
0–19.4%
0–25.7%
0–32.3%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–010.5%
1–113.2%
1–27.5%
1–33.0%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.1%
2–18.4%
2–25.0%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–03.1%
3–13.7%
3–22.2%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–11.6%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,31–1,18
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,555%
@2.01EV+9%
Over 2,545%
@1.86
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Dundee FC or draw (1X)67%
- Under 2.5 goals55%
- Charlie Reilly to score13%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Olutoyosi Tajudeen Oludamilola Olusanya to score24%
- Afeez Aremu Olalekan to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 1.529% probability@4.00Bet365EV+14%
- 1 · Dundee FC40% probability@2.78PinnacleEV+10%
- Under 2.555% probability@2.01PinnacleEV+10%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Dundee FC | X | 2 · Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.50 | EV+ 1% 3.50 | 2.63 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 10% 2.78 | 3.42 | 2.60 |
Odds updated 8 Aug, 10:09
Odds movement
1+4 %
37 %32 %
2.68 → 2.78
X+3 %
31 %26 %
3.32 → 3.42
2-2 %
39 %34 %
2.64 → 2.60
Over 2,5+1 %
54 %49 %
1.85 → 1.86
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
7 matchesDundee FC 2Draw 0Aberdeen 5
Goals: 10–19 (⌀ 4,1)
Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.
Key facts
- Aberdeen FC dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 2 in 7 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 4.1 goals per meeting on average.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Dundee FC
Aberdeen
Dundee FC (0–1)
Aberdeen (2–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Dundee FC
Aberdeen
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Dundee FC
Aberdeen
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Dundee FC | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | 3 |
| xPoints | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 2.6 |
| xGA per match | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0 | 0.01 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.2 | 0.26 |
| Playing style | Dundee FC | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| xT per match | 0.51 | 0.64 |
| xTA per match | 1.5 | 0.43 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 32 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 20 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.61 | 0.71 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| Passes per match | 218 | 284 |
| Passes against per match | 287 | 272 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.4 | 31.8 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 38 |
| Set pieces | Dundee FC | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 1.1 |
| Corners per match | 5.1 | 3.9 |
| Corners against per match | 10.2 | 5.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.1 |
| xGA per corner against | 0 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.5 |
| Other | Dundee FC | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.63 | 0.8 |
| The goalkeepers | Owen Olamidayo Goodman (Dundee FC) | Marius Müller (Aberdeen) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 3 | 3 |
| Save % | 75% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 46% | 59% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Dundee FC vs Aberdeen according to our model?
The model gives Dundee FC a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dundee FC 40%, draw 29%, Aberdeen 32%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.