Scottish PremiershipTynecastle Park, Edinburgh16°4,5 mm19 km/h

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    HeartsHeartsBalanced & physical
    4–0
    Dundee UnitedDundee UnitedCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Hearts (62%)

    Hearts – Dundee United · Scottish Premiership

    1 · Hearts 62%X 21%17% Dundee United · 2

    Analysis: Hearts – Dundee United

    Sofia Andersson · · How the predictions work

    Thirty-eight matches under their belt, Hearts boast a home win rate of 63%, a figure that speaks volumes as they prepare to host Dundee United. With a model probability favoring Hearts at 62%, the numbers paint a clear picture of the likely outcome at Tynecastle Park. However, rain and strong wind on match day could play a significant role, potentially tempering the goal tally in what is otherwise poised to be a largely one-sided affair.

    Dundee United may edge the standings on points and xPoints, but when it comes to xG per match, Hearts hold the upper hand, 1.6 to 1.3. This hints at the home side's attacking prowess, already evidenced by their streak of scoring in nine consecutive league matches. The defensive frailties of both teams, though, suggest vulnerabilities—Hearts' xGA of 2.6 stands stark against Dundee United's 2.2. Yet, Hearts' balanced and physical style seems well-suited to exploit Dundee United's weakness against crosses.

    Hearts have the psychological edge in head-to-head encounters since 2023, with a record of 3 wins to 2 losses in a small sample of 6 matches. While this sample size offers limited predictive power, it does reinforce the narrative of Hearts' dominance. The model leans towards a 2-0 or 1-0 victory, with the under 2.5 goals market appearing marginally undervalued given the weather conditions.

    For the betting aficionado, the sharpest angle is undoubtedly the EV+ on a Hearts win. Pinnacle offers odds of 1.632, with the model seeing a 62% probability—squeezing out a 1% edge. While no betting outcome is a given, the alignment of form, historical robustness at home, and model indication makes a Hearts victory the sensible stake.

    HeartsHearts
    Form WDWLL
    League ranking xG #6xGA #11xT #10xP/match #9Points #10
    Key players
    • Calvin MillerLWxG 0.15 · xT -0.04
    • Harry MilneLBxG 0.12 · xT 0.15
    • Oisin McenteeCBxG 0.22 · xT 0.03
    Dundee UnitedDundee United
    Form LLDDD
    League ranking xG #9xGA #10xT #9xP/match #7Points #7
    Key players
    • Ivan DolcekFxG 0.30 · xT 0.10
    • Zachary SapsfordFxG 0.35 · xT 0.08
    • Will FerryLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.33
    Final score
    4 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Hearts 62% · Draw 21% · Dundee United 17%

    Match prediction: Hearts – Dundee United

    Predicted score matrix

    Dundee United →
    Hearts →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.0%
    0–14.6%
    0–22.0%
    0–30.6%
    0–4+0.1%
    1
    1–011.3%
    1–110.0%
    1–24.1%
    1–31.2%
    1–4+0.3%
    2
    2–011.6%
    2–19.8%
    2–24.1%
    2–31.2%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–07.8%
    3–16.6%
    3–22.8%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–06.2%
    4+–15.3%
    4+–22.2%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-012%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.1-110%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.3-08%
    Expected goals
    2,01–0,84
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,546%
    @2.14
    Over 2,554%
    @1.76

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Hearts to win62%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    53%

    Fair odds

    1.89

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Hearts to win62%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Jordi Altena to score21%

    Combined probability

    9%

    Fair odds

    11.59

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Jordi Altena to score21%
    • Vicko Ševelj to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    2%

    Fair odds

    62.29

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Hearts62% probability@1.70PinnacleEV+5%
    Bookmaker1 · HeartsX2 · Dundee United
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 5%
    1.70    		4.164.78

    Odds updated 9 Aug, 04:52

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Dundee United win since 2 August — the odds have shortened from 6.54 to 4.78 (−27%).

    1+16 %
    65 %55 %

    1.47 → 1.70

    X-6 %
    27 %17 %

    4.41 → 4.16

    2-27 %
    22 %12 %

    6.54 → 4.78

    Over 2,5+2 %
    60 %50 %

    1.74 → 1.76

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 02/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    6 matches
    Hearts 3Draw 1Dundee United 2
    Goals: 8–5 (⌀ 2,2)

    Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Hearts have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
    • Hearts win 63% of their home matches all-time (38 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Hearts
    Dundee United
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Hearts (1–2)
    Dundee United (1–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Hearts
    Harry Milne: 41 passningar, xT 0.15MilneOisin Mcentee: 36 passningar, xT 0.04McenteeBlair Thomas Spittal: 35 passningar, xT 0.2SpittalJordi Altena: 34 passningar, xT 0.01AltenaBeau Reus: 31 passningar, xT 0.03ReusCalvin Miller: 22 passningar, xT -0.04MillerClaudio Rafael Soares Braga: 20 passningar, xT -0.02BragaLaurent Mendy: 20 passningar, xT -0.01MendySabah Kerjota: 12 passningar, xT -0.02KerjotaStuart Findlay: 11 passningar, xT 0.02FindlaySeverin Sabri Guendouz: 9 passningar, xT 0.01Guendouz
    Dundee United
    Michael Forbes: 30 passningar, xT 0.01ForbesDylan Tait: 27 passningar, xT 0TaitVicko Sevelj: 22 passningar, xT -0.05SeveljWill Ferry: 22 passningar, xT 0.22FerryJack Walton: 22 passningar, xT 0.02WaltonEmmanuel Agyei: 17 passningar, xT -0.01AgyeiJoshua James Rawlins: 17 passningar, xT 0.03RawlinsBert Esselink: 16 passningar, xT 0.02EsselinkJesse Carmichael Randall: 13 passningar, xT 0.16RandallZachary Sapsford: 7 passningar, xT 0.01SapsfordPanutche Camara: 6 passningar, xT 0.01Camara
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Hearts
    Harry Milne: 41 passningar, xT 0.15MilneOisin Mcentee: 36 passningar, xT 0.04McenteeBlair Thomas Spittal: 35 passningar, xT 0.2SpittalJordi Altena: 34 passningar, xT 0.01AltenaBeau Reus: 31 passningar, xT 0.03ReusCalvin Miller: 22 passningar, xT -0.04MillerClaudio Rafael Soares Braga: 20 passningar, xT -0.02BragaLaurent Mendy: 20 passningar, xT -0.01MendySabah Kerjota: 12 passningar, xT -0.02KerjotaStuart Findlay: 11 passningar, xT 0.02FindlaySeverin Sabri Guendouz: 9 passningar, xT 0.01Guendouz
    Dundee United
    Michael Forbes: 30 passningar, xT 0.01ForbesDylan Tait: 27 passningar, xT 0TaitVicko Sevelj: 22 passningar, xT -0.05SeveljWill Ferry: 22 passningar, xT 0.22FerryJack Walton: 22 passningar, xT 0.02WaltonEmmanuel Agyei: 17 passningar, xT -0.01AgyeiJoshua James Rawlins: 17 passningar, xT 0.03RawlinsBert Esselink: 16 passningar, xT 0.02EsselinkJesse Carmichael Randall: 13 passningar, xT 0.16RandallZachary Sapsford: 7 passningar, xT 0.01SapsfordPanutche Camara: 6 passningar, xT 0.01Camara

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceHeartsDundee United
    Points01
    xPoints11.3
    xG per match1.61.3
    xGA per match2.62.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.260
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.010.2
    Playing styleHeartsDundee United
    Build-up efficiency0.330.34
    Field tilt0.640.24
    xT per match0.430.51
    xTA per match0.641.5
    Won balls, offensive half2127
    Pressing intensity0.210.28
    Pressing efficiency0.430.34
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.440.34
    Entries into the box per match88
    Entries into the box against920
    Pass completion %0.690.61
    Pass completion % under pressure0.530.54
    Passes per match272218
    Passes against per match284287
    Switches of play per match16.417.4
    Long balls per match2327
    Set piecesHeartsDundee United
    xG from free kicks00
    Corners per match5.85.1
    Corners against per match3.910.2
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.10
    First touch, offensive corners %0.50.4
    First touch, defensive corners %0.50.67
    OtherHeartsDundee United
    Throw-in control0.790.63
    The goalkeepersLaurent Mendy (Hearts)Jack Walton (Dundee United)
    Saves16
    Save %100%86%
    xG prevented100%88%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Hearts vs Dundee United according to our model?

    The model gives Hearts a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hearts 62%, draw 21%, Dundee United 17%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.